基于PSR模型的塔里木河流域生态脆弱性评价
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摘要
采用"压力-状态-响应"(PSR)评价框架,结合模糊层次分析法定量评价塔里木河流域2005—2015年生态脆弱性,分析其时空分布和动态变化。研究结果表明:塔里木河流域2005—2015年生态脆弱性指数平均值为0. 538,处于重度脆弱Ⅲ级;生态脆弱性持续增加,综合指数最小值为2005年的1. 14,2009年到达一个峰值3. 07,2015年达到最大值3. 69;各地区的综合指数都处于2～3范围,总体呈现由西向东递增趋势,流域生态脆弱性空间分布呈现西低东高状态;研究时段内高度脆弱地区的脆弱性增加显著,而低度脆弱地区脆弱性变化不显著,处于中间过渡阶段。
Quantitative evaluation of the ecological vulnerability for the Tarim River Basin( TRB) in Xinjiang from2005 to 2015 was achieved through the combination of the Pressure-State-Response( PSR) model and the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process( FAHP). The distribution and dynamics of ecological vulnerability over the decade were analyzed after the establishment of evaluation system. The results show that the ecological vulnerability in the TRB during the time of 2005-2015 is at Heavy level Ⅲ with the average value of 0.538,and shows a continuously rising trend. The ecological vulnerability synthetic index( EVSI),based on the different levels of ecological vulnerability over the time,has a minimum of 1.14 in 2005 as well as a maximum of 3.69 in 2015,and increases significantly with a fluctuation after reaching a peak of 3.07 in 2009. In addition,the ecological vulnerability in this basin displays a noticeable spatial distribution,which are strongly vulnerable areas mainly in the east with significantly increasing vulnerability and lightly vulnerable areas in the west at the transition stage of increase.
Quantitative evaluation of the ecological vulnerability for the Tarim River Basin( TRB) in Xinjiang from2005 to 2015 was achieved through the combination of the Pressure-State-Response( PSR) model and the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process( FAHP). The distribution and dynamics of ecological vulnerability over the decade were analyzed after the establishment of evaluation system. The results show that the ecological vulnerability in the TRB during the time of 2005-2015 is at Heavy level Ⅲ with the average value of 0.538,and shows a continuously rising trend. The ecological vulnerability synthetic index( EVSI),based on the different levels of ecological vulnerability over the time,has a minimum of 1.14 in 2005 as well as a maximum of 3.69 in 2015,and increases significantly with a fluctuation after reaching a peak of 3.07 in 2009. In addition,the ecological vulnerability in this basin displays a noticeable spatial distribution,which are strongly vulnerable areas mainly in the east with significantly increasing vulnerability and lightly vulnerable areas in the west at the transition stage of increase.
引文
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[24]赵跃龙,张玲娟.脆弱生态环境定量评价方法的研究[J].地理科学,1998,18(1):78-84.(ZHAO Yuelong,ZHANG Lingjuan. A study on index and method of quantitative assessment of fragile environment[J]. Progress in Geography,1998,18(1):78-84.(in Chinese))
[25]LIU Di,CAO Chunxiang,DUBOVYK O,et al. Using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process for spatio-temporal analysis of ecoenvironmental vulnerability change during 1990-2010 in Sanjiangyuan region,China[J]. Ecological Indicators,2017,73:612-625.
[26]薛英,王让会,张慧芝,等.塔里木河干流生态风险评价[J].干旱区研究,2008,25(4):562-567.(XUE Ying,WANG Ranghui,ZHANG Huizhi,et al. Ecological risk assessment of ecosystems in the mainstream area of the Tarim River[J]. Arid Zone Research,2008,25(4):562-567.(in Chinese))
[27]FENG Qi,LIU Wei,SI Jianhua,et al. Environmental effects of water resource development and use in the Tarim River Basin of Northwestern China[J]. Environmental Geology,2005,48(2):202-210.
[28]杨帆,薛联青,张洛晨,等.塔里木河生态水流情势分析及其适应性利用[J].水资源保护,2018,34(5):41-49.(YANG Fan,XUE Lianqing,ZHANG Luochen,et al. Analysis of ecological water regime in Tarim River and its adaptive utilization[J]. Water Resources Protection,2018,34(5):41-49.(in Chinese))
[29]薛联青,张卉,张洛晨,等.塔里木灌区引水前后环境流特性变化[J].水资源保护,2017,33(3):31-37.(XUE Lianqing,ZHANG Hui,ZHANG Luochen,et al.Changes in characteristics of environmental flow in Tarim irrigation area before and after water diversion[J]. Water Resources Protection,2017,33(3):31-37.(in Chinese))
[30]宋一凡,郭中小,卢亚静,等.一种基于SWAT模型的干旱牧区生态脆弱性评价方法:以艾布盖河流域为例[J].生态学报,2017,37(11):3805-3815.(SONG Yifan,GUO Zhongixao,LU Yajing,et al. An ecological vulnerability evaluation method for arid pasturing areas based on the SWAT model:a case study in the Aibugai Basin[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2017,37(11):3805-3815.(in Chinese))
[2] LI Bo,TONG Lianjun. Vulnerability and sustainable development mode of Coal Cities in Northeast China[J]. Chinese Geographical Science,2008,18(2):119-126.
[3] ZOU Taohong,KUNIHIKO Y. Environmental vulnerability evaluation using a spatial principal components approach in the Daxing’anling region,China[J]. Ecological Indicators,2017,78:405-415.
[4]HONG Wuyang,JIANG Renhong,YANG Chenyun,et al. Establishing an ecological vulnerability assessment indicator system for spatial recognition and management of ecologically vulnerable areas in highly urbanized regions:a case study of Shenzhen,China[J]. Ecological Indicators,2016,69:540-547.
[5]钟晓娟,孙保平,赵岩,等.基于主成分分析的云南省生态脆弱性评价[J].生态环境学报,2011,20(1):109-113.(ZHONG Xiaojuan,SUN Baoping,ZHAO Yan,et al. Ecological vulnerability evaluation based on principal component analysis in Yunnan Province[J]. Ecology and Environmental Sciences,2011,20(1):109-113.(in Chinese))
[6]牛文元.生态环境脆弱带ECOTONE的基础判定[J].生态学报,1989,9(2):97-105.(NIU Wenyuan. The discriminatory index with regard to the weakness,overlapness,and breadth of ECOTONE[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,1989,9(2),97-105.(in Chinese))
[7]杨明德.论喀斯特环境的脆弱性[J].云南地理环境研究,1990,2(1):21-29.(YANG Mingde. On the fragility of karst environment[J]. Yunnan Geographic Environment Research,1990,2(1):21-29.(in Chinese))
[8]徐广才,康慕谊,MARC M,等.锡林郭勒盟生态脆弱性[J].生态学报,2012,32(5):1643-1653.(XU Guangcai,KANG Muyi,MARC M,et al. Ecological vulnerability research for Xilingol League,Northern China[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2012,32(5):1643-1653.(in Chinese))
[9]田亚平,刘沛林,郑文武.南方丘陵区的生态脆弱度评估:以衡阳盆地为例[J].地理研究,2005,24(6):843-852.(TIAN Yaping,LIU Peilin,ZHENG Wenwu. Vulnerability assessment and analysis of hilly area in Southern China:a case study in the Hengyang Basin[J]. Geographical Research,2005,24(6):843-852.(in Chinese))
[10]ZHOU Xiaolei,YAN Yuee,WANG Hui,et al. Assessment of eco-environment vulnerability in the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau,China[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences,2010,63(4):667-674.
[11]FENG Qi,MA Hua,JIANG Xuemei,et al. What has caused desertification in China?[J]. Scientific Reports,2015,5:15998.
[12]XUE Lianqing,ZHU Boli,YANG Changbing,et al. Study on the characteristics of future precipitation in response to external changes over arid and humid basins[J]. Scientific Reports,2017,7:15148.
[13]WANG Huaijun,CHEN Yaning,DENG Haijun,et al. Detecting changes in extreme streamflow in the Tarim River,Northwest China[J]. Quaternary International,2015,380/381:149-158.
[14]GUO Ying,SHEN Yanjun. Agricultural water supply/demand changes under projected future climate change in the arid region of Northwestern China[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2016,540:257-273.
[15]AISHAN T,HALIK,CYFFKA B,et al. Monitoring the hydrological and ecological response to water diversion in the lower reaches of the Tarim River,Northwest China[J]. Quaternary International,2013,311(9):155-162.
[16]薛联青,张卉,张洛晨,等.基于改进RVA法的水利工程对塔里木河生态水文情势影响评估[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2017,45(3):189-196.(XUE Lianqing,ZHANG Hui,ZHANG Luochen,et al. Impact of water conservancy projects on eco-hydrological regime of Tarim River based on improved RVA method[J]. Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences),2017,45(3):189-196.(in Chinese))
[17]薛联青,杨帆,杨昌兵,等.外界胁迫作用下塔里木河流域径流变化响应的敏感性[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2018,46(1):1-6.(XUE Lianqing,YANG Fan,YANG Changbing,et al. Sensitivity analysis of the streamflow alteration subjected to climate changes and anthropogenic activities in the Tarim River Basin[J]. Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences),2018,46(1):1-6.(in Chinese))
[18]YU Guoan,DISSE M,HUANG Heqing,et al. River network evolution and fluvial process responses to human activity in a hyper-arid environment:case of the Tarim River in Northwest China[J]. Catena,2016,147:96-109.
[19]YU Yang,YU R,CHEN Xi,et al. Agricultural water allocation strategies along the oasis of Tarim River in Northwest China[J].Agricultural Water Management,2017,187:24-36.
[20]FEIKE T,MAMITIMIN Y,LI Lin,et al. Development of agricultural land and water use and its driving forces along the Aksu and Tarim River,P.R. China[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences,2015,73(2):517-531.
[21]YE Zhaoxia,CHEN Yaning,LI Weihong. Ecological water rights and water-resource exploitation in the three headwaters of the Tarim River[J]. Quaternary International,2014,336(12):20-25.
[22]曾庆敏,刘新平.基于主成分聚类分析法的塔里木河流域生态脆弱性评价:以巴音郭楞蒙古自治州为例[J].广东农业科学,2015,42(10):133-138.(ZENG Qingmin,LIU Xinping. Evaluation on ecological vulnerability of Tarim River Basin based on principal component-clustering analysis:taking Mongolia Autonomous Prefecture of Bayingolin as example[J].Guangdong Agricultural Sciences,2015,42(10):133-138.(in Chinese))
[23]李滨勇,陈海滨,唐海萍.基于AHP和模糊综合评判法的北疆各地州生态脆弱性评价[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2010,46(2):197-201.(LI Binyong,CHEN Haibin,TANG Haiping. Assessing ecological fragility with AHP and fuzzy integrated evaluation in autonomous prefectures of northern Xinjiang[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Sciences),2010,46(2):197-201.(in Chinese))
[24]赵跃龙,张玲娟.脆弱生态环境定量评价方法的研究[J].地理科学,1998,18(1):78-84.(ZHAO Yuelong,ZHANG Lingjuan. A study on index and method of quantitative assessment of fragile environment[J]. Progress in Geography,1998,18(1):78-84.(in Chinese))
[25]LIU Di,CAO Chunxiang,DUBOVYK O,et al. Using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process for spatio-temporal analysis of ecoenvironmental vulnerability change during 1990-2010 in Sanjiangyuan region,China[J]. Ecological Indicators,2017,73:612-625.
[26]薛英,王让会,张慧芝,等.塔里木河干流生态风险评价[J].干旱区研究,2008,25(4):562-567.(XUE Ying,WANG Ranghui,ZHANG Huizhi,et al. Ecological risk assessment of ecosystems in the mainstream area of the Tarim River[J]. Arid Zone Research,2008,25(4):562-567.(in Chinese))
[27]FENG Qi,LIU Wei,SI Jianhua,et al. Environmental effects of water resource development and use in the Tarim River Basin of Northwestern China[J]. Environmental Geology,2005,48(2):202-210.
[28]杨帆,薛联青,张洛晨,等.塔里木河生态水流情势分析及其适应性利用[J].水资源保护,2018,34(5):41-49.(YANG Fan,XUE Lianqing,ZHANG Luochen,et al. Analysis of ecological water regime in Tarim River and its adaptive utilization[J]. Water Resources Protection,2018,34(5):41-49.(in Chinese))
[29]薛联青,张卉,张洛晨,等.塔里木灌区引水前后环境流特性变化[J].水资源保护,2017,33(3):31-37.(XUE Lianqing,ZHANG Hui,ZHANG Luochen,et al.Changes in characteristics of environmental flow in Tarim irrigation area before and after water diversion[J]. Water Resources Protection,2017,33(3):31-37.(in Chinese))
[30]宋一凡,郭中小,卢亚静,等.一种基于SWAT模型的干旱牧区生态脆弱性评价方法:以艾布盖河流域为例[J].生态学报,2017,37(11):3805-3815.(SONG Yifan,GUO Zhongixao,LU Yajing,et al. An ecological vulnerability evaluation method for arid pasturing areas based on the SWAT model:a case study in the Aibugai Basin[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2017,37(11):3805-3815.(in Chinese))
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