基于PS-DR-DP理论模型的区域资源环境承载力综合评价
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摘要
资源环境承载力状态评价研究成果众多,研究视角多侧重于"压力—状态—响应"模型的传统途径。本文构建了区域资源环境承载力综合评价框架体系,通过建立"PS-DR-DP"正六边形相互作用力理论模型,将资源环境承载力分解为"压力—支撑力""破坏力—恢复力""退化力—提升力"三对相互作用力,分别对应资源支撑能力、环境容量和风险灾害抵御能力,根据不同作用力大小变化所引起的六边形的形状和面积的变化综合测度区域资源环境承载力状态的变化。基于上述理论模型,采用分类排列多边形图示法,研究了北京市2010-2015年资源环境承载力状态的变化。结果表明,2010-2015年北京市资源环境承载力趋于理想承载状态。2010年正向因子综合承载作用力与负向因子综合承载作用力的比值为1.0143,比值大于1,区域承载状态较好;而2015年该比值为1.1411。与2010年相比,2015年北京市资源环境承载状态相对更佳。2015年相比较于2010年,负向因子作用力均减弱,正向因子综合作用力增强。2015年人口规模为2171万,承载贡献均值为0.7025,进入最佳承载门槛,且仍具有进一步承载的空间。研究结论对北京市2020年人口规模控制在2300万以内提供了理论支撑。
There are many achievements on the state evaluation of resources and environmental carrying capacity. Most of the studies use the traditional analysis method together with the "Pressure-State-Response" model. This article first constructs a comprehensive evaluation framework system of regional resources and environmental carrying capacity. Then it builds the "PS-DS-DP" hexagon interactional theory model and divides the carrying capacity into three pairs of interaction forces, namely "Pressure-Support", "Destructiveness-Resilience" and "Degradation-Promotion", which correspond to resources supporting ability, environmental capacity and risk disaster resisting ability, respectively. The negative load of carrying capacity includes pressure, destructiveness and degradation, while support, resilience and promotion represent the positive ones. With the changes of the shape and area of the hexagon caused by the interaction forces, the state of regional resources environmental carrying capacity could be measured. This study figures out that the state value of carrying capacity is equal to the ratio of the positive contribution value to the negative contribution value. The regional load condition shows good if the ratio is over 1, and the bigger the better. Once the ratio is less than 1, it has to be warned. Regional carrying capacity rating standards in this paper are delimited by 4 levels:Ⅰ(≤0.30), Ⅱ(0.30-0.70), Ⅲ(0.70-0.85) and Ⅳ(≥0.85) corresponding to a lower level balance load for a region with an approximate stable state, an unstable state caused by the high speed increasing, an ideal carrying capacity of an approximate stable state, and a full load with the system collapse. A perfect state is not to reach the limit while remaining the system stable.Based on the above theoretical models and the earlier achievements, this research applies the classified-array polygon method to explore the state change of resources environmental carrying capacity of Beijing from 2010 to 2015. According to the general research hypothesis,the increasing population will add to the regional resources pressure. But Beijing's resource pressure has a slight decrease as the city's population grows, which differs from the conclusions that the city was overloaded. The result shows that Beijing is getting close to a perfect state.The state value of carrying capacity was 1.0143 in 2010 and increased to 1.1411 in 2015,suggesting that Beijing's carrying capacity turned better in 2010-2015. Compared to 2010, the negative factor forces became weakened and the positive ones continued to enhance in 2015.With the average rank value achieving 0.7025 in 2015, Beijing reached the optimal load threshold and still had space for further carrying. Finally, these results give a theoretical support for Beijing to control the population within 23 million by 2020.
There are many achievements on the state evaluation of resources and environmental carrying capacity. Most of the studies use the traditional analysis method together with the "Pressure-State-Response" model. This article first constructs a comprehensive evaluation framework system of regional resources and environmental carrying capacity. Then it builds the "PS-DS-DP" hexagon interactional theory model and divides the carrying capacity into three pairs of interaction forces, namely "Pressure-Support", "Destructiveness-Resilience" and "Degradation-Promotion", which correspond to resources supporting ability, environmental capacity and risk disaster resisting ability, respectively. The negative load of carrying capacity includes pressure, destructiveness and degradation, while support, resilience and promotion represent the positive ones. With the changes of the shape and area of the hexagon caused by the interaction forces, the state of regional resources environmental carrying capacity could be measured. This study figures out that the state value of carrying capacity is equal to the ratio of the positive contribution value to the negative contribution value. The regional load condition shows good if the ratio is over 1, and the bigger the better. Once the ratio is less than 1, it has to be warned. Regional carrying capacity rating standards in this paper are delimited by 4 levels:Ⅰ(≤0.30), Ⅱ(0.30-0.70), Ⅲ(0.70-0.85) and Ⅳ(≥0.85) corresponding to a lower level balance load for a region with an approximate stable state, an unstable state caused by the high speed increasing, an ideal carrying capacity of an approximate stable state, and a full load with the system collapse. A perfect state is not to reach the limit while remaining the system stable.Based on the above theoretical models and the earlier achievements, this research applies the classified-array polygon method to explore the state change of resources environmental carrying capacity of Beijing from 2010 to 2015. According to the general research hypothesis,the increasing population will add to the regional resources pressure. But Beijing's resource pressure has a slight decrease as the city's population grows, which differs from the conclusions that the city was overloaded. The result shows that Beijing is getting close to a perfect state.The state value of carrying capacity was 1.0143 in 2010 and increased to 1.1411 in 2015,suggesting that Beijing's carrying capacity turned better in 2010-2015. Compared to 2010, the negative factor forces became weakened and the positive ones continued to enhance in 2015.With the average rank value achieving 0.7025 in 2015, Beijing reached the optimal load threshold and still had space for further carrying. Finally, these results give a theoretical support for Beijing to control the population within 23 million by 2020.
引文
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[2] Meadows D H, Meadows D L, Randers J, et al. The limits to growth. A report for the Club of Rome's project on the predicament of mankind. Technological Forecasting&Social Change, 1972, 4(3):323-332.
[3] FAO. Agro-ecological Zoning:Guidelines. Fao Soil Bulletins, 1996.
[4] Karnopp D, Rosenberg R, Perelson A S. System Dynamics:A Unified Approach. New York:John Wiley&Sons, Inc.,1990.
[5] Rees W E. Ecological footprints and appropriated carrying capacity:What urban economics leaves out. Focus, 1992, 6(2):121-130.
[6] Ress W E, Wackernagel M. Ecological footprints and appropriated carrying capacity:Measuring the natural capital requirements of the human economy. Focus, 1994, 6(2):121-130.
[7] Odum H T. Environmental accounting:Emergy and environmental decision making. Child Development, 1996, 42(4):1187-1201.
[8] Feng Zhiming, Yang Yanzhao, Yan Huimin, et al. A review of resources and environment carrying capacity research since the 20th Century:From theory to practice. Resources Science, 2017, 39(3):379-395.[封志明,杨艳昭,闫慧敏,等.百年来的资源环境承载力研究:从理论到实践.资源科学, 2017, 39(3):379-395.]
[9] Céline C, Agnès P, Patrick P Assessing carrying capacities of coastal areas in France. Journal of Coastal Conservation,2008, 12(1):27-34.
[10] Guyondet T, Comeau L A, Bacher C, et al. Climate change influences carrying capacity in a coastal embayment dedicated to shellfish aquaculture. Estuaries&Coasts, 2015, 38(5):1593-1618.
[11] Reghunathan V M, Joseph S, Warrier C U, et al. Factors affecting the environmental carrying capacity of a freshwater tropical lake system. Environmental Monitoring&Assessment, 2016, 188(11):615.
[12] Brown K, Turner R K, Hameed H, et al. Environmental carrying capacity and tourism development in the Maldives and Nepal. Environmental Conservation, 1997, 24(4):316-325.
[13] Sarma A K, Sarma B, Das S. Estimating Sustainable Carrying Capacity of Flood Prone Hilly Urban Areas. Urban Hydrology, Watershed Management and Socio-Economic Aspects. Switzerland:Springer International Publishing, 2016.
[14] Irankhahi M, Jozi S A, Farshchi P, et al. Combination of GISFM and TOPSIS to evaluation of urban environment carrying capacity(Case study:Shemiran City, Iran). International Journal of Environmental Science&Technology,2017, 14(6):1-16.
[15] Mwalyosi R B B. Population growth, carrying capacity and sustainable development in south-west Masailand. Journal of Environmental Management, 1991, 33(2):175-187.
[16] Zhu Kezhen. Some characteristic features of Chinese climate and their effects on crop production. Acta Geographica Sinica, 1964, 30(1):1-13.[竺可桢.论我国气候的几个特点及其与粮食作物生产的关系.地理学报, 1964, 30(1):1-13.]
[17] Zeng Weihua, Wang Huadong, Xue Jiyu, et al. Environmental carrying capacity:A key to the coordination of the development of population, resources and environment. China Population, Resources and Environment, 1991, 1(2):33-37.[曾维华,王华东,薛纪渝,等.人口、资源与环境协调发展关键问题之一:环境承载力研究.中国人口·资源与环境, 1991, 1(2):33-37.]
[18] Shi Yafeng, Qu Yaoguang. The Carrying Capacity and Rational Utilization of Water Resources in Urumqi River Basin.Beijing:Science Press, 1992:94-112.[施雅风,曲耀光.乌鲁木齐河流域水资源环境承载力及其合理利用.北京:科学出版社, 1992:94-112.]
[19] Wang Zhonggen, Xia Jun. Quantitative analysis on bearing capacity of ecological environment. Journal of Changjiang Vocational University, 1999,16(4):9-12.[王中根,夏军.区域生态环境承载力的量化方法研究.长江工程职业技术学院学报, 1999,16(4):9-12.]
[20] Gao Jixi. A Study on the Ecological Bearing Capacity of Regional Sustainable Development[D]. Beijing:Institute of Geography, CAS, 1999.[高吉喜.区域可持续发展的生态承载力研究[D].北京:中国科学院地理研究所, 1999.]
[21] Mao Hanying, Yu Danlin. A study on the quantitative research of regional carrying capactity. Advance in Earth Sciences, 2001, 16(4):549-555.[毛汉英,余丹林.区域承载力定量研究方法探讨.地球科学进展, 2001, 16(4):549-555.]
[22] Shi Yulin. Research of Population Carrying Capacity of Chinese Land Resource. Beijing:Science and Technology of China Press, 1992.[石玉林.中国土地资源的人口承载能力研究.北京:中国科学技术出版社, 1992.]
[23] Liao Jinfeng. The land carrying capacity of the population in Guangdong Province. Economic Geography, 1998, 18(1):75-79.[廖金风.广东省土地人口承载能力.经济地理, 1998, 18(1):75-79.]
[24] Chen Xingpeng, Dai Qin. A study on water-soil capacity in Northwest arid area with systemic dynamics:A case of Hexi Corridor, Gansu Province. Arid Land Geography, 2002, 25(4):377-382.[陈兴鹏,戴芹.系统动力学在甘肃省河西地区水土资源承载力中的应用.干旱区地理, 2002, 25(4):377-382.]
[25] Yu Guanghua, Sun Caizhi. Land carrying capacity spatiotemporal differentiation in the Bohai Sea coastal areas. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2015, 35(14):4860-4870.[于广华,孙才志.环渤海沿海地区土地承载力时空分异特征.生态学报,2015, 35(14):4860-4870.]
[26] Feng Zhiming. Research history, presentsituation and future prospects of land carrying capacity. China Land Science,1994, 8(3):1-9.[封志明.土地承载力研究的过去、现在与未来.中国土地科学, 1994, 8(3):1-9.]
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