新疆贝母潜在分布区域及生态适宜性预测
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摘要
基于新疆贝母的62个自然分布点和15个环境因子,利用Arc GIS软件和最大熵模型(MAXENT),预测、分析了该植物在基准气候1961—1990及2050 (2041—2060,基于RCP2.6和RCP6.0情景)条件下的潜在适生区、驱动因子及其生态位参数。结果表明:(1)基准气候下,新疆贝母的适生区主要集中在阿勒泰地区、准噶尔盆地西部、南部、阿拉山口西南部、伊犁河谷南部及吐鲁番盆地西部地区。其中,最适宜的分布主要集中在准噶尔盆地西南部、塔城地区和伊犁河谷中部和南部;(2)新疆贝母在2050时段气候情境下的潜在分布范围与基准气候相比,将分别增加0.94%和0.23%,新增的潜在生境主要分布在准噶尔盆地西部。但最适生的分布区将在伊犁河谷中部、南部及塔城地区略有减少(0.42%和0.39%);(3)年平均降水量、最干月降水量、最干季平均气温和海拔主要限制了新疆贝母的潜在分布,累积贡献率之和达88.58%;基准气候下该植物最适宜分布区的生态位参数为:年平均降水量248—469 mm,最干月降水量3—19 mm,最干季平均气温-22.7—-2.0℃,海拔1350—2100 m。
Based on 62 natural distribution points and 15 environmental factors,we analyzed and predicted the potentially suitable areas,driving factors,and ecological niche parameters determining the distribution of Fritillaria walujewii under the reference climate of 1961—1990 and under the predicted climate of 2050( 2041—2060). We based our predictions on RCP2.6 and RCP6. 0 scenarios using Arc GIS and the maximum entropy( MAXENT) model. The major results were as follows:( 1) under the reference climate,the potentially suitable areas for F. walujewii were mainly restricted to the Altai region,western and southern Junggar Basin,southwestern Alashankou,southern Ili River Valley,and western Turpan Basin. Specifically,the most suitable areas were concentrated in southwestern Junggar Basin,Tacheng,and the middle and southern Ili River Valley;( 2) the potential distribution of F. walujewii in 2050,based on two climate scenarios and compared with the reference climate,will possibly decrease by about 0.94% and 0.23%. The new potential habitats would mainly distributed in the western Junggar Basin. However,the most suitable distributions for F. walujewii are predicted to become slightly smaller( by about 0. 42% and 0. 39%) in the middle and southern Ili River Valley and Tacheng;( 3)annual precipitation,precipitation in the driest month,mean temperature in the driest quarter,and altitude were the mainlimiting factors affecting distribution of F. walujewii; the total cumulative contribution of these factors was 88. 58%.Ecological niche parameters that determine the most suitable areas under the reference climate were: an annual precipitation of 248—469 mm,precipitation in the driest month of 3—19 mm,mean temperature in the driest quarter of-22. 7 to-2.0℃,and altitude of 1350—2100 m.
Based on 62 natural distribution points and 15 environmental factors,we analyzed and predicted the potentially suitable areas,driving factors,and ecological niche parameters determining the distribution of Fritillaria walujewii under the reference climate of 1961—1990 and under the predicted climate of 2050( 2041—2060). We based our predictions on RCP2.6 and RCP6. 0 scenarios using Arc GIS and the maximum entropy( MAXENT) model. The major results were as follows:( 1) under the reference climate,the potentially suitable areas for F. walujewii were mainly restricted to the Altai region,western and southern Junggar Basin,southwestern Alashankou,southern Ili River Valley,and western Turpan Basin. Specifically,the most suitable areas were concentrated in southwestern Junggar Basin,Tacheng,and the middle and southern Ili River Valley;( 2) the potential distribution of F. walujewii in 2050,based on two climate scenarios and compared with the reference climate,will possibly decrease by about 0.94% and 0.23%. The new potential habitats would mainly distributed in the western Junggar Basin. However,the most suitable distributions for F. walujewii are predicted to become slightly smaller( by about 0. 42% and 0. 39%) in the middle and southern Ili River Valley and Tacheng;( 3)annual precipitation,precipitation in the driest month,mean temperature in the driest quarter,and altitude were the mainlimiting factors affecting distribution of F. walujewii; the total cumulative contribution of these factors was 88. 58%.Ecological niche parameters that determine the most suitable areas under the reference climate were: an annual precipitation of 248—469 mm,precipitation in the driest month of 3—19 mm,mean temperature in the driest quarter of-22. 7 to-2.0℃,and altitude of 1350—2100 m.
引文
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[2] Araújo M B,Alagador D,Cabeza M,Nogués-bravo D,Thuiller W. Climate change threatens European conservation areas. Ecology Letters,2011,14(5):484-492.
[3]崔晋亮.气候变化对三种常用药用植物分布的潜在影响.西安:陕西师范大学,2015.
[4]段咸珍,郑秀菊.新疆贝母属植物研究五报——野生贝母资源及其开发利用.中国野生植物,1990,(1):2-5.
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[6]苏志豪,潘伯荣,卓立,周晓兵,刘会良,康晓珊.中国天山山区新疆贝母居群遗传多样性及其环境适应性.干旱区研究,2017,34(1):119-125.
[7]黄璐琦,肖培根,王永炎.中国珍稀濒危药用植物资源调查.上海:上海科学技术出版社,2012.
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[12]张熙骜,隋晓云,吕植,陈毅峰.基于Maxent的两种入侵性鱼类(麦穗鱼和鲫)的全球适生区预测.生物多样性,2014,22(2):182-188.
[13]马松梅,聂迎彬,耿庆龙,王荣学.气候变化对蒙古扁桃适宜分布范围和空间格局的影响.植物生态学报,2014,38(3):262-269.
[14]马松梅,聂迎彬,段霞,余存生,王荣学.蒙古扁桃植物的潜在地理分布及居群保护优先性.生态学报,2015,35(9):2960-2966.
[15]常志隆,周益林,赵遵田,段霞瑜.基于Max Ent模型的小麦印度腥黑穗病在中国的适生性分析.植物保护,2010,36(3):110-112,129-129.
[16]张微,姜哲,巩虎忠,栾晓峰.气候变化对东北濒危动物驼鹿潜在生境的影响.生态学报,2016,36(7):1815-1823.
[17] Bosso L,Luchi N,Maresi G,Cristinzio G,Smeraldo S,Russo D. Predicting current and future disease outbreaks of Diplodia sapinea shoot blight in Italy:species distribution models as a tool for forest management planning. Forest Ecology and Management,2017,400:655-664.
[18]王娟娟,曹博,白成科,张琳琳,车乐.基于Maxent和Arc GIS预测川贝母潜在分布及适宜性评价.植物研究,2014,34(5):642-649.
[19]张东方,张琴,郭杰,孙成忠,吴杰,聂祥,谢彩香.基于Max Ent模型的当归全球生态适宜区和生态特征研究.生态学报,2017,37(15):5111-5120.
[20] Fielding A H,Bell J F. A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environmental Conservation,1997,24(1):38-49.
[21] Cohen J. A coefficient of agreement for nominal scales. Educational and Psychological Measurement,1960,20(1):37-46.
[22]柳鑫,杨艳芳,宋红萍,张小波,黄璐琦,吴和珍.基于Max Ent和Arc GIS的黄连生长适宜性区划研究.中国中药杂志,2016,41(17):3186-3193.
[23] Elith J,Leathwick J R. Species distribution models:ecological explanation and prediction across space and time. Annual Review of Ecology,Evolution,and Systematics,2009,40:677-697.
[24]新疆兴农网.新疆贝母.(2016-06-03)[2017-12-08]. http://www.xjxnw.gov.cn/c/2016-06-03/501257.shtml#.
[25] Bertrand R,Lenoir J,Piedallu C,Riofrío-Dillon G,de Ruffray P,Vidal C,Pierrat J C,Gégout J C. Changes in plant community composition lag behind limate warming in lowland forests. Nature,2011,479(7374):517-520.
[26]李兰海,白磊,姚亚楠,杨青.基于IPCC情景下新疆地区未来气候变化的预估.资源科学,2012,34(4):602-612.
[2] Araújo M B,Alagador D,Cabeza M,Nogués-bravo D,Thuiller W. Climate change threatens European conservation areas. Ecology Letters,2011,14(5):484-492.
[3]崔晋亮.气候变化对三种常用药用植物分布的潜在影响.西安:陕西师范大学,2015.
[4]段咸珍,郑秀菊.新疆贝母属植物研究五报——野生贝母资源及其开发利用.中国野生植物,1990,(1):2-5.
[5]王果平,李晓瑾,贾新岳.北疆部分地区新疆贝母Fritillaria walujewii资源调查//全国第9届天然药物资源学术研讨会论文集.广州:中国自然资源学会,2010.
[6]苏志豪,潘伯荣,卓立,周晓兵,刘会良,康晓珊.中国天山山区新疆贝母居群遗传多样性及其环境适应性.干旱区研究,2017,34(1):119-125.
[7]黄璐琦,肖培根,王永炎.中国珍稀濒危药用植物资源调查.上海:上海科学技术出版社,2012.
[8] Staton H,Ashley Sr J,Ashley Jr J,Mooney P. Method and system to monitor and control devices utilizing wireless media:US,US8290515. 2012-10-16.
[9] Hernandez P A,Franke I,Herzog S K,Pacheco V,Paniagua L,Quintana H L,Soto A,Swenson J J,Tovar C,Valqui T H,Vargas J,Young B E. Predicting species distributions in poorly-studied landscapes. Biodiversity and Conservation,2008,17(6):1353-1366.
[10]马松梅,魏博,李晓辰,罗冲,孙芳芳.气候变化对梭梭植物适宜分布的影响.生态学杂志,2017,36(5):1243-1250.
[11] Phillips S J,Anderson R P,Schapire R E. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling,2006,190(3/4):231-259.
[12]张熙骜,隋晓云,吕植,陈毅峰.基于Maxent的两种入侵性鱼类(麦穗鱼和鲫)的全球适生区预测.生物多样性,2014,22(2):182-188.
[13]马松梅,聂迎彬,耿庆龙,王荣学.气候变化对蒙古扁桃适宜分布范围和空间格局的影响.植物生态学报,2014,38(3):262-269.
[14]马松梅,聂迎彬,段霞,余存生,王荣学.蒙古扁桃植物的潜在地理分布及居群保护优先性.生态学报,2015,35(9):2960-2966.
[15]常志隆,周益林,赵遵田,段霞瑜.基于Max Ent模型的小麦印度腥黑穗病在中国的适生性分析.植物保护,2010,36(3):110-112,129-129.
[16]张微,姜哲,巩虎忠,栾晓峰.气候变化对东北濒危动物驼鹿潜在生境的影响.生态学报,2016,36(7):1815-1823.
[17] Bosso L,Luchi N,Maresi G,Cristinzio G,Smeraldo S,Russo D. Predicting current and future disease outbreaks of Diplodia sapinea shoot blight in Italy:species distribution models as a tool for forest management planning. Forest Ecology and Management,2017,400:655-664.
[18]王娟娟,曹博,白成科,张琳琳,车乐.基于Maxent和Arc GIS预测川贝母潜在分布及适宜性评价.植物研究,2014,34(5):642-649.
[19]张东方,张琴,郭杰,孙成忠,吴杰,聂祥,谢彩香.基于Max Ent模型的当归全球生态适宜区和生态特征研究.生态学报,2017,37(15):5111-5120.
[20] Fielding A H,Bell J F. A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environmental Conservation,1997,24(1):38-49.
[21] Cohen J. A coefficient of agreement for nominal scales. Educational and Psychological Measurement,1960,20(1):37-46.
[22]柳鑫,杨艳芳,宋红萍,张小波,黄璐琦,吴和珍.基于Max Ent和Arc GIS的黄连生长适宜性区划研究.中国中药杂志,2016,41(17):3186-3193.
[23] Elith J,Leathwick J R. Species distribution models:ecological explanation and prediction across space and time. Annual Review of Ecology,Evolution,and Systematics,2009,40:677-697.
[24]新疆兴农网.新疆贝母.(2016-06-03)[2017-12-08]. http://www.xjxnw.gov.cn/c/2016-06-03/501257.shtml#.
[25] Bertrand R,Lenoir J,Piedallu C,Riofrío-Dillon G,de Ruffray P,Vidal C,Pierrat J C,Gégout J C. Changes in plant community composition lag behind limate warming in lowland forests. Nature,2011,479(7374):517-520.
[26]李兰海,白磊,姚亚楠,杨青.基于IPCC情景下新疆地区未来气候变化的预估.资源科学,2012,34(4):602-612.
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