基于综合权重灰色关联分析法的千鹤湖生态安全评价
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摘要
【目的】评价千鹤湖生态安全状况,有针对性地提出应对措施。【方法】基于"驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应"(DPSIR)模型构建评价指标体系,采用专家打分法和熵值法相结合计算综合权重,利用灰色关联分析方法计算千鹤湖生态安全的关联度,以此对千鹤湖生态安全状况进行评估。【结果】社会经济影响层处于Ⅰ级,水生态健康层处于Ⅳ级,服务功能层和管理调控层均处于Ⅲ级,综合判断千鹤湖库区的安全生态状况所属的安全级别为Ⅲ级;针对45项评价指标,计算Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ、Ⅴ级对方案层的贡献率,分别为2.05%、38.66%、34.19%、2.88%和22.22%;千鹤湖总体生态安全状况最重要的影响因素是长效管理机制构建,制约4个准则层生态安全的关键因素分别是单位面积点源COD负荷、综合营养指数、集中饮用水水质达标率和长效管理机制构建。【结论】千鹤湖生态安全处于一般级别,应加强对千鹤湖水生态健康层的保护,建立千鹤湖生态安全长效管理机制。
【Objective】Keeping catchment ecology healthy is a critical criterion in developing sustainable ecosystems, and this paper presents an grey correlation method to analyze the ecological health of Qianhe Lake.【Method】The research was based on baseline-survey of water ecology, water environment and social economy in the basin, and the ecological security of the lake was evaluated using the comprehensively-weighed grey correlation analysis model.【Result】Social and economic impact layer was at level Ⅰ, water ecological health layer was at level Ⅳ, and service function layer and the management control layer were at level Ⅲ. The overall ecological health of the lake was at level Ⅲ. For all 45 factors we analyzed, those at levelⅠ, Ⅱ, Ⅲ, Ⅳ and Ⅴ contributed to the overall ecological health by 2.05%, 38.66%, 34.19%, 2.88% and 22.22%, respectively. The main factors affecting the ecological security was social economic layer, while the water ecological health layer, service functions layer and management control layer were affected by point-source COD load per unit area, comprehensive nutrition index, the rate of compliance to centralized drinking water quality, and construction of long-acting management mechanism, respectively.【Conclusion】The ecological health of the Qianhe lake is at general-security level, and its future improvement should focus on protecting the ecological health layer and establishing a longterm management system.
【Objective】Keeping catchment ecology healthy is a critical criterion in developing sustainable ecosystems, and this paper presents an grey correlation method to analyze the ecological health of Qianhe Lake.【Method】The research was based on baseline-survey of water ecology, water environment and social economy in the basin, and the ecological security of the lake was evaluated using the comprehensively-weighed grey correlation analysis model.【Result】Social and economic impact layer was at level Ⅰ, water ecological health layer was at level Ⅳ, and service function layer and the management control layer were at level Ⅲ. The overall ecological health of the lake was at level Ⅲ. For all 45 factors we analyzed, those at levelⅠ, Ⅱ, Ⅲ, Ⅳ and Ⅴ contributed to the overall ecological health by 2.05%, 38.66%, 34.19%, 2.88% and 22.22%, respectively. The main factors affecting the ecological security was social economic layer, while the water ecological health layer, service functions layer and management control layer were affected by point-source COD load per unit area, comprehensive nutrition index, the rate of compliance to centralized drinking water quality, and construction of long-acting management mechanism, respectively.【Conclusion】The ecological health of the Qianhe lake is at general-security level, and its future improvement should focus on protecting the ecological health layer and establishing a longterm management system.
引文
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[13]张凤太,苏维词.基于均方差-TOPSIS模型的贵州水生态安全评价研究[J].灌溉排水学报, 2016, 35(9):88-92,103.
[14] WANG H, LONG H L, LI X B, et al. Evaluation of changes in ecological security in China’s Qinghai Lake Basin from 2000 to 2013 and the relationship to land use and climate change[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences, 2014, 72(2):341-354.
[15] SHI Y H, LI J Q, XIE M Q. Evaluation of the ecological sensitivity and security of tidal flats in Shanghai[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2018, 85:729-741.
[16]赵静静,柴立和,杜慧滨.基于MIEP模型的城市生态安全评价—以宁波市为例[J].环境科学学报, 2015, 35(9):2 989-2 995.
[17]代稳,张美竹,秦趣,等.基于生态足迹模型的水资源生态安全评价研究[J].环境科学与技术, 2013, 36(12):228-233.
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[19]邬平,马继涛,李鑫,等.一种基于专家打分权重的迭代算法构建与应用[J].昆明理工大学学报, 2013, 38(2):108-116.
[20]陈丽君,张兆同.我国有效灌溉面积影响因素的灰色关联分析[J].灌溉排水学报, 2015, 34(8):92-95.
[21]刘思峰,蔡华,杨英杰,等.灰色关联分析模型研究进展[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2013, 33(8):2 041-2 046.
[22]杨咪,屈文岗,钱会.基于熵权的贝叶斯模型及其在水质评价中的应用[J].灌溉排水学报, 2018, 37(1):85-90.
[23]李祚泳,彭荔红.基于韦伯-费希纳拓广定律的环境空气质量标准[J].中国环境监测, 2003,19(4):17-19.
[24]王大洋,莫崇勋,钟欢欢,等.基于综合权重可变模糊集的最严格水资源管理评价[J].人民珠江, 2016, 37(5):10-14.
[25]齐奇.基于PSR模型和层次分析—熵权法的水生态安全评价研究[J].水利发展研究, 2017, 17(10):57-61.
[26]侯保灯.基于灰色关联分析法的溃坝生命损失综合评价模型[J].水力发电, 2012, 38(10):76-80.
[27]侯保灯,李佳蕾,潘妮,等.基于改进熵权的灰色关联模型在湿地水质综合评价中的应用[J].安全与环境学报, 2008, 8(6):80-83.
[2]吕少宁,文军,康悦.黄河源区玛曲草原草场退化原因调查分析[J].生态经济, 2011(2):166-170.
[3]胡彬,刘俊国,赵丹丹,等.基于水足迹理念的水资源短缺评价:以2022年冬奥会雪上项目举办地为例[J].灌溉排水学报, 2017, 36(7):108-116.
[4]申剑,史淑娟,周扬,等.基于改进灰色关联分析法的丹江口流域地表水环境质量评价[J].中国环境监测, 2014, 30(5):41-46.
[5]张松,郭怀成,盛虎,等.河流流域生态安全综合评估方法[J].环境科学研究, 2012, 25(7):826-832.
[6]蒙晓,任志远,戴睿.基于压力-状态-响应模型的宝鸡市生态安全动态评价及预测[J].水土保持通报, 2012, 32(3):231-235.
[7]吴晓,吴宜进.基于灰色关联模型的山地城市生态安全动态评价:以重庆市巫山县为例[J].长江流域资源与环境, 2014, 23(3):385-391.
[8] JIANG X. Urban Ecological Security Evaluation and Analysis Based on Fuzzy Mathematics[J]. Procedia Engineering, 2011, 15:4 451-4 455.
[9]钟振宇,柴立元,刘益贵,等.基于层次分析法的洞庭湖生态安全评估[J].中国环境科学, 2010, 30(S1):41-45.
[10]刘艳艳,吴大放,王朝晖.湿地生态安全评价研究进展[J].地理与地理信息科学, 2011, 27(1):69-75.
[11]魏彬,杨校生,吴明,等.生态安全评价方法研究进展[J].湖南农业大学学报(自然科学版), 2009, 35(5):572-579.
[12]李佩武,李贵才,张金花,等.深圳城市生态安全评价与预测[J].地理科学进展, 2009, 28(2):245-252.
[13]张凤太,苏维词.基于均方差-TOPSIS模型的贵州水生态安全评价研究[J].灌溉排水学报, 2016, 35(9):88-92,103.
[14] WANG H, LONG H L, LI X B, et al. Evaluation of changes in ecological security in China’s Qinghai Lake Basin from 2000 to 2013 and the relationship to land use and climate change[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences, 2014, 72(2):341-354.
[15] SHI Y H, LI J Q, XIE M Q. Evaluation of the ecological sensitivity and security of tidal flats in Shanghai[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2018, 85:729-741.
[16]赵静静,柴立和,杜慧滨.基于MIEP模型的城市生态安全评价—以宁波市为例[J].环境科学学报, 2015, 35(9):2 989-2 995.
[17]代稳,张美竹,秦趣,等.基于生态足迹模型的水资源生态安全评价研究[J].环境科学与技术, 2013, 36(12):228-233.
[18]李玉照,刘永,颜小品.基于DPSIR模型的流域生态安全评价指标体系研究[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版), 2012, 48(6):971-981.
[19]邬平,马继涛,李鑫,等.一种基于专家打分权重的迭代算法构建与应用[J].昆明理工大学学报, 2013, 38(2):108-116.
[20]陈丽君,张兆同.我国有效灌溉面积影响因素的灰色关联分析[J].灌溉排水学报, 2015, 34(8):92-95.
[21]刘思峰,蔡华,杨英杰,等.灰色关联分析模型研究进展[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2013, 33(8):2 041-2 046.
[22]杨咪,屈文岗,钱会.基于熵权的贝叶斯模型及其在水质评价中的应用[J].灌溉排水学报, 2018, 37(1):85-90.
[23]李祚泳,彭荔红.基于韦伯-费希纳拓广定律的环境空气质量标准[J].中国环境监测, 2003,19(4):17-19.
[24]王大洋,莫崇勋,钟欢欢,等.基于综合权重可变模糊集的最严格水资源管理评价[J].人民珠江, 2016, 37(5):10-14.
[25]齐奇.基于PSR模型和层次分析—熵权法的水生态安全评价研究[J].水利发展研究, 2017, 17(10):57-61.
[26]侯保灯.基于灰色关联分析法的溃坝生命损失综合评价模型[J].水力发电, 2012, 38(10):76-80.
[27]侯保灯,李佳蕾,潘妮,等.基于改进熵权的灰色关联模型在湿地水质综合评价中的应用[J].安全与环境学报, 2008, 8(6):80-83.
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