基于MRIO模型的中国对外贸易隐含大气污染转移研究
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摘要
采用全球多区域投入产出(MRIO)模型耦合二氧化硫(SO_2)、氮氧化物(NO_x)、可吸入颗粒物(PM_(10))、非甲烷挥发性颗粒物(NMVOC)排放清单,定量分析了2012年中国与其他国家贸易过程中隐含的大气污染排放转移.结果显示,中国是隐含SO_2、NO_x、PM_(10)排放的输出地和隐含NMVOC排放的输入地.欧盟、东亚和美国购买我国商品(如电力燃气和水供应业、重工业和矿采选业)导致的出口隐含大气污染排放量占比约为70%.中国在消耗撒哈拉以南非洲地区、中东&北非、东亚、东南亚和欧盟进口商品过程中,导致上述地区排放NMVOC为3.1×10~6t,约占我国进口隐含NMVOC排放的69.2%.为了减轻我国对外贸易中承担的环境负担,本文从加强重污染产业管控、发展绿色经济、推进全球绿色供给链等方面提出相关政策建议.
Multi-region input-output(MRIO) model with air pollutant inventories including sulfur dioxide(SO_2), nitrogen oxides(NO_x), inhalable particulate matter(PM_(10)) and non-methane volatile organic compounds(NMVOC) was adopted with thequantitative analysis on transfer of atmospheric pollutant emission embodied in China's trades with other countries in 2012. Theresults showed that China was the exporter of embodied SO_2, NO_x, PM_(10) emissions and the importer of embodied NMVOCemissions. The embodied air pollutantemission caused by the purchase of Chinese goods(such as Electricity, Gas and Water, HeavyIndustry and Mining and Quarrying) by the EU, East Asia and the USA, contributed to approximately 70% of China'sexport-embodied atmospheric pollution emissions. The imported merchandises from Sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East & NorthAfrica, East Asia, Southeast Asia and the EU that embodied 3.1×10~6 t NMVOC emissions consumed by China accounted for 69.2%of China's imports-embodied NMVOC. In order to alleviate the environmental burden brought by cross-border trade, this paper putforward relevant policy recommendations,such as strengthening pollution emissions control of heavy pollution industries, developinggreen economy and pushing forward global green supply chains, etc.
Multi-region input-output(MRIO) model with air pollutant inventories including sulfur dioxide(SO_2), nitrogen oxides(NO_x), inhalable particulate matter(PM_(10)) and non-methane volatile organic compounds(NMVOC) was adopted with thequantitative analysis on transfer of atmospheric pollutant emission embodied in China's trades with other countries in 2012. Theresults showed that China was the exporter of embodied SO_2, NO_x, PM_(10) emissions and the importer of embodied NMVOCemissions. The embodied air pollutantemission caused by the purchase of Chinese goods(such as Electricity, Gas and Water, HeavyIndustry and Mining and Quarrying) by the EU, East Asia and the USA, contributed to approximately 70% of China'sexport-embodied atmospheric pollution emissions. The imported merchandises from Sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East & NorthAfrica, East Asia, Southeast Asia and the EU that embodied 3.1×10~6 t NMVOC emissions consumed by China accounted for 69.2%of China's imports-embodied NMVOC. In order to alleviate the environmental burden brought by cross-border trade, this paper putforward relevant policy recommendations,such as strengthening pollution emissions control of heavy pollution industries, developinggreen economy and pushing forward global green supply chains, etc.
引文
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1http://www.worldmrio.com/.
[2]Kan H D,Chen R J,Tong S L.Ambient air pollution,climate change,and population health in China[J].Environment International,2012,42:10-19.
[3]Lin J,Pan D,Davis S J,et al.China’s international trade and air pollution in the United States[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2014,111(5):1736-1741.
[4]Thurston G D,Burnett R T,Turner M C,et al.Ischemic heart disease mortality and long-term exposure to source-related components of U.S.fine particle air pollution[J].Environmental Health Perspectives,2016,124(6):785-794.
[5]Yang G,Wang Y,Zeng Y,et al.Rapid health transition in China,1990~2010:findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010[J].The Lancet,2013,381:134-162.
[6]Peters G P,Minx J C,Weber C L,et al.Growth in emission transfers via international trade from 1990 to 2008[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2011,108(21):8903-8908.
[7]Prell C,Feng K.Unequal carbon exchanges:the environmental and economic impacts of iconic U.S.consumption items[J].Journal of Industrial Ecology,2015,20(1):55-62.
[8]Su B,Ang B W.Input-output analysis of CO2 emissions embodied in trade:a multi-region model for China[J].Applied Energy,2014,114:377-384.
[9]Davis S J,Caldeira K.Consumption-based accounting of CO2emissions[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2010,107(12):5687-5692.
[10]Weber C L,Peters G P,Guan D,et al.The contribution of Chinese exports to climate change[J].Energy Policy,2008,36(9):3572-3577.
[11]张晓平.中国对外贸易产生的CO2排放区位转移分析[J].地理学报,2009,64(2):234-242.Zhang X.Carbon Dioxide Emissions Embodied in China's Foreign Trade[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2009,64(2):234-242.
[12]马晶梅.基于MRIO模型的中美贸易内涵碳转移研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2015,30(9):40-47.Ma J.Transfer of carbon emissions embodied in Sino-US trade based on MRIO model[J].Statistics&Information Forum,2015,30(9):40-47.
[13]庞军,石媛昌,李梓瑄,等.基于MRIO模型的京津冀地区贸易隐含污染转移[J].中国环境科学,2017,37(8):3190-3200.Pan J,Shi Y,Li X,et al.Inter-provincial transfer of embodied pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on the MRIO model[J].China Environmental Science,2017,37(8):3190-3200.
[14]Jiang X,Zhang Q,Zhao H,et al.Revealing the hidden health costs embodied in Chinese exports[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2015,49(7):4381-4388.
[15]Muradian R,O'Connor,M,Martinez-Alier J.Embodied pollution in trade:estimating the'environmental load displacement'of industrialised countries[J].Ecological Economics,2002,41(1):51-67.
[16]Xu M,Allenby B,Chen W.Energy and air emissions embodied in China-U.S.trade:eastbound assessment using adjusted bilateral trade data[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2009,43(9):3378-3384.
[17]Ju Y.Tracking the PM2.5 inventories embodied in the trade among China,Japan and Korea[J].Journal of Economic Structures,2017,6(1):27.
[18]Wang H,Zhang Y,Zhao H,et al.Trade-driven relocation of air pollution and health impacts in China[J].Nat Commun,2017,8(1):738.
[19]Zhang Q,Jiang X,Tong D,et al.Transboundary health impacts of transported global air pollution and international trade[J].Nature,2017,543(7647):705-709.
[20]Miller R E,Blair P D.Input-output analysis:foundations and extensions[J].Cambridge University Press,2009.
[21]彭水军,张文城,卫瑞.碳排放的国家责任核算方案[J].经济研究,2016,51(03):137-150.Pen S,Zhang W,Wei R.National Carbon Emission Responsibility[J].Economic Research Journal,2016,51(3):137-150.
[22]Hubacek K,Baiocchi G,Feng K,et al.Global carbon inequality[J].Energy,Ecology and Environment,2017,2(6):361-369.
[23]Lenzen M,Kanemoto K,Moran D,et al.Mapping the structure of the world economy[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2012,46(15):8374-8381.
[24]Lenzen M,Moran D,Kanemoto K,et al.Building Eora:a global multi-region input-output database at high country and sector resolution[J].Economic Systems Research,2013,25(1):20-49.
[25]Kanemoto K,Moran D,Lenzen M,et al.International trade undermines national emission reduction targets:new evidence from air pollution[J].Global Environmental Change,2014,24:52-59.
[26]European Commission.Identification and mitigation of the negative impacts of EU demand for certain commodities on biodiversity in third countries[R].European Commission,2012.
[27]Yu Y,Feng K,Hubacek K.China's unequal ecological exchange[J].Ecological Indicators,2014,47:156-163.
1http://www.worldmrio.com/.
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