我国PM_(2.5)浓度分阶段改善目标情景分析
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摘要
分析了部分发达国家、地区PM_(2. 5)改善经验和我国74个重点城市2013～2016年PM_(2. 5)年均浓度的改善情况,得出不同浓度区间城市所能达到的PM_(2. 5)年均浓度降幅,并据此设计了我国城市PM_(2. 5)浓度改善情景,通过自下而上的计算方法,测算了全国城市、31个省(区、市)及重点区域的PM_(2. 5)浓度分阶段改善目标.结果表明,在2种情景下我国PM_(2. 5)年均浓度均将在2025年前实现达标,在2030年下降到30μg·m~(-3)以下;京津冀及周边地区在2030年实现达标;长三角地区在2025年达标,2030年区域内城市实现全面达标.北京、天津、河北、河南等省(市)基准年PM_(2. 5)年均浓度高,在2030年实现达标的压力较大;在重点区域强化情景下,京津冀及周边地区2030年仍有接近40%的城市PM_(2. 5)浓度超标,应持续加大重污染地区PM_(2. 5)污染防治工作的力度,以推进PM_(2. 5)浓度目标的实现.
Reports of decreasing PM_(2. 5) concentrations in some developed countries and regions,as well as the trends of annual average concentrations of PM_(2. 5) in the 74 key cities of China from 2013 to 2016 were analyzed. The cities were categorized based on PM_(2. 5) concentration ranges and the regions where they are located. The average annual declining rates of PM_(2. 5) concentration were calculated for these categories. Based on previous PM_(2. 5) rates,we proposed different scenarios of decreasing PM_(2. 5) concentration in Chinese cities for the future decades. Future PM_(2. 5) concentration was calculated for each of the Chinese cities,and the milestones for 31 provinces and key areas were analyzed. The results showed that the annual average concentration of PM_(2. 5) in China could meet the national air quality standard by 2025 and drop below 30 μg·m~(-3) in 2030 under both scenarios. The PM_(2. 5) concentration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas could meet the standards in 2030,and the Yangtze River Delta area in 2025. It will be difficult for Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei,and Henan to meet the standard in 2030. Even in the scenario where measures were intensified in the key areas,the cities failed to meet the PM_(2. 5) concentration standards. In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas,the values were close to 40% of the target by 2030. To accelerate the reduction of PM_(2. 5) concentration,extreme efforts will be needed in the highly polluted areas.
Reports of decreasing PM_(2. 5) concentrations in some developed countries and regions,as well as the trends of annual average concentrations of PM_(2. 5) in the 74 key cities of China from 2013 to 2016 were analyzed. The cities were categorized based on PM_(2. 5) concentration ranges and the regions where they are located. The average annual declining rates of PM_(2. 5) concentration were calculated for these categories. Based on previous PM_(2. 5) rates,we proposed different scenarios of decreasing PM_(2. 5) concentration in Chinese cities for the future decades. Future PM_(2. 5) concentration was calculated for each of the Chinese cities,and the milestones for 31 provinces and key areas were analyzed. The results showed that the annual average concentration of PM_(2. 5) in China could meet the national air quality standard by 2025 and drop below 30 μg·m~(-3) in 2030 under both scenarios. The PM_(2. 5) concentration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas could meet the standards in 2030,and the Yangtze River Delta area in 2025. It will be difficult for Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei,and Henan to meet the standard in 2030. Even in the scenario where measures were intensified in the key areas,the cities failed to meet the PM_(2. 5) concentration standards. In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas,the values were close to 40% of the target by 2030. To accelerate the reduction of PM_(2. 5) concentration,extreme efforts will be needed in the highly polluted areas.
引文
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[15]吴文景,常兴,邢佳,等.京津冀地区主要排放源减排对PM2.5污染改善贡献评估[J].环境科学,2017,38(3):867-875.Wu W J,Chang X,Xing J,et al.Assessment of PM2.5pollution mitigation due to emission reduction from main emission sources in the Bejing-Tianjin-Hebei Region[J].Environmental Science,2017,38(3):867-875.
[16]王振波,梁龙武,林雄斌,等.京津冀城市群空气污染的模式总结与治理效果评估[J].环境科学,2017,38(10):4005-4014.Wang Z B,Liang L W,Lin X B,et al.Control models and effect evaluation of air pollution in Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration[J].Environmental Science,2017,38(10):4005-4014.
[17]中国清洁空气联盟.空气污染治理国际经验介绍之伦敦烟雾治理历程[R].北京:中国清洁空气联盟,2013.
[18]孟露露,单春艳,白志鹏,等.中国城市PM2.5空气质量改善分阶段目标研究[J].中国环境监测,2017,33(2):1-10.Meng L L,Shan C Y,Bai Z P,et al.Phased-in targets of PM2.5air quality improvement in Chinese cities[J].Environmental Monitoring of China,2017,33(2):1-10.
[19]王金南.控制PM2.5污染:中国路线图与政策机制[M].北京:科学出版社,2016.316.
[20]United States Environmental Protection Agency.Particulate matter(PM2.5)trends[EB/OL].https://www.epa.gov/airtrends/particulate-matter-pm25-trends,2018-04-10.
[21]孟露露,单春艳,李洋阳,等.美国PM2.5未达标区控制对策及对中国的启示[J].南开大学学报(自然科学版),2016,49(1):54-61.Meng L L,Shan C Y,Li Y Y,et al.Control strategy of PM2.5nonattainment area in the united states and its enlightenment to China[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Nankaiensis,2016,49(1):54-61.
[22]California Air Resources Board.Air quality and meteorological information system[EB/OL].https://www.arb.ca.gov/aqmis2/aqmis2.php,2018-04-10.
[23]European Environment Agency.Air quality in Europe-2014report[R].Denmark:European Environment Agency,2014.
[24]Ministry of the Environment Government of Japan.Annual report on environmental statistics 2017[EB/OL].http://www.env.go.jp/en/statistics/e2017.html,2018-04-10.
[25]中华人民共和国生态环境部.城市空气质量状况月报[EB/OL].http://www.mep.gov.cn/hjzl/dqhj/cskqzlzkyb/index_1.shtml,2018-04-10.
[26]中国清洁空气联盟.京津冀如何实现空气质量达标?-基于情景分析的京津冀地区PM2.5达标情景研究[R].北京:中国清洁空气联盟,2016.
[27]中国清洁空气联盟.长三角如何实现空气质量达标?上海、江苏、浙江的PM2.5达标情景分析[R].上海:中国清洁空气联盟,2016.
[28]姜磊,周海峰,赖志柱,等.中国城市PM2.5时空动态变化特征分析:2015-2017年[J].环境科学学报,2018,38(10):3816-3825.Jiang L,Zhou H F,Lai Z Z,et al.Analysis of spatio-temporal characteristic of PM2.5concentrations of Chinese cities:2015-2017[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2018,38(10):3816-3825.
[29]孙秀艳,刘毅,寇江泽,等.打赢蓝天保卫战三年行动启动(在习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想指引下---新时代新气象新作为)[N].人民日报,2018-02-04(01).
[2]中华人民共和国环境保护部.环境保护部发布2016年全国空气质量状况[EB/OL].http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2017-01/23/content_5162688.htm#1,2017-01-23/2018-03-29.
[3]燕丽,汪旭颖,贺晋瑜.城市PM2.5年均浓度达标策略研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(11):114-116.Yan L,Wang X Y,He J Y.Study in city PM2.5annual average concentration compliance strategy[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2014,24(11):114-116.
[4]中华人民共和国环境保护部.2016中国环境状况公报[EB/OL].http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2017-06/06/content_5200281.htm,2017-06-06/2018-03-29.
[5]张殷俊,陈曦,谢高地,等.中国细颗粒物(PM2.5)污染状况和空间分布[J].资源科学,2015,37(7):1339-1346.Zhang Y J,Chen X,Xie G D,et al.Pollution status and spatial distribution of PM2.5in China[J].Resources Science,2015,37(7):1339-1346.
[6]韩力慧,张鹏,张海亮,等.北京市大气细颗粒物污染与来源解析研究[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(11):3203-3210.Han L H,Zhang P,Zhang H L,et al.Pollution and source apportionment of atmospheric fine particles in Beijing[J].China Environmental Science,2016,36(11):3203-3210.
[7]Wang Z F,Li J,Wang Z,et al.Modeling study of regional severe hazes over mid-eastern China in January 2013 and its implications on pollution prevention and control[J].Science China Earth Sciences,2014,57(1):3-13.
[8]薛文博,付飞,王金南,等.基于全国城市PM2.5达标约束的大气环境容量模拟[J].中国环境科学,2014,34(10):2490-2496.Xue W B,Fu F,Wang J N,et al.Modeling study on atmospheric environmental capacity of major pollutants constrained by PM2.5compliance of Chinese cities[J].China Environmental Science,2014,34(10):2490-2496.
[9]吴兑,刘啟汉,梁延刚,等.粤港细粒子(PM2.5)污染导致能见度下降与灰霾天气形成的研究[J].环境科学学报,2012,32(11):2660-2669.Wu D,Lau A K H,Leung Y K,et al.Hazy weather formation and visibility deterioration resulted from fine particulate(PM2.5)pollutions in Guangdong and Hong Kong[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2012,32(11):2660-2669.
[10]宋宇,唐孝炎,方晨,等.北京市能见度下降与颗粒物污染的关系[J].环境科学学报,2003,23(4):468-471.Song Y,Tang X Y,Fang C,et al.Relationship between the visibility degradation and particle pollution in Beijing[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2003,23(4):468-471.
[11]PopeⅢC A,Hill R W,Villegas G M.Particulate air pollution and daily mortality on Utah's Wasatch Front[J].Environmental Health Perspectives,1999,107(7):567-573.
[12]谢元博,陈娟,李巍.雾霾重污染期间北京居民对高浓度PM2.5持续暴露的健康风险及其损害价值评估[J].环境科学,2014,35(1):1-8.Xie Y B,Chen J,Li W.An assessment of PM2.5related health risks and impaired values of Beijing residents in a consecutive high-level exposure during heavy haze days[J].Environmental Science,2014,35(1):1-8.
[13]王新,聂燕,陈红,等.兰州城区大气PM2.5污染特征及来源解析[J].环境科学,2016,37(5):1619-1628.Wang X,Nie Y,Chen H,et al.Pollution characteristics and source apportionment of PM2.5in Lanzhou City[J].Environmental Science,2016,37(5):1619-1628.
[14]周雪明,郑乃嘉,李英红,等.2011~2012北京大气PM2.5中重金属的污染特征与来源分析[J].环境科学,2017,38(10):4054-4060.Zhou X M,Zheng N J,Li Y H,et al.Chemical characteristics and sources of heavy metals in fine particles in Beijing in 2011-2012[J].Environmental Science,2017,38(10):4054-4060.
[15]吴文景,常兴,邢佳,等.京津冀地区主要排放源减排对PM2.5污染改善贡献评估[J].环境科学,2017,38(3):867-875.Wu W J,Chang X,Xing J,et al.Assessment of PM2.5pollution mitigation due to emission reduction from main emission sources in the Bejing-Tianjin-Hebei Region[J].Environmental Science,2017,38(3):867-875.
[16]王振波,梁龙武,林雄斌,等.京津冀城市群空气污染的模式总结与治理效果评估[J].环境科学,2017,38(10):4005-4014.Wang Z B,Liang L W,Lin X B,et al.Control models and effect evaluation of air pollution in Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration[J].Environmental Science,2017,38(10):4005-4014.
[17]中国清洁空气联盟.空气污染治理国际经验介绍之伦敦烟雾治理历程[R].北京:中国清洁空气联盟,2013.
[18]孟露露,单春艳,白志鹏,等.中国城市PM2.5空气质量改善分阶段目标研究[J].中国环境监测,2017,33(2):1-10.Meng L L,Shan C Y,Bai Z P,et al.Phased-in targets of PM2.5air quality improvement in Chinese cities[J].Environmental Monitoring of China,2017,33(2):1-10.
[19]王金南.控制PM2.5污染:中国路线图与政策机制[M].北京:科学出版社,2016.316.
[20]United States Environmental Protection Agency.Particulate matter(PM2.5)trends[EB/OL].https://www.epa.gov/airtrends/particulate-matter-pm25-trends,2018-04-10.
[21]孟露露,单春艳,李洋阳,等.美国PM2.5未达标区控制对策及对中国的启示[J].南开大学学报(自然科学版),2016,49(1):54-61.Meng L L,Shan C Y,Li Y Y,et al.Control strategy of PM2.5nonattainment area in the united states and its enlightenment to China[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Nankaiensis,2016,49(1):54-61.
[22]California Air Resources Board.Air quality and meteorological information system[EB/OL].https://www.arb.ca.gov/aqmis2/aqmis2.php,2018-04-10.
[23]European Environment Agency.Air quality in Europe-2014report[R].Denmark:European Environment Agency,2014.
[24]Ministry of the Environment Government of Japan.Annual report on environmental statistics 2017[EB/OL].http://www.env.go.jp/en/statistics/e2017.html,2018-04-10.
[25]中华人民共和国生态环境部.城市空气质量状况月报[EB/OL].http://www.mep.gov.cn/hjzl/dqhj/cskqzlzkyb/index_1.shtml,2018-04-10.
[26]中国清洁空气联盟.京津冀如何实现空气质量达标?-基于情景分析的京津冀地区PM2.5达标情景研究[R].北京:中国清洁空气联盟,2016.
[27]中国清洁空气联盟.长三角如何实现空气质量达标?上海、江苏、浙江的PM2.5达标情景分析[R].上海:中国清洁空气联盟,2016.
[28]姜磊,周海峰,赖志柱,等.中国城市PM2.5时空动态变化特征分析:2015-2017年[J].环境科学学报,2018,38(10):3816-3825.Jiang L,Zhou H F,Lai Z Z,et al.Analysis of spatio-temporal characteristic of PM2.5concentrations of Chinese cities:2015-2017[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2018,38(10):3816-3825.
[29]孙秀艳,刘毅,寇江泽,等.打赢蓝天保卫战三年行动启动(在习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想指引下---新时代新气象新作为)[N].人民日报,2018-02-04(01).
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