改革开放40年中国家庭发展能力变化研究
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摘要
家庭作为最基本的社会单位,其发展能力决定了社会整体发展能力水平的高低,家庭发展能力测度是制定家庭发展政策的科学前提。文章构建家庭发展能力指标体系,运用基于主成分分析法的耦合分析方法对中国家庭发展能力进行测度,通过主成分分析确定家庭发展系统各指标权重,得出各子系统的发展指数权重。分析结果显示:改革开放40年以来中国家庭发展能力的综合指数经历了稳步上升的过程,与此同时也存在家庭发展内部结构的不平衡性。家庭经济、家庭人口再生产和家庭生活发展三个子系统在发展过程中表现出较大的差异,家庭经济和家庭生活发展能力持续提升,家庭人口再生产能力逐年下降,使得家庭发展能力三个子系统协调度先升后降,家庭人口再生产能力的下降影响了中国家庭发展能力。中国家庭发展能力三个子系统耦合度不断提升表明各子系统之间的相互作用影响力加强,未来国家应着重加强家庭人口再生产能力建设,在教育、医疗、养老及税收等各方面给予家庭更多的精准扶持,改善家庭发展能力内部不平衡性,促进各子系统协调发展从而使中国家庭发展能力持续稳定提升。
The family is basic unit of society,and its development ability determines the level of the overall social development ability. The measurement of family development ability is the scientific premise for the formulation of family development policies. This paper constructs the index system of family development ability,measures the family development ability in China,and applies the coupling analysis method based on principal component analysis. The development index weight of each subsystem is obtained through principal component analysis,which makes up for the defect of subjective assignment of first-level index in most coupling methods,and makes the coupling degree analysis more objective and reasonable. The result shows that the comprehensive index of Chinese family's development ability has been rising steadily since the reform and opening up 40 years ago. At the same time,there is also an imbalance in the internal structure of family development. The three subsystems of family economy,Population reproduction development and life development show great differences in the development process:the development ability of family economy and life continues to improve,while the ability of family Population reproduction development gradually decreases. The coordination degree of the three sub-systems of family development ability rises first and then falls,and the family Population reproduction development ability becomes the weak board that affects the family development ability of China. The increasing coupling degree of the three subsystems of Chinese family development capability indicates that the interaction influence among the subsystems is strengthened. In the future,the country should focus on strengthening the reproduction capacity of the family,give more precise support to the family itself in education,medical care,old-age care,tax and other aspects,improve the internal imbalance of the family development ability,and promote the coordinated development of various subsystems so as to continuously and steadily improve the development ability of the Chinese family.
The family is basic unit of society,and its development ability determines the level of the overall social development ability. The measurement of family development ability is the scientific premise for the formulation of family development policies. This paper constructs the index system of family development ability,measures the family development ability in China,and applies the coupling analysis method based on principal component analysis. The development index weight of each subsystem is obtained through principal component analysis,which makes up for the defect of subjective assignment of first-level index in most coupling methods,and makes the coupling degree analysis more objective and reasonable. The result shows that the comprehensive index of Chinese family's development ability has been rising steadily since the reform and opening up 40 years ago. At the same time,there is also an imbalance in the internal structure of family development. The three subsystems of family economy,Population reproduction development and life development show great differences in the development process:the development ability of family economy and life continues to improve,while the ability of family Population reproduction development gradually decreases. The coordination degree of the three sub-systems of family development ability rises first and then falls,and the family Population reproduction development ability becomes the weak board that affects the family development ability of China. The increasing coupling degree of the three subsystems of Chinese family development capability indicates that the interaction influence among the subsystems is strengthened. In the future,the country should focus on strengthening the reproduction capacity of the family,give more precise support to the family itself in education,medical care,old-age care,tax and other aspects,improve the internal imbalance of the family development ability,and promote the coordinated development of various subsystems so as to continuously and steadily improve the development ability of the Chinese family.
引文
[1]杨舸.社会转型视角下的家族结构和代际居住模式——以上海、浙江、福建的调查为例[J].人口学刊,2017,(2):5-16.
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[3]王月菊,陈文江,李勇进,王娜.人口、户数和家庭规模变动对资源消耗的影响分析——基于IPAT等式和结构分解分析模型[J].生态经济,2015,31(6):23-27.
[4]国家卫生计生委家庭司.中国家庭发展报告2016[M].北京:中国人口出版社,2016:9-10.
[5]张秀兰,徐月宾.建构中国的发展型家庭政策[J].中国社会科学,2003,(6):84-96.
[6]Skinner H,Steinhauer P. Family Assessment Measure and Process Model of Famlily Functioning[J]. Jounal of Family Therapy,2000,22(2):190-210.
[7]Walsh,F. Normal Family Processes(3rd Edition)[M]. New York:Guiford,2003:514-547.
[8]Fodoré,Glass C. Labor Market Context,Economic Development,and Family Policy Arrangements:Explaining the Gender Gap in Employment in Central and Eastern Europe[J]. Social Forces,2018,96(3):1275-1302.
[9]Glass D. Population Policies and Movements in Europe[M]. Oxford:Clarendon Press,1940.
[10]Chung H. Dualization and the Access to Occupational Family-friendly Working-time Arrangements across Europe[J].Social Policy&Administration,2018,52(2):491-507.
[11]Yakita A. Fertility andEducationDecisionsandChild-carePolicyEffectsinaNash-bargainingFamilyModel[J]. Journal of Population Economics,2018,31(1):1-25.
[12]Miguel E S,Gandasegui V D,García M T S. Family Policy Index:A Tool for Policy Makers to Increase the Effectiveness of Family Policies[J]. Social Indicators Research,2018,(1):1-23.
[13]Martin G,Kats V. Families and Work in Transition in 12 Countries,1980-2001[J]. Monthly Labor Review,2003,33(2):191-223.
[14]Todd E. The Explanation of Ideology:Family Structures and Social Systems[M]. Oxford:Basil Blackwell,1985.
[15]Newton G W. Thoughts on Public Policy to Increase Family-based Care and Decrease Institutional Care[J]. Child Abuse&Neglect,2017,70:399.
[16]Meysen T,Kelly L. Child Protection Systems between Professional Cooperation and Trustful Relationships:A Comparison of Professional Practical and Ethical Dilemmas in England/Wales,Germany,Portugal,and Slovenia[J]. Child&Family Social Work,2017,(3):1-8.
[17]Aldous J D W A,Johnson K. The Politics and Programs of Family Policy:United States and European Per-spectiver[M]. Leuven:Leuven University Press,1980.
[18]Brinton M C. The Politics of Work-family Policies:Comparing Japan,France,Germany and the United States[J]. Public Administration,2017,9:2-4.
[19]张现苓.积极应对后人口转变努力创建家庭友好型社会——“可持续发展视野下的人口问题:生育转变与社会政策应对国际研讨会”综述[J].人口研究,2018,42(1):104-112.
[20]吴帆,李建民.家庭发展能力建设的政策路径分析[J].人口研究,2012,36(4):37-44.
[21]黄玲,郭显超.家庭发展能力评价指标体系构建方法的探讨[J].统计与管理,2018,(7):100-104.
[22]上海市闵行区人口和计划生育委员会课题组.家庭发展能力建设的实践探索与指标体系建设[J].上海党史与党建,2013,(3):56-58.
[23]杜本峰,李碧清.农村计划生育家庭生计状况与发展能力分析——基于可持续性分析框架[J].人口研究,2014,38(4):50-62.
[24]石智雷.计划生育政策对家庭发展能力的影响及其政策含义[J].公共管理学报,2014,11(4):83-94.
[25]魏慧静.家庭发展能力测度及其影响因素研究[D].保定:河北大学,2014.
[26]逯进,陈阳,郭志仪.社会福利、经济增长与区域发展差异——基于中国省域数据的耦合实证分析[J].中国人口科学,2012,(3):31-43.
[27]逯进,常虹,赵少平,许抄军.山东省能源、经济与环境耦合关系的演化特征[J].经济地理,2016,36(9):42-48.
[28]曾鸣,王亚娟.基于主成分分析法的我国能源、经济、环境系统耦合协调度研究[J].华北电力大学学报(社会科学版),2013,(3):1-6.
[29]廖重斌.环境与经济协调发展的定量评判及其分类体系——以珠江三角洲城市群为例[J].热带地理,1999,(2):76-82.
[30]逯进,常虹,郭志仪.中国省域能源、经济与环境耦合的演化机制研究[J].中国人口科学,2016,(3):23-33.
[31]姜磊,柏玲,吴玉鸣.中国省域经济、资源与环境协调分析——兼论三系统耦合公式及其扩展形式[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(5):788-799.
[32]吴帆.中国家庭功能变化与家庭发展能力建设[J].人口与计划生育,2017,(9):35-37.
[33]宗庆庆,续继.转型期中国居民家庭收入与子女高等教育机会——基于家庭收入结构外生变化事实[J].世界经济文汇,2016,(6):24-41.
[34]王跃生.城市第一代独生子女家庭亲子居住方式分析[J].中国人口科学,2016,(5):49-65.
[35]余玲铮.中国城镇家庭消费及不平等的动态演进:代际效应与年龄效应[J].中国人口科学,2015,(6):69-79.
[36]宁雯雯,慈勤英.家庭养老弱化下的贫困老年人口社会支持研究[J].中国人口科学,2018,(4):68-80.
[37]原新,穆滢潭.“生”与“不生”的矛盾——家庭资源、文化价值还是子女性别?[J].人口研究,2018,42(1):90-103.
[38]石智雷,马忠东.流动过程影响婚姻稳定性研究[J].人口研究,2017,41(1):70-83.
[2]王军平.欧洲的家庭发展政策及其借鉴价值[J].理论探索,2012,(3):98-100.
[3]王月菊,陈文江,李勇进,王娜.人口、户数和家庭规模变动对资源消耗的影响分析——基于IPAT等式和结构分解分析模型[J].生态经济,2015,31(6):23-27.
[4]国家卫生计生委家庭司.中国家庭发展报告2016[M].北京:中国人口出版社,2016:9-10.
[5]张秀兰,徐月宾.建构中国的发展型家庭政策[J].中国社会科学,2003,(6):84-96.
[6]Skinner H,Steinhauer P. Family Assessment Measure and Process Model of Famlily Functioning[J]. Jounal of Family Therapy,2000,22(2):190-210.
[7]Walsh,F. Normal Family Processes(3rd Edition)[M]. New York:Guiford,2003:514-547.
[8]Fodoré,Glass C. Labor Market Context,Economic Development,and Family Policy Arrangements:Explaining the Gender Gap in Employment in Central and Eastern Europe[J]. Social Forces,2018,96(3):1275-1302.
[9]Glass D. Population Policies and Movements in Europe[M]. Oxford:Clarendon Press,1940.
[10]Chung H. Dualization and the Access to Occupational Family-friendly Working-time Arrangements across Europe[J].Social Policy&Administration,2018,52(2):491-507.
[11]Yakita A. Fertility andEducationDecisionsandChild-carePolicyEffectsinaNash-bargainingFamilyModel[J]. Journal of Population Economics,2018,31(1):1-25.
[12]Miguel E S,Gandasegui V D,García M T S. Family Policy Index:A Tool for Policy Makers to Increase the Effectiveness of Family Policies[J]. Social Indicators Research,2018,(1):1-23.
[13]Martin G,Kats V. Families and Work in Transition in 12 Countries,1980-2001[J]. Monthly Labor Review,2003,33(2):191-223.
[14]Todd E. The Explanation of Ideology:Family Structures and Social Systems[M]. Oxford:Basil Blackwell,1985.
[15]Newton G W. Thoughts on Public Policy to Increase Family-based Care and Decrease Institutional Care[J]. Child Abuse&Neglect,2017,70:399.
[16]Meysen T,Kelly L. Child Protection Systems between Professional Cooperation and Trustful Relationships:A Comparison of Professional Practical and Ethical Dilemmas in England/Wales,Germany,Portugal,and Slovenia[J]. Child&Family Social Work,2017,(3):1-8.
[17]Aldous J D W A,Johnson K. The Politics and Programs of Family Policy:United States and European Per-spectiver[M]. Leuven:Leuven University Press,1980.
[18]Brinton M C. The Politics of Work-family Policies:Comparing Japan,France,Germany and the United States[J]. Public Administration,2017,9:2-4.
[19]张现苓.积极应对后人口转变努力创建家庭友好型社会——“可持续发展视野下的人口问题:生育转变与社会政策应对国际研讨会”综述[J].人口研究,2018,42(1):104-112.
[20]吴帆,李建民.家庭发展能力建设的政策路径分析[J].人口研究,2012,36(4):37-44.
[21]黄玲,郭显超.家庭发展能力评价指标体系构建方法的探讨[J].统计与管理,2018,(7):100-104.
[22]上海市闵行区人口和计划生育委员会课题组.家庭发展能力建设的实践探索与指标体系建设[J].上海党史与党建,2013,(3):56-58.
[23]杜本峰,李碧清.农村计划生育家庭生计状况与发展能力分析——基于可持续性分析框架[J].人口研究,2014,38(4):50-62.
[24]石智雷.计划生育政策对家庭发展能力的影响及其政策含义[J].公共管理学报,2014,11(4):83-94.
[25]魏慧静.家庭发展能力测度及其影响因素研究[D].保定:河北大学,2014.
[26]逯进,陈阳,郭志仪.社会福利、经济增长与区域发展差异——基于中国省域数据的耦合实证分析[J].中国人口科学,2012,(3):31-43.
[27]逯进,常虹,赵少平,许抄军.山东省能源、经济与环境耦合关系的演化特征[J].经济地理,2016,36(9):42-48.
[28]曾鸣,王亚娟.基于主成分分析法的我国能源、经济、环境系统耦合协调度研究[J].华北电力大学学报(社会科学版),2013,(3):1-6.
[29]廖重斌.环境与经济协调发展的定量评判及其分类体系——以珠江三角洲城市群为例[J].热带地理,1999,(2):76-82.
[30]逯进,常虹,郭志仪.中国省域能源、经济与环境耦合的演化机制研究[J].中国人口科学,2016,(3):23-33.
[31]姜磊,柏玲,吴玉鸣.中国省域经济、资源与环境协调分析——兼论三系统耦合公式及其扩展形式[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(5):788-799.
[32]吴帆.中国家庭功能变化与家庭发展能力建设[J].人口与计划生育,2017,(9):35-37.
[33]宗庆庆,续继.转型期中国居民家庭收入与子女高等教育机会——基于家庭收入结构外生变化事实[J].世界经济文汇,2016,(6):24-41.
[34]王跃生.城市第一代独生子女家庭亲子居住方式分析[J].中国人口科学,2016,(5):49-65.
[35]余玲铮.中国城镇家庭消费及不平等的动态演进:代际效应与年龄效应[J].中国人口科学,2015,(6):69-79.
[36]宁雯雯,慈勤英.家庭养老弱化下的贫困老年人口社会支持研究[J].中国人口科学,2018,(4):68-80.
[37]原新,穆滢潭.“生”与“不生”的矛盾——家庭资源、文化价值还是子女性别?[J].人口研究,2018,42(1):90-103.
[38]石智雷,马忠东.流动过程影响婚姻稳定性研究[J].人口研究,2017,41(1):70-83.
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