基于DPSIR-TOPSIS模型的江苏省生态承载力评价及障碍因素诊断
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摘要
[目的]以江苏省为研究对象,依据其资源禀赋对2001—2015年的生态承载力进行评价,并对其障碍度进行诊断,为促进该区域生态承载力的提升提供科学依据。[方法]利用DPSIR模型构建评价指标体系,通过熵权法对指标权重进行赋值,采用TOPSIS分析法和障碍度模型进行实证分析。[结果]江苏省生态承载力呈N形的演变态势,综合贴近度处于"差"状态;从分类指标情况看,压力、驱动力和响应子系统评价指数呈不同程度的上升趋势,影响子系统的评价指数呈下降趋势,而状态子系统的评价指数保持稳定;从障碍度诊断结果看,响应子系统是影响江苏省生态承载力的主要障碍因素。[结论]江苏省的社会、经济和生态的耦合协调度较低,应从加大环境财政的投入、完善基础设施建设、加强生态文明制度建设和拓展生态发展空间等方面提出改进策略。
[Objective] Taking Jiangsu Province as the research object, the ecological carrying capacity during 2001—2005 was evaluated according to its resource endowment and the degree of obstacle was diagnosed in order to provide scientific basis for the promotion of ecological bearing capacity in the area. [Methods] The DPSIR was used to construct and establish index system and then the index weights were assigned by the entropy weight method, the TOPSIS analysis method and obstacle degree model were applied for empirical analysis. [Results] The ecological carrying capacity of Jiangsu Province indicated a "N" shaped trend evolution, and the comprehensive closeness was at the poor stage. From the perspective of classification indicators, the pressure, driving and response subsystem evaluation index experienced different levels of upward trend while the evaluation index of subsystem was a downward trend, station subsystem remains stable. From the diagnostic result of obstacle degree, the response subsystem is one of the main factors that affect the ecological carrying capacity of Jiangsu Province. [Conclusion] The coupling and coordination degree of society, economy and ecology is relatively low in Jiangsu Province. It should put forward increasing investment in environmental finance, improving infrastructure construction, strengthening the construction of ecological civilization system and expanding the space for ecological development, so as to promote the improvement of ecological carrying capacity in Jiangsu Province.
[Objective] Taking Jiangsu Province as the research object, the ecological carrying capacity during 2001—2005 was evaluated according to its resource endowment and the degree of obstacle was diagnosed in order to provide scientific basis for the promotion of ecological bearing capacity in the area. [Methods] The DPSIR was used to construct and establish index system and then the index weights were assigned by the entropy weight method, the TOPSIS analysis method and obstacle degree model were applied for empirical analysis. [Results] The ecological carrying capacity of Jiangsu Province indicated a "N" shaped trend evolution, and the comprehensive closeness was at the poor stage. From the perspective of classification indicators, the pressure, driving and response subsystem evaluation index experienced different levels of upward trend while the evaluation index of subsystem was a downward trend, station subsystem remains stable. From the diagnostic result of obstacle degree, the response subsystem is one of the main factors that affect the ecological carrying capacity of Jiangsu Province. [Conclusion] The coupling and coordination degree of society, economy and ecology is relatively low in Jiangsu Province. It should put forward increasing investment in environmental finance, improving infrastructure construction, strengthening the construction of ecological civilization system and expanding the space for ecological development, so as to promote the improvement of ecological carrying capacity in Jiangsu Province.
引文
[1] 曹智,闵庆文等.基于生态系统服务的生态承载力:概念、内涵与评估模型及应用[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(1):1-11.
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[8] 乔蕻强,程文仕.基于DPSIR模型的土地整治规划环境影响评价[J].水土保持通报,2017,37(2):308-312.
[9] 池源,石洪华,孙景宽,等.城镇化背景下海岛资源环境承载力评估[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(8):1374-1384.
[10] 郭文栋,梁雪石,魏延军,等.五大连池国家地质公园生态承载力综合评价指标体系研究[J].国土与自然资源研究,2018(4):58-60.
[11] 王奎峰,李娜,于学峰,等.基于P-S-R概念模型的生态环境承载力评价指标体系研究:以山东半岛为例[J].环境科学学报,2014,34(8):2133-2139.
[12] 周智,黄英,黄娟.农村生态环境承载力的空间异质性变化[J].贵州农业科学,2014,42(4):194-198.
[13] 郑晶,于浩,黄森慰.基于DPSIR-TOPSIS模型的福建省生态环境承载力评价及障碍因素研究[J].环境科学学报,2017,37(11):4391-4398.
[14] 金悦,陆兆华,檀菲菲,等.典型资源型城市生态承载力评价:以唐山市为例[J].生态学报,2015,35(14):4852-4859.
[15] 何刚,夏业领,朱艳娜,等.基于DPSIR-TOPSIS模型的安徽省土地承载力评价及预测[J].水土保持通报,2018,38(2):127-134.
[16] 雷勋平,邱广华.基于熵权TOPSIS模型的区域资源环境承载力评价实证研究[J].环境科学学报,2016,36(1):314-323.
[2] 刘晶,林琳.长江生态经济区城市群综合承载力的实证分析[J].统计与决策,2018(17):94-97.
[3] 李金海.区域生态承载力与可持续发展[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2001,11(3):76-78.
[4] 高吉喜.可持续发展理论探讨:生态承载力理论、方法与应用[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2001.
[5] 余丹林,毛汉英,高群.状态空间衡量区域承载状况初探:以环渤海地区为例[J].地理研究,2003,22(2):201-210.
[6] Jusup M,Klanjseek J.Estimating ecological carrying capacity for finfish mariculture[C]//Abstracts of Eco-Summit 2007:Ecological Complexity and Sustainability:Challenges&Opportunities for 21st Century’s Ecology.Beijing:Ecological Society of China,2007.
[7] 李民,邓楚雄等.基于DPSIR模型的长沙市低碳经济发展水平变化评价[J].农业现代化研究,2016,37(3):453-459.
[8] 乔蕻强,程文仕.基于DPSIR模型的土地整治规划环境影响评价[J].水土保持通报,2017,37(2):308-312.
[9] 池源,石洪华,孙景宽,等.城镇化背景下海岛资源环境承载力评估[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(8):1374-1384.
[10] 郭文栋,梁雪石,魏延军,等.五大连池国家地质公园生态承载力综合评价指标体系研究[J].国土与自然资源研究,2018(4):58-60.
[11] 王奎峰,李娜,于学峰,等.基于P-S-R概念模型的生态环境承载力评价指标体系研究:以山东半岛为例[J].环境科学学报,2014,34(8):2133-2139.
[12] 周智,黄英,黄娟.农村生态环境承载力的空间异质性变化[J].贵州农业科学,2014,42(4):194-198.
[13] 郑晶,于浩,黄森慰.基于DPSIR-TOPSIS模型的福建省生态环境承载力评价及障碍因素研究[J].环境科学学报,2017,37(11):4391-4398.
[14] 金悦,陆兆华,檀菲菲,等.典型资源型城市生态承载力评价:以唐山市为例[J].生态学报,2015,35(14):4852-4859.
[15] 何刚,夏业领,朱艳娜,等.基于DPSIR-TOPSIS模型的安徽省土地承载力评价及预测[J].水土保持通报,2018,38(2):127-134.
[16] 雷勋平,邱广华.基于熵权TOPSIS模型的区域资源环境承载力评价实证研究[J].环境科学学报,2016,36(1):314-323.
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