PLS模型下空气污染影响因素的统计测度——以中原五省为例

详细信息    查看全文 | 推荐本文 |

英文篇名：The Statistioal Measurement of Factors influencing Air Pollution under the PLS Model ——Take the Five Provinces in Central China as an Example 作者：常思远 英文作者：CHANG Siyuan;School of Finance and Economics, Jiangsu University; 关键词：空气污染 ; 影响因素 ; 偏最小二乘回归 ; 预测 英文关键词：Air Pollution;;Factor of influence;;Partial Least Squares Regression;;Prediction 中文刊名：安阳师范学院学报 英文刊名：Journal of Anyang Normal University 机构：江苏大学财经学院; 出版日期：2019-04-15 出版单位：安阳师范学院学报 年：2019 期：02 语种：中文; 页：25-30 页数：6 CN：41-1331/Z ISSN：1671-5330 分类号：X51

摘要

"十三五"以来,各级政府越来越重视空气污染等环境污染问题。利用2011年至2017年中原五个省份的面板数据,建立偏最小二乘回归(PLS)模型,从经济、能耗、交通、技术创新和政府响应五个方面分析影响空气污染的因素。实证表明:经济、能耗和交通对空气污染有正向影响,而技术创新和政府响应则具有抑制作用。模型预测精度达到0.837,预测结果较好。
        Since the 13 th five-year plan, governments at all levels have paid increasing attention to air pollution and other problems of environmental pollution. The partial least squares regression(PLS) was established by using panel data of five provinces in central China from 2011 to 2017. Factors affecting air pollution were analyzed from five aspects including economy, energy consumption, transportation, technological innovation and government response. The empirical results show that economy, energy consumption and transportation have positive effects on air pollution, while technological innovation and government response have inhibitory effects. The predictive accuracy of the model reaches 0.837, and the predictiove result is good.

引文

[1]Soumyananda Dinda.Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis:A Survey[J].Ecological Economics,2004,49(4).
    [2]李斌,李拓.中国空气污染库兹涅茨曲线的实证研究——基于动态面板系统GMM与门限模型检验[J].经济问题,2014(04):17-22.
    [3]李茜,宋金平,张建辉,于伟,胡昊.中国城市化对环境空气质量影响的演化规律研究[J].环境科学学报,2013,33(09):2402-2411.
    [4]韩楠,于维洋.中国产业结构对环境污染影响的计量分析[J].统计与决策,2015(20):133-136.
    [5]吴振信,闫洪举.空间异质视角下产业结构对环渤海大气污染的影响分析[J].中国市场,2016(20):74-76.
    [6]Frank A.A.M.de Leeuw,Nicolas Moussiopoulos,Peter Sahm,Alena Bartonova.Urban air quality in larger conurbations in the European Union[J].Environmental Modelling and Software,2001,16(4).
    [7]王敏,黄滢.中国的环境污染与经济增长[J].经济学(季刊),2015,14(02):557-578.
    [8]Mrinal K.Ghose,R.Paul,S.K.Banerjee.Assessment of the impacts of vehicular emissions on urban air quality and its management in Indian context:the case of Kolkata (Calcutta)[J].Environmental Science and Policy,2004,7(4).
    [9]高纹,杨昕.经济增长与大气污染——基于城市面板数据的联立方程估计[J].南京审计大学学报,2019,16(02):90-99.
    [10]Hixson M ,Mahmud A ,Hu J ,et al.Influence of regional development policies and clean technology adoption on future air pollution exposure[J].Atmospheric Environment,2010,44(4):552-562.
    [11]陈平,赵淑莉,范庆.解析日本空气环境质量标准体系[J].环境与可持续发展,2012,37(04):74-79.
    [12]牛海鹏,杜雯翠,朱艳春.排污费征收、技术创新与污染排放[J].经济与管理评论,2012,28(04):51-56.
    [13]徐业傲.环保投资对中国工业废气减排影响研究[D].杭州:浙江理工大学,2014.
    [14]Feinerman E ,Plessner Y ,Disegni Eshel D M .Recycled Effluent:Should the Polluter Pay[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,2001,83(4):958-971.
    [15]Smith R I Air pollution statistics in policy applications[J].Novartis Foundation symposium:1528-2511,1999,220:227-39;discussion:239-42.
    [16]Mei-Li You,Chi-Min Shu,Wei-Ting Chen,Mei-Ling Shyu.Analysis of cardinal grey relational grade and grey entropy on achievement of air pollution reduction by evaluating air quality trend in Japan[J].Journal of Cleaner Production:0959-6526,2017,142:3883-3889.
    [17]姜磊,周海峰,柏玲,陈忠升.空气质量指数(AQI)的社会经济影响因素分析——基于指数衰减效应视角[J].环境科学学报,2018,38(01):390-398.
    [18]张丽峰.北京经济增长与空气污染关系的实证研究——基于脱钩理论与VAR模型[J].资源开发与市场,2017,33(03):316-321.
    [19]张志威.空气污染状况的多元统计分析[J].产业与科技论坛.2017(03):39-41.