黄河“八七”分水方案的适应性评价与提升策略
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摘要
黄河"八七"分水方案是流域水资源管理的重要依据。颁布30余年来,黄河流域自然环境、经济社会等发生了显著变化,亟需科学认识分水方案对环境变化扰动的适应性。运用动力系统原理构建分水方案适应性的动力微分方程和综合评价模型,从敏感性、稳定性、抗力和恢复力4个方面建立包含20个指标的适应性评价指标体系,定量评价1999年以来分水方案的适应性,并采用HP(Hodrick-Prescott)滤波识别适应性变化趋势。结果表明:分水方案对环境变化的适应性良好,19年中63.2%的年份适应性值大于1;适应性先升后降,2005年达到峰值,之后逐渐降低,2014年起适应性值小于1,表现为不适应。分析影响分水方案适应性的主要因素,提出分水方案调整策略,为支撑流域水资源管理提供方向参考。
The Yellow River Water Allocation Scheme("Scheme 1987") provides an important foundation for basin-scale water resources management. The Scheme 1987 has been in place for more than 30 years,during which time both the natural environment and the socioeconomics in the Yellow River basin have changed dramatically. Thus there is an urgent need to assess the adaptability of Scheme 1987 in changing environments. We have developed a dynamic differential equation and comprehensive evaluation model to assess water allocation scheme adaptability using power system principles. We have constructed an index system consisting of 20 metrics of sensibility,stability,resistance,and resilience and used our method to assess Scheme 1987 between 1999 and 2017. The Hodrick-Prescott(HP) filter has been used to reveal the adaptability trend. The results show that Scheme 1987 adapted well to the changing environment,with highly adaptable years accounting for more than 63.2% of the 19-year period. Adaptability increased early,peaking in 2005,and then decreased. The scheme began showing an inability to adapt since 2014. We have identified the major factors influencing the adaptability of Scheme 1987 and suggested some adjustments for basin-scale water resources management.
The Yellow River Water Allocation Scheme("Scheme 1987") provides an important foundation for basin-scale water resources management. The Scheme 1987 has been in place for more than 30 years,during which time both the natural environment and the socioeconomics in the Yellow River basin have changed dramatically. Thus there is an urgent need to assess the adaptability of Scheme 1987 in changing environments. We have developed a dynamic differential equation and comprehensive evaluation model to assess water allocation scheme adaptability using power system principles. We have constructed an index system consisting of 20 metrics of sensibility,stability,resistance,and resilience and used our method to assess Scheme 1987 between 1999 and 2017. The Hodrick-Prescott(HP) filter has been used to reveal the adaptability trend. The results show that Scheme 1987 adapted well to the changing environment,with highly adaptable years accounting for more than 63.2% of the 19-year period. Adaptability increased early,peaking in 2005,and then decreased. The scheme began showing an inability to adapt since 2014. We have identified the major factors influencing the adaptability of Scheme 1987 and suggested some adjustments for basin-scale water resources management.
引文
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[22] 夏军,石卫,雒新萍,等.气候变化下水资源脆弱性的适应性管理新认识[J].水科学进展,2015,26(2):279- 286.(XIA J,SHI W,LUO X P,et al.Revisions on water resources vulnerability and adaption measures under climate change[J].Advances in Water Science,2015,26(2):279- 286.(in Chinese))
[23] GUO Y,SHEN Y.Agricultural water supply/demand changes under projected future climate change in the arid region of northwestern China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2016,540:257- 273.
[24] ZHANG Q,PENG J,SINGH V P,et al.Spatial- temporal variations of precipitation in arid and semiarid regions of China:the Yellow River basin as a case study[J].Global and Planetary Change,2014,114:38- 49.
[25] 王煜,尚文绣,彭少明.基于水库群预报调度的黄河流域干旱应对系统[J].水科学进展,2019,30(2):175- 185.(WANG Y,SHANG W X,PENG S M.Yellow River basin drought response system based on the prediction and operation of cascade reservoirs[J].Advances in Water Science,2019,30(2):175- 185.(in Chinese))
[26] 彭少明,郑小康,王煜,等.黄河流域水资源- 能源- 粮食的协同优化[J].水科学进展,2017,28(5):681- 690.(PENG S M,ZHENG X K,WANG Y,et al.Study on water- food- energy collaborative optimization for Yellow River basin[J].Advances in Water Science,2017,28(5):681- 690.(in Chinese))
[27] 王煜,彭少明,郑小康.黄河流域水量分配方案优化及综合调度的关键科学问题[J].水科学进展,2018,29(5):614- 624.(WANG Y,PENG S M,ZHENG X K.Key scientific issues of water allocation plan optimization and comprehensive operation for Yellow River basin[J].Advances in Water Science,2018,29(5):614- 624.(in Chinese))
[2] CONNOR R.The United Nations world water development report 2015:water for a sustainable world[R].Paris:United Nations Educational,Scientific and Cultural Organization,2015:7- 9.
[3] RAFIK H,ALAN N,RICHARD D.South Asia climate change risks in water management[R].Washington D C:World Bank.Colombo,Sri Lanka:International Water Management Institute,2017:34- 41.
[4] GOHARI A,ESLAMIAN S,MIRCHI A,et al.Water transfer as a solution to water shortage:a fix that can Backfire[J].Journal of Hydrology,2013,491(1):23- 39.
[5] BORGOMEO E,HALL J W,FUNG F,et al.Risk- based water resources planning:incorporating probabilistic nonstationary climate uncertainties[J].Water Resources Research,2015,50(8):6850- 6873.
[6] YIN Y Y,TANG Q H,LIU X C,et al.Water scarcity under various socio- economic pathways and its potential effects on food production in the Yellow River basin[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2017,21(2):791- 804.
[7] LOBELL D B,HOWDEN S M,SMITH D R,et al.A meta- analysis of yield under climate change and adaptation[J].Nature Climate Change,2014,4(4):287- 291.
[8] BANERJEE R R.Farmers′ perception of climate change,impact and adaptation strategies:a case study of four villages in the semi- arid regions of India[J].Natural Hazards,2015,75(3):2829- 2845.
[9] MISTUR E M,KINGSLEY G,MATISOFF D C,et al.Let sleeping bats lie:analyzing institutional adaptation to environmental regulatory change through adaptive management theory[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2018,223:254.
[10] TALALAJ I A.Adaptation of water quality index (WQI) for groundwater quality assessment near the landfill site[J].Journal of Water Chemistry & Technology,2014,36(3):144- 151.
[11] SEGELE Z T,LESLIE L M,LAMB P J.Evaluation and adaptation of a regional climate model for the Horn of Africa:rainfall climatology and interannual variability[J].International Journal of Climatology,2010,29(1):47- 65.
[12] GEAREY M,JEFFREY P.Concepts of legitimacy within the context of adaptive water management strategies[J].Ecological Economics,2007,60(1):129- 137.
[13] GELDOF G D.Adaptive water management:integrated water management on the edge of chaos[J].Water Science and Technology,1995,32(1):7- 13.
[14] BORGOMEO E,HALL J W,FUNG F,et al.Risk- based water resources planning:incorporating probabilistic nonstationary climate uncertainties[J].Water Resources Research,2015,50(8):6850- 6873.
[15] ROSS A.Speeding the transition towards integrated groundwater and surface water management in Australia[J].Journal of Hydrology,2018,567:1- 10.
[16] SEEGERT J,BERENDONK T U,BERNHOFER C,et al.Integrated water resources management under different hydrological,climatic and socio- economic conditions:results and lessons learned from a transdisciplinary IWRM project IWAS[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2014,72(12):4677- 4687.
[17] 郭付友,佟连军,魏强,等.吉林省松花江流域产业系统环境适应性时空分异与影响因素[J].地理学报,2016,71(3):459- 470.(GUO F Y,TONG L J,WEI Q,et al.Spatio- temporal difference and influencing factors of environmental adaptability assessment of industrial system in the Songhua River basin of Jilin Province[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,71(3):459- 470.(in Chinese))
[18] 张慧丽,谭桂菲.基于DEA—熵值法的公路网交通适应性研究[J].交通工程,2018,164(8):297- 302.(ZHANG H L,TAN G F.Research on traffic adaptability of highway network based on DEA- entropy method[J].Traffic Engineering,2018,164(8):297- 302.(in Chinese))
[19] 张玮,王旭,雷晓辉,等.一种基于DS理论的水库适应性调度规则[J].水科学进展,2018,29(5):685- 695.(ZHANG W,WANG X,LEI X H,et al.Adaptive reservoir operating rules based on the Dempster- Shafer evidence theory[J].Advances in Water Science,2018,29(5):685- 695.(in Chinese))
[20] 金菊良,董涛,郦建强,等.不同承载标准下水资源承载力评价[J].水科学进展,2018,29(1):31- 39.(JIN J L,DONG T,LI J Q,et al.Water resources carrying capacity evaluation method under different carrying standards[J].Advances in Water Science,2018,29(1):31- 39.(in Chinese))
[21] 韩瑞玲,朱绍华,张秋娈.唐山市经济与环境发展的适应性评价[J].应用生态学报,2014,25(10):2968- 2974.(HAN R L,ZHU S H,ZHANG Q Y.Adaptability assessment of economic and environmental development of Tangshan,Hebei,China[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2014,25(10):2968- 2974.(in Chinese))
[22] 夏军,石卫,雒新萍,等.气候变化下水资源脆弱性的适应性管理新认识[J].水科学进展,2015,26(2):279- 286.(XIA J,SHI W,LUO X P,et al.Revisions on water resources vulnerability and adaption measures under climate change[J].Advances in Water Science,2015,26(2):279- 286.(in Chinese))
[23] GUO Y,SHEN Y.Agricultural water supply/demand changes under projected future climate change in the arid region of northwestern China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2016,540:257- 273.
[24] ZHANG Q,PENG J,SINGH V P,et al.Spatial- temporal variations of precipitation in arid and semiarid regions of China:the Yellow River basin as a case study[J].Global and Planetary Change,2014,114:38- 49.
[25] 王煜,尚文绣,彭少明.基于水库群预报调度的黄河流域干旱应对系统[J].水科学进展,2019,30(2):175- 185.(WANG Y,SHANG W X,PENG S M.Yellow River basin drought response system based on the prediction and operation of cascade reservoirs[J].Advances in Water Science,2019,30(2):175- 185.(in Chinese))
[26] 彭少明,郑小康,王煜,等.黄河流域水资源- 能源- 粮食的协同优化[J].水科学进展,2017,28(5):681- 690.(PENG S M,ZHENG X K,WANG Y,et al.Study on water- food- energy collaborative optimization for Yellow River basin[J].Advances in Water Science,2017,28(5):681- 690.(in Chinese))
[27] 王煜,彭少明,郑小康.黄河流域水量分配方案优化及综合调度的关键科学问题[J].水科学进展,2018,29(5):614- 624.(WANG Y,PENG S M,ZHENG X K.Key scientific issues of water allocation plan optimization and comprehensive operation for Yellow River basin[J].Advances in Water Science,2018,29(5):614- 624.(in Chinese))
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