新安江上游流域径流变化特征与归因分析
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摘要
开展变化环境下新安江上游流域径流变化及其归因的研究,有助于理解湿润区水循环过程对气候变化和人类活动的响应机制。利用实测径流、气象资料和遥感植被指数(NDVI)数据,基于布迪克假设框架的弹性系数法,分析了新安江上游降水、潜在蒸散发(ET0)和植被变化对径流的影响。结果表明:(1)实测径流序列转折点发生在1999年左右。2000-2015年径流深较1983-1999年下降了281 mm,相对变化率为20.8%,且21世纪初期径流下降尤为显著。(2)2000-2015年下垫面参数n较1983-1999年增加了52.5%,植被变化对径流影响显著增强。径流对气候变化更加敏感,且对降水敏感性超过潜在蒸散发。(3)气候变化是径流变化的主导因素,其次为植被变化。气候变化和植被变化分别导致径流深下降了145.37 mm和140.96 mm,贡献率分别为50.77%和49.23%。NDVI在2000年后增加显著(P<0.001),植被变化的水文效应超过了降水和潜在蒸散发,未来长期的植被生态水文效应研究仍需进一步加强。
Investigation to the variation of streamflow and its drivers in Xin'an River Basin under changing environment will be beneficial for understanding the geographical heterogeneity of water cycle processes in response to climate change and human activities.Using observed discharge at hydrological stations, meteorological data and remote sensing vegetation index(NDVI), the impact of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration(ET0) and vegetation change on runoff in the upper reaches of Xin'an River were analyzed. Results show that:(1) The changing point of streamflow occurred in 1999. From 2000 to 2015, the runoff depth decreased by 281 mm compared with 1983-1999, and the relative change rate was20.8%, especially significant in the early 21 stcentury.(2) After the changing point, the parameter n increased by 52.5%, and the influence of vegetation change on runoff was significantly enhanced. Streamflow is also more sensitive to precipitation than to ET0.(3)Climate change is the dominant factor for the decrease of runoff, followed by vegetation change. The change of climate and vegetation led to a decrease of runoff by-145.37 and140.96 mm, respectively, with contribution rates of 50.77% and 49.23%, respectively. After2000, The NDVI increasing trend reached a very significant level(P<0.001), and the contribution of vegetation change to runoff exceeded precipitation and ET0 individually.However, the long-term research on eco-hydrology effects of vegetation change needs to be further strengthened.
Investigation to the variation of streamflow and its drivers in Xin'an River Basin under changing environment will be beneficial for understanding the geographical heterogeneity of water cycle processes in response to climate change and human activities.Using observed discharge at hydrological stations, meteorological data and remote sensing vegetation index(NDVI), the impact of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration(ET0) and vegetation change on runoff in the upper reaches of Xin'an River were analyzed. Results show that:(1) The changing point of streamflow occurred in 1999. From 2000 to 2015, the runoff depth decreased by 281 mm compared with 1983-1999, and the relative change rate was20.8%, especially significant in the early 21 stcentury.(2) After the changing point, the parameter n increased by 52.5%, and the influence of vegetation change on runoff was significantly enhanced. Streamflow is also more sensitive to precipitation than to ET0.(3)Climate change is the dominant factor for the decrease of runoff, followed by vegetation change. The change of climate and vegetation led to a decrease of runoff by-145.37 and140.96 mm, respectively, with contribution rates of 50.77% and 49.23%, respectively. After2000, The NDVI increasing trend reached a very significant level(P<0.001), and the contribution of vegetation change to runoff exceeded precipitation and ET0 individually.However, the long-term research on eco-hydrology effects of vegetation change needs to be further strengthened.
引文
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[36]ZHANG S L, YANG H B, YANG D W, et al. Quantifying the effect of vegetation change on the regional water balance within the Budyko Framework. Geophysical Research Letters, 2015, 43(3):1140-1148.
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[42]ZHANG P C, SHAO G F, ZHAO G, et al. China's forest policy for the 21stcentury. Science, 2000, 288(5474):2135-2136.
[43]李艳忠,刘昌明,刘小莽,等.植被恢复工程对黄河中游土地利用/覆被变化的影响.自然资源学报, 2016, 31(12):2005-2020.[LI Y Z, LIU C M, LIU X M, et al. Impact of the grain for green project on the land use/cover change in the Middle Yellow River. Journal of Natural Resources, 2016, 31(12):2005-2020.]
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[2]STERLING S M, DUCHARNE A, POLCHER J. The impact of global land-cover change on the terrestrial water cycle.Nature Climate Change, 2013, 3(4):385-390.
[3]WANG S L, FU B J, PIAO S L, et al. Reduced sediment transport in the Yellow River due to anthropogenic changes. Nature Geoscience, 2016, 9(1):38-41.
[4]雷晓辉,王浩,廖卫红,等.变化环境下气象水文预报研究进展.水利学报, 2018, 49(1):9-18.[LEI X H, WANG H, LIAO W H, et al. Advances in hydro-meteorological forecast under changing environment. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2018, 49(1):9-18.]
[5]MILLY P C D, BETANCOURT J, FALKENMARK M, et al. Stationarity is dead:Whither water management?. Science,2008, 319(5863):573-574.
[6]JARAMILLO F, DESTOUNI G. Local flow regulation and irrigation raise global human water consumption and footprint. Science, 2015, 350(6265):1248-1251.
[7]许炯心.黄河中游径流可再生性对于人类活动和气候变化的响应.自然资源学报, 2015, 30(3):423-432.[XU J X.Runoff renewability in the Middle Yellow River in response to human activity and climate change. Journal of Natural Resources, 2015, 30(3):423-432.]
[8]LIU X M, LUO Y Z, YANG T T, et al. Investigation of the probability of concurrent drought events between the water source and destination regions of China's water diversion project. Geophysical Research Letters, 2015, 42(20):8424-8431.
[9]ADAM J C, HADDELAND I, SU F, et al. Simulation of reservoir influences on annual and seasonal streamflow changes for the Lena, Yenisei, and Ob'rivers. Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres, 2007, 112(D24):1-22.
[10]FRANCZYK J, CHANG H. The effects of climate change and urbanization on the runoff of the Rock Creek basin in the Portland metropolitan area, Oregon, USA. Hydrological Processes, 2009, 23(6):805-815.
[11]CHEN Y P, WANG K B, LIN Y S, et al. Balancing green and grain trade. Nature Geoscience, 2015, 8(10):739-741.
[12]JIANG C, XIONG L H, WANG D B, et al. Separating the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff using the Budyko-type equations with time-varying parameters. Journal of Hydrology, 2015, 522(1):326-338.
[13]CHANG J X, WANG Y M, ISTANBULLUOGLU E, et al. Impact of climate change and human activities on runoff in the Weihe River Basin, China. Quaternary International, 2015, 380(1):169-179.
[14]WANG D B, HEJAZI M. Quantifying the relative contribution of the climate and direct human impacts on mean annual streamflow in the contiguous United States. Water Resources Research, 2011, 47(10):1-16.
[15]BROWN A E, ZHANG L, MCMAHON T A, et al. A review of paired catchment studies for determining changes in water yield resulting from alterations in vegetation. Journal of hydrology, 2005, 310(1):28-61.
[16]SCHAAKE J C, WAGGONER P. From Climate to Flow, in Climate Change and U.S. Water Resources. New York:John Wiley, 1990.
[17]LIU M X, XU X L, WANG D B, et al. Karst catchments exhibited higher degradation stress from climate change than the non-karst catchments in Southwest China:An ecohydrological perspective. Journal of Hydrology, 2016, 535(1):173-180.
[18]ZHENG H X, ZHANG L, ZHU R, et al. Responses of streamflow to climate and land surface change in the headwaters of the Yellow River Basin. Water Resources Research, 2009, 45(7):641-648.
[19]LI Y Z, LIU C M, ZHANG D, et al. Reduced runoff due to anthropogenic intervention in the Loess Plateau, China. Water, 2016, 8(458):1-16.
[20]LIU X M, LIU C M, LUO Y Z, et al. Dramatic decrease in streamflow from the headwater source in the central route of China's water diversion project:Climatic variation or human influence?. Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres, 2012, 117(D6):1-10.
[21]刘艳,曹碧波,李川,等. QUAL2Kw-GWLF模型联用在新安江干流黄山段的应用研究.水资源与水工程学报,2014,(6):163-168.[LIU Y, CAO B B, LI C, et al. Application of QUAL2Kw and GWLF model in Huangshan segment of Xin'an River main stream. Journal of Water Resources&Water Engineering, 2014,(6):163-168.]
[22]赵来,崔淑卿,吕成文.黄山市土地利用变化的生态环境效应研究.水土保持研究, 2006, 13(3):215-217.[ZHAO L,CUI S Q, LYU C W. Study on the effect of land use change on the eco-environment of Huangshan. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2006, 13(3):215-217.]
[23]方恺,吴次芳,董亮.城市化进程中的土地自然资本利用动态分析.自然资源学报, 2018, 33(1):1-13.[FANG K, WU C F, DONG L. The use of land natural capital in the context of urbanization. Journal of Natural Resources, 2018, 33(1):1-13.]
[24]刘纪远,匡文慧,张增祥,等. 20世纪80年代末以来中国土地利用变化的基本特征与空间格局.地理学报, 2014, 69(1):3-14.[LIU J Y, KUAGN W H, ZHANG Z X, et al. Spatiotemporal characteristics, patterns and causes of land use changes in China since the late 1980s. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(1):3-14.]
[25]IPCC. Summary for Policymakes:The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Climate Change. 2013.
[26]中国气象局气候变化中心.中国气候变化蓝皮书. 2018.[Center on Climate Change, China Meteorological Administration. China Blue Book on Climate Change. 2018.]
[27]冯爱青,曾红玲,尹宜舟,等. 2017年中国气候主要特征及主要天气气候事件.气象, 2018, 44(4):548-555.[FENG A Q, ZENG H L, YIN Y Z, et al. Climatic characteristic and major meteorological events over China in 2017. Meteorological Monthly, 2018, 44(4):548-555.]
[28]肖志强,兰佳,李慧赟,等.气候与下垫面变化对新安江上游(屯溪站)径流变化贡献率的定量分析.云南大学学报:自然科学版, 2018, 40(3):474-482.[XIAO Z Q, LAN J, LI H Y, et al. Quantitative evaluation of contributions of climate change and underlying surface change to the runoff at the upper catchment of Xin'an jiang(Tunxi Hydrological Station). Journal of Yunnan University, 2018, 40(3):474-482.]
[29]程琼,方增强.新安江干流屯溪以上洪水地区组成分析.江淮水利科技, 2014,(5):16-18.[CHENG Q, FANG Z Q.Analysis of composition of flood areas above the main stream of Xin'an River. Jianghuai Water Resources Technology,2014,(5):16-18.]
[30]ALLEN R G, PEREIRA L S, RAES D, et al. Crop evapotranspiration-guidelines for computing crop water requirements:FAO Irrigation and drainage paper 56. FAO, 1998.
[31]KENDALL M G. Rank Correlation Methods, Biometrika. London:Charles Griffin, 1948.
[32]LIANG K, LIU C M, LIU X M, et al. Impacts of climate variability and human activity on streamflow decrease in a sediment concentrated region in the Middle Yellow River. Stochastic Environmental Research&Risk Assessment, 2013, 27(7):1741-1749.
[33]MODARRES R, SARHADI A. Rainfall trends analysis of Iran in the last half of the twentieth century. Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres, 2009, 114(D3):1-9.
[34]LIU X M, LUO Y Z, ZHANG D, et al. Recent changes in pan-evaporation dynamics in China. Geophysical Research Letters, 2011, 38(13):1-4.
[35]杨大文,张树磊,徐翔宇.基于水热耦合平衡方程的黄河流域径流变化归因分析.中国科学:技术科学, 2015, 45(10):1024-1034.[YANG D W, ZHANG S L, XU X Y. Attribution analysis for runoff decline in Yellow River Basin during past fifty years based on Budyko hypothesis. Science China Technological Sciences, 2015, 45(10):1024-1034.]
[36]ZHANG S L, YANG H B, YANG D W, et al. Quantifying the effect of vegetation change on the regional water balance within the Budyko Framework. Geophysical Research Letters, 2015, 43(3):1140-1148.
[37]刘昌明,李艳忠,刘小莽,等.黄河中游植被变化对水量转化的影响分析.人民黄河, 2016, 38(10):7-12.[LIU C M,LI Y Z, LIU X M, et al. Impact of vegetation change on water transformation in the Middle Yellow River. Yellow River,2016, 38(10):7-12.]
[38]JASECHKO S, SHARP Z D, GIBSON J J, et al. Terrestrial water fluxes dominated by transpiration. Nature, 2013, 496(1):347-350.
[39]郑艳妮,闻昕,方国华.新安江流域气候变化及径流响应研究.水资源与水工程学报, 2015,(1):106-110.[ZHENG Y N, WEN X, FANG G H. Research on climate change and runoff response in Xin'an River Basin. Journal of Water resources&Water Engineering, 2015,(1):106-110.]
[40]ZHU Z C, PIAO S L, MYNENI R B, et al. Greening of the earth and its drivers. Nature Climate Change, 2016, 6(8):791-795.
[41]IMMERZEEL W W, VAN BEEK L P, BIERKENS M F. Climate change will affect the Asian water towers. Science,2010, 328(5984):1382-1385.
[42]ZHANG P C, SHAO G F, ZHAO G, et al. China's forest policy for the 21stcentury. Science, 2000, 288(5474):2135-2136.
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