1970—2013年新疆地区风速变化特征分析
|
摘要
根据1970—2013年共计44年、50个气象站的风速观测数据,分析我国新疆地区多年风速变化特征.采用气候倾向率、克里金空间插值和小波分析方法,探讨新疆地区风速时空变化.实验结果表明:1970—2013年,新疆地区多年平均风速为2.34 m.s~(-1),呈下降趋势,速率为-0.0148 m.s~(-1).a~(-1);四季多年平均风速也都呈下降趋势,且下降速率和平均风速值的大小顺序都是:春季>夏季>秋季>冬季,春季下降速率和冬季下降速率分别为-0.0188 m.s~(-1).a~(-1)和-0.0078 m.s~(-1).a~(-1).风速变化在空间分布上差异明显,主要受到地形影响,其中风速下降率排序为:准格尔盆地周边的北疆地区>塔里木盆地周边的南疆地区>以七角井为中心的东部地区,平均风速大小顺序为:七角井区域>准格尔盆地区域>塔里木盆地区域.平均风速变化存在两类时间尺度的周期性变化特征,分别为24～31年和15～21年,前者时间尺度周期变化比后者更为显著,且28年左右是风速变化的主周期.最后分析风速下降原因,主要考虑到大气环流变化、全球气候变暖和城市化的影响,通过对比新疆地区多年平均风速和温度变化,发现风速随温度升高而降低.
Based on the observation data of wind speed in 44 years and 50 meteorological stations in 1970-2013 years,the characteristics of multi year wind speed variation in Xinjiang area are analyzed.Using the climate trending rate,Kriging space interpolation and wavelet analysis methods,the spatio-temporal changes of wind speed in Xinjiang region were explored.The results showed that:in 1970-2013 years,the average annual wind speed of Xinjiang area is 2.34 m.s~(-1),revealing a downward trend with a rate of-0.0148 m.s~(-1).a~(-1).The mean annual wind speeds of the four seasons also showed a downward trend,and the descending rate and average wind speed values were in the order:spring> summer>autumn> winter,the spring decline rate and the winter decline rate were-0.0188 m.s~(-1).a~(-1)and-0.0078 m.s~(-1).a~(-1),respectively.The spatial distribution of wind speed changes is significantly different,mainly due to the influence of terrain.The rate of decline of wind speed is ranked as:the northern Xinjiang region around the Zhungeer Basin > the southern Xinjiang region around the Tarim Basin > the eastern region centered on the Qijiao Well.The order of average wind speed is:Qijiaojing area>Junger Basin area >Tarim Basin area.There are two types of time-scale periodic changes in mean wind speed changes,which are 24-31 years and 15-21 years,respectively.The time scale of the former is more pronounced than the latter,and the main cycle of wind speed change is about 28 years.Finally,the reasons for the decline of wind speed are analyzed,mainly due to the effects of atmospheric circulation,global warming and urbanization.By comparing the average wind speed and temperature changes in Xinjiang for many years,it is found that the wind speed decreases with increasing temperature.
Based on the observation data of wind speed in 44 years and 50 meteorological stations in 1970-2013 years,the characteristics of multi year wind speed variation in Xinjiang area are analyzed.Using the climate trending rate,Kriging space interpolation and wavelet analysis methods,the spatio-temporal changes of wind speed in Xinjiang region were explored.The results showed that:in 1970-2013 years,the average annual wind speed of Xinjiang area is 2.34 m.s~(-1),revealing a downward trend with a rate of-0.0148 m.s~(-1).a~(-1).The mean annual wind speeds of the four seasons also showed a downward trend,and the descending rate and average wind speed values were in the order:spring> summer>autumn> winter,the spring decline rate and the winter decline rate were-0.0188 m.s~(-1).a~(-1)and-0.0078 m.s~(-1).a~(-1),respectively.The spatial distribution of wind speed changes is significantly different,mainly due to the influence of terrain.The rate of decline of wind speed is ranked as:the northern Xinjiang region around the Zhungeer Basin > the southern Xinjiang region around the Tarim Basin > the eastern region centered on the Qijiao Well.The order of average wind speed is:Qijiaojing area>Junger Basin area >Tarim Basin area.There are two types of time-scale periodic changes in mean wind speed changes,which are 24-31 years and 15-21 years,respectively.The time scale of the former is more pronounced than the latter,and the main cycle of wind speed change is about 28 years.Finally,the reasons for the decline of wind speed are analyzed,mainly due to the effects of atmospheric circulation,global warming and urbanization.By comparing the average wind speed and temperature changes in Xinjiang for many years,it is found that the wind speed decreases with increasing temperature.
引文
[1] 武胜利,刘强吉,潘蕾,等.1961—2013年新疆博斯腾湖流域风速和日照时数变化特征[J].水土保持通报,2017(3):188-194.
[2] 龚宇,邢开成,王璞.近30年来沧州地区日照时数与风速变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2007(3):263-267.
[3] 买苗,火焰,项瑛,等.1960—2012年江苏地区蒸发量变化及影响因子分析[J].气象与环境学报,2015(5):134-140.
[4] 张国平,张增祥,刘纪远.中国土壤风力侵蚀空间格局及驱动因子分析[J].地理学报,2001(2):146-158.
[5] 姬兴杰,朱业玉,顾万龙,等.河南省大风日数时空分布及其对沙尘天气的影响[J].气象与环境学报,2012(1):31-37.
[6] 阎访,岳艳霞,张秉祥,等.石家庄地区大风日数气候变化特征[J].气象与环境学报,2013(2):81-88.
[7] MCVICAR T R,VAN N T G,LI L T,et al.Wind speed climatology and trends for Australia,1975—2006:Capturing the stilling phenomenon and comparison with near-surface reanalysis output[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2008,35(20):288-299.
[8] RODERICK M L,ROTSTAYN L D,FARQUHAR G D,et al.On the attribution of changing pan evaporation[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2007,34(34):251-270.
[9] ARCHER C L,JACOBSON M Z.Evaluation of global wind power[J].Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2005,110(D12):1-20.
[10] 任国玉,郭军,徐铭志,等.近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征[J].气象学报,2005(6):942-956.
[11] 荣艳淑,梁嘉颖.华北地区风速变化的分析[J].气象科学,2008(6):655-658.
[12] 马芹,张晓萍,万龙,等.1957—2009年黄土高原地区风速变化趋势[J].自然资源学报,2012(12):2123-2134.
[13] 郭军,曹经福,杨艳娟.1971—2012年环渤海沿海地区风速变化及其影响因素分析[J].气象与环境学报,2015(4):82-88.
[14] 张克新,潘少明,曹立国.1961～2010年河西地区平均风速时空变化趋势分析[J].地理科学,2014(11):1404-1408.
[15] 蒋冲,王飞,刘焱序,等.秦岭南北风速时空变化及突变特征分析[J].地理科学,2013(2):244-250.
[16] 陈鹤,周顺武,熊安元,等.河北省风能详查区风速日变化特征[J].干旱气象,2011(3):343-349.
[17] 黄小燕,张明军,王圣杰,等.西北地区近50年日照时数和风速变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2011(5):825-835.
[18] 道然·加帕依,车罡.新疆东部地区风速的年代际变化及其成因[J].干旱气象,2008(3):14-21.
[19] 刘强吉,武胜利,罗兰,等.近54年来新疆和田地区平均风速时空变化[J].西南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016(4):45-51.
[20] 刘强吉,武胜利,胡雪瑛,等.1970—2013年新疆博斯腾湖流域最大风速变化特征分析[J].新疆师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016(4):15-19.
[21] 张志斌,杨莹,张小平,等.我国西南地区风速变化及其影响因素[J].生态学报,2014(2):471-481.
[22] 颜慧敏.空间插值技术的开发与实现[D].成都:西南石油学院,2005.
[23] 李淼,夏军,陈社明,等.北京地区近300年降水变化的小波分析[J].自然资源学报,2011(6):1001-1011.
[24] 张志斌,杨莹,张小平,等.我国西南地区风速变化及其影响因素[J].生态学报,2014,34(2):471-481.
[25] 施能,鲁建军,朱乾根.东亚冬、夏季风百年强度指数及其气候变化[J].大气科学学报,1996(2):168-177.
[26] 秦大河,STOCKER THOMAS.IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(1):1-6.
[27] 江滢,罗勇,赵宗慈,等.近50年中国风速变化及原因分析[C]//2007年中国气象学会年会会刊,2007:80-89.
[2] 龚宇,邢开成,王璞.近30年来沧州地区日照时数与风速变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2007(3):263-267.
[3] 买苗,火焰,项瑛,等.1960—2012年江苏地区蒸发量变化及影响因子分析[J].气象与环境学报,2015(5):134-140.
[4] 张国平,张增祥,刘纪远.中国土壤风力侵蚀空间格局及驱动因子分析[J].地理学报,2001(2):146-158.
[5] 姬兴杰,朱业玉,顾万龙,等.河南省大风日数时空分布及其对沙尘天气的影响[J].气象与环境学报,2012(1):31-37.
[6] 阎访,岳艳霞,张秉祥,等.石家庄地区大风日数气候变化特征[J].气象与环境学报,2013(2):81-88.
[7] MCVICAR T R,VAN N T G,LI L T,et al.Wind speed climatology and trends for Australia,1975—2006:Capturing the stilling phenomenon and comparison with near-surface reanalysis output[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2008,35(20):288-299.
[8] RODERICK M L,ROTSTAYN L D,FARQUHAR G D,et al.On the attribution of changing pan evaporation[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2007,34(34):251-270.
[9] ARCHER C L,JACOBSON M Z.Evaluation of global wind power[J].Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2005,110(D12):1-20.
[10] 任国玉,郭军,徐铭志,等.近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征[J].气象学报,2005(6):942-956.
[11] 荣艳淑,梁嘉颖.华北地区风速变化的分析[J].气象科学,2008(6):655-658.
[12] 马芹,张晓萍,万龙,等.1957—2009年黄土高原地区风速变化趋势[J].自然资源学报,2012(12):2123-2134.
[13] 郭军,曹经福,杨艳娟.1971—2012年环渤海沿海地区风速变化及其影响因素分析[J].气象与环境学报,2015(4):82-88.
[14] 张克新,潘少明,曹立国.1961～2010年河西地区平均风速时空变化趋势分析[J].地理科学,2014(11):1404-1408.
[15] 蒋冲,王飞,刘焱序,等.秦岭南北风速时空变化及突变特征分析[J].地理科学,2013(2):244-250.
[16] 陈鹤,周顺武,熊安元,等.河北省风能详查区风速日变化特征[J].干旱气象,2011(3):343-349.
[17] 黄小燕,张明军,王圣杰,等.西北地区近50年日照时数和风速变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2011(5):825-835.
[18] 道然·加帕依,车罡.新疆东部地区风速的年代际变化及其成因[J].干旱气象,2008(3):14-21.
[19] 刘强吉,武胜利,罗兰,等.近54年来新疆和田地区平均风速时空变化[J].西南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016(4):45-51.
[20] 刘强吉,武胜利,胡雪瑛,等.1970—2013年新疆博斯腾湖流域最大风速变化特征分析[J].新疆师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016(4):15-19.
[21] 张志斌,杨莹,张小平,等.我国西南地区风速变化及其影响因素[J].生态学报,2014(2):471-481.
[22] 颜慧敏.空间插值技术的开发与实现[D].成都:西南石油学院,2005.
[23] 李淼,夏军,陈社明,等.北京地区近300年降水变化的小波分析[J].自然资源学报,2011(6):1001-1011.
[24] 张志斌,杨莹,张小平,等.我国西南地区风速变化及其影响因素[J].生态学报,2014,34(2):471-481.
[25] 施能,鲁建军,朱乾根.东亚冬、夏季风百年强度指数及其气候变化[J].大气科学学报,1996(2):168-177.
[26] 秦大河,STOCKER THOMAS.IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(1):1-6.
[27] 江滢,罗勇,赵宗慈,等.近50年中国风速变化及原因分析[C]//2007年中国气象学会年会会刊,2007:80-89.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |