渔业技术进步对渔民增收的影响——基于中国省级面板数据的实证研究
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摘要
渔业技术进步对渔民持续增收有何影响尚存争议。本文基于2004—2014年中国省级面板数据,运用两阶段最小二乘法和门限面板模型分别对捕捞和养殖技术进步的增收效应展开检验。结果显示:①沿海地区捕捞和养殖技术进步均对渔民增收具有显著的正效应;内陆地区仅养殖技术进步增收效应显著,捕捞技术进步的增收效应不明显。②当地方人均GDP低于18792元时,捕捞和养殖技术进步的渔民增收效应不明显;当地方人均GDP高于18792元时,捕捞和养殖技术进步对渔民增收的积极效应开始显现,随着经济发展水平的不断提高,捕捞和养殖技术进步的增收效应越来越大。③当城乡市场分割较为严重时,捕捞和养殖技术进步的增收效应不明显;当城乡市场一体化水平提升到一定程度,捕捞和养殖技术进步的增收效应显现。④捕捞和养殖技术进步增收效应的发挥以一定的城镇化率为门槛,当城镇化率高于0.460时,捕捞和养殖技术进步的增收效应显著。本文为如何贯彻实施"科技兴渔"战略,更好地促进渔民增收提供经验支持。
Whether fishery technology progress leads to continuous increase in fishermen's income is contraversial. Based on provincial panel data in China from 2004 to 2014, the two-stage least squares method and a threshold panel model were used to test the effect of fishing technology progress and aquaculture technology progress on fishermen's income respectively. The results showed that:(1) Fishing technology progress and aquaculture technology progress in coastal areas had a significant positive effect on fishermen's income, while in inland areas, only aquaculture technology progress had a significant effect on fishermen's income, but the effect of fishing technology progress was not obvious.(2) When the per capita GDP was less than 18792 yuan, the effects of fishing technology progress and aquaculture technology progress on fishermen's income were not obvious. When the per capita GDP was higher than 18792 yuan, the positive effects of fishing technology progress and aquaculture technology progress on fishermen's income began to appear. The higher the economic development level, the greater the effect of fishing technology progress and aquaculture technology progress on fishermen's income is.(3) When the market segregation between urban and rural areas was serious, the effects of fishing technology progress and aquaculture technology progress on fishermen's income were not obvious. When the level of integration of urban and rural markets rose to a certain extent, the effects of fishing technology progress and aquaculture technology progress on fishermen's income appeared.(4) The effects of fishing technology progress and aquaculture technology progress on fishermen's income were related to urbanization rates. When the urbanization rate was higher than 0.46, the effects of fishing technology progress and aquaculture technology progress on fishermen's income were significant.The study provides empirical support for implementing the strategy of"invigorating fisheries by technology"and increase fishermen's income.
Whether fishery technology progress leads to continuous increase in fishermen's income is contraversial. Based on provincial panel data in China from 2004 to 2014, the two-stage least squares method and a threshold panel model were used to test the effect of fishing technology progress and aquaculture technology progress on fishermen's income respectively. The results showed that:(1) Fishing technology progress and aquaculture technology progress in coastal areas had a significant positive effect on fishermen's income, while in inland areas, only aquaculture technology progress had a significant effect on fishermen's income, but the effect of fishing technology progress was not obvious.(2) When the per capita GDP was less than 18792 yuan, the effects of fishing technology progress and aquaculture technology progress on fishermen's income were not obvious. When the per capita GDP was higher than 18792 yuan, the positive effects of fishing technology progress and aquaculture technology progress on fishermen's income began to appear. The higher the economic development level, the greater the effect of fishing technology progress and aquaculture technology progress on fishermen's income is.(3) When the market segregation between urban and rural areas was serious, the effects of fishing technology progress and aquaculture technology progress on fishermen's income were not obvious. When the level of integration of urban and rural markets rose to a certain extent, the effects of fishing technology progress and aquaculture technology progress on fishermen's income appeared.(4) The effects of fishing technology progress and aquaculture technology progress on fishermen's income were related to urbanization rates. When the urbanization rate was higher than 0.46, the effects of fishing technology progress and aquaculture technology progress on fishermen's income were significant.The study provides empirical support for implementing the strategy of"invigorating fisheries by technology"and increase fishermen's income.
引文
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1)“众院士专家积极建言献策‘十三五’渔业发展”http://www.fishfirst.cn/article-40255-1.html.
2)数据来源http://www.moa.gov.cn/govpublic/YYJ/201701/t20170123_5462599.htm。
3)由于《中国渔业统计年鉴》[2]中未分别对捕捞渔民和养殖渔民进行统计,为方便下文检验,本文利用捕捞量占水产品总产量之比乘以渔业从业总人数作为捕捞业从业人数的代理变量。
4)本文利用养殖产量占水产品总产量之比乘以渔业从业总人数作为养殖业从业人数的代理变量。
5)具体测算如下:根据中国农村居民家庭劳动力文化程度构成,分为不识字或者识字很少、小学、初中、高中、中专、大专及以上等6类,对应的受教育年限分别为1年、6年、9年、12年、12年和16年。
[2]中华人民共和国农业农村部渔业渔政管理局.中国渔业统计年鉴[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2012-2016.[Fisheries and Fisheries Administration Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas.China Fishery Statistics Yearbook[M].Beijing:China Agricultural Publishing House,2012-2016.]
[3]沈伟腾,胡求光.蓝色牧场空间布局影响因素及其合理度评价:以浙江省为例[J].农业经济问题,2017,38(8):86-112.[Shen WT,Hu Q G.Research on influencing factors and rationality evaluation of spatial arrangement of blue ranching:A case of Zhejiang Province[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,2017,38(8):86-112.]
[4]孙康,季建文,李丽丹,等.基于非期望产出的中国海洋渔业经济效率评价与时空分异[J].资源科学,2017,39(11):2040-2051.[Sun K,Ji J W,Li L D,et al.Marine fishery economic efficiency and its spatio-temporal differences based on undesirable outputs in China[J].Resources Science,2017,39(11):2040-2051.]
[5]王波,倪国江,韩立民.产业结构演进对海洋渔业经济波动的影响[J].资源科学,2019,41(2):289-300.[Wang B,Ni G J,Han LM.Impact of the evolution of industry structure on the economic fluctuation of marine fishery[J].Resources Science,2019,41(2):289-300.]
[6]Solow R M.Technical change and the aggregate production function[J].Review of Economics&Statistics,1957,39(3):312-320.
[7]陆杰华,王广州,李建新,等.人口、消费、技术模式变化对中国海洋渔业生产影响的实证研究:以浙江舟山渔场为例[J].人口与经济,2003,(3):1-7.[Lu J H,Wang G Z,Li J X,et al.An empirical study of the effects of the change in population,consumption and technology on marine fishery and aquatic products:A case study in Zhoushan fishery,Zhejiang Province[J].Population&Economics,2003,(3):1-7.]
[8]席利卿,彭可茂.技术进步、技术效率与中国渔业增长分析[J].中国科技论坛,2010,(3):124-128.[Xi L Q,Peng K M.Analysis on technical efficiency,technological progress and growth of the fishery in China[J].Forum on Science and Technology in China,2010,(3):124-128.]
[9]孙炜琳,刘佩,高春雨.我国淡水养殖渔业技术效率研究:基于随机前沿生产函数[J].农业技术经济,2014,(8):108-117.[Sun SL,Liu P,Gao C Y.Study on technical efficiency of freshwater aquaculture fishery in China production function based on random frontier[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2014,(8):108-117.]
[10]卢昆,高晶晶,郝平.我国海水养殖资源开发评价及其支持政策分析[J].农业经济问题,2016,37(3):95-103.[Lu K,Gao J J,Hao P.Study on the evaluation and supporting policy of Chinese marine aquaculture resources exploitation[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,2016,37(3):95-103.]
[11]沈金生,梁瑞芳.海洋牧场蓝色碳汇定价研究[J].资源科学,2018,40(9):1812-1821.[Shen J S,Liang R F.Study on the blue carbon sink pricing of marine ranch[J].Resources Science,2018,40(9):1812-1821.]
[12]杨义武,林万龙.农业技术进步的增收效应:基于中国省级面板数据的检验[J].经济科学,2016,(5):45-57.[Yang Y W,Lin WL.The effect of agricultural technology progress on farmers’income:Based on tests of provincial panel data in China[J].Economic Science,2016,(5):45-57.]
[13]张欣.自然禀赋、技术进步与沿海地区渔业经济增长[J].科技管理研究,2012,(19):73-77.[Zhang X.Research on fisheries economic growth from the perspective of technical progress and natural endowments[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2012,(19):73-77.]
[14]张晨,林香红,高健.技术进步和制度变迁对上海渔业劳动生产率的影响[J].中国科技论坛,2015,(2):142-147.[Zhang C,Lin X H,Gao J.Effect of technological progress and institutional change on labor productivity:An empirical study on fishery in Shanghai[J].Forum on Science and Technology in China,2015,(2):142-147.]
[15]史磊.中国渔业经济增长方式转变问题研究[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2009.[Shi L.Study on Transforming the Fisheries Economic Growth Pattern in China[D].Qingdao:Ocean University of China,2009.]
[16]高晶晶,史清华,卢昆.中国海水养殖技术效率测评[J].农业技术经济,2018,(1):132-144.[Gao J J,Shi Q H,Lu K.Study on technical efficiency evaluation of Chinese marine aquaculture[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2018,(1):132-144.]
[17]Cochrane W W.Farm Prices,Myth and Reality[M].Minneapolis:University of Minnesota Press,1958.
[18]中华人民共和国农业农村部渔业渔政管理局.中国渔业统计年鉴[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2018.[Fisheries and Fisheries Administration Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas.China Fishery Statistics Yearbook[M].Beijing:China Agricultural Publishing House,2018.]
[19]闫玉科.南海海洋捕捞渔民增收问题研究[J].农业经济问题,2013,34(12):88-93.[Yan Y K.Study on the income of fishermen from marine fishing in the South China Sea[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,2013,34(12):88-93.]
[20]江开勇.农业部副部长于康震在浙江调研时强调积极推进绿色生态内陆渔业发展[J].中国水产,2017,(7):2.[Jiang K Y.Vice minister of agriculture Yu Kangzhen emphasized the development of green ecological inland fishery in Zhejiang research[J].China Fisheries,2017,(7):2.]
[21]韩杨.1949年以来中国海洋渔业资源治理与政策调整[J].中国农村经济,2018,(9):14-28.[Han Y.Marine fishery resources management and policy adjustment in China since 1949[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2018,(9):14-28.]
[22]罗亚娟.“高产”水产养殖模式及其社会生态后果[J].南京工业大学学报(社会科学版),2018,17(6):19-27.[Luo Y J.“Highyield”aquaculture mode and its social ecological influence[J].Journal of Nanjing Tech University(Social Science Edition),2018,17(6):19-27.]
[23]胡求光,王艳芬.我国水产品的消费特征及其影响因素分析[J].农业经济问题,2009,30(4):97-102.[Hu Q G,Wang Y F.The analysis of the characteristics and the factors of aquatic products consumption in China[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,2009,30(4):97-102.]
[24]张宽,邓鑫,沈倩岭,等.农业技术进步、农村劳动力转移与农民收入:基于农业劳动生产率的分组PVAR模型分析[J].农业技术经济,2017,(6):28-41.[Zhang K,Deng X,Shen Q L,et al.Agricultural technology progress,rural labor transfer and farmers'income:Analysis of PVAR model based on agricultural labor productivity[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2017,(6):28-41.]
[25]Roemer J E.Equality of Opportunity[M].Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1998.
[26]Zhang Y,Eriksson T.Inequality of opportunity and income inequality in nine Chinese provinces,1989-2006[J].China Economic Review,2010,21(4):607-616.
[27]Ferreira F H G,Gignoux J.The measurement of inequality of opportunity:Theory and an application to Latin America[J].Review of Income and Wealth,2011,57(4):622-657.
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1)“众院士专家积极建言献策‘十三五’渔业发展”http://www.fishfirst.cn/article-40255-1.html.
2)数据来源http://www.moa.gov.cn/govpublic/YYJ/201701/t20170123_5462599.htm。
3)由于《中国渔业统计年鉴》[2]中未分别对捕捞渔民和养殖渔民进行统计,为方便下文检验,本文利用捕捞量占水产品总产量之比乘以渔业从业总人数作为捕捞业从业人数的代理变量。
4)本文利用养殖产量占水产品总产量之比乘以渔业从业总人数作为养殖业从业人数的代理变量。
5)具体测算如下:根据中国农村居民家庭劳动力文化程度构成,分为不识字或者识字很少、小学、初中、高中、中专、大专及以上等6类,对应的受教育年限分别为1年、6年、9年、12年、12年和16年。
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