大用户直接交易合同执行风险评估
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摘要
目前我国正稳步推进电力市场改革,大用户直接交易作为其中重要的形式有着可再生能源大量参与、交易电量巨大、电源分布广、传输距离远等特点,其交易的可靠性对电力系统的稳定性便有了十分重要的影响,因而必须对供需两侧用户交易进行有效的风险评估,对风险较大的影响因素进行合理的管控。大用户直接交易涉及供需两侧及诸多可能存在的风险因素,运用层次分析法对进行评价,主要从自然风险、准入风险、信用风险、交易风险、结算风险5个方面构建风险评价指标体系,以及对应的17个二级评价指标,并将风险因素进行评级,确定各自权重并检验一致性,最后对严重风险进行重点防范。结果表明,层次分析法可以兼顾主客观因素,确定各评价指标相对权重,计算风险指标对各等级风险水平的隶属度,实现定性与定量分析相结合,使风险评估的结果更加科学准确。
Nowadays, China is steadily promoting the reform of the electricity market. Direct power purchase by large consumers, which has the characteristics of large participation of renewable energy and huge trading power, has a very important impact on the stability of the power system. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out an effective risk assessment method on the bilateral user transactions of supply and demand side, and to reasonably control therisk factors that have greater risk. Direct power purchase by large consumers involve both sides of supply and demand and many possible risk factors. The risk assessment index system was constructed from five aspects and the corresponding 17 second-level evaluation indexes were established as analytic hierarchy process(AHP) method to evaluate the risk. In addition, after rating the risk factors, the weights were determined and the consistency was verified. The results show that AHP can balance the subjective and objective factors and determine the relative weight of each evaluation index. It can also calculate the subordination degree of risk index to each level of risk level and achieve the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis so that the result of risk assessment is more scientific and accurate.
Nowadays, China is steadily promoting the reform of the electricity market. Direct power purchase by large consumers, which has the characteristics of large participation of renewable energy and huge trading power, has a very important impact on the stability of the power system. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out an effective risk assessment method on the bilateral user transactions of supply and demand side, and to reasonably control therisk factors that have greater risk. Direct power purchase by large consumers involve both sides of supply and demand and many possible risk factors. The risk assessment index system was constructed from five aspects and the corresponding 17 second-level evaluation indexes were established as analytic hierarchy process(AHP) method to evaluate the risk. In addition, after rating the risk factors, the weights were determined and the consistency was verified. The results show that AHP can balance the subjective and objective factors and determine the relative weight of each evaluation index. It can also calculate the subordination degree of risk index to each level of risk level and achieve the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis so that the result of risk assessment is more scientific and accurate.
引文
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[4]韩霞，郭易鑫，王晖南，等．基于AHP的电力运行信息安全管理风险评估的研究[J]．国外电子测量技术，2018,37(5):32-37.
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[7]曾鸣，梁周，居勇，等．基于AHP的供电企业服务策略效果评价[J]．技术经济与管理研究，2010(2):8-11.
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[9]于亚男，江全元，张维，等．大用户直购电市场风险评估设计及政策影响分析[J]．能源工程，2016(4):1-6.
[10] Saaty T L.How to make a decision:The analytic hierarchy process[J].Interfaces,1990,48(6):19-43.
[11]赵冬梅，张玉清，马建峰．网络安全的综合风险评估[J]．计算机科学，2004,31(7):66-69.
[12]王孝宁，何苗，何钦成．层次分析法判断矩阵的构成方法及比较[J]．中国卫生统计，2002,19(2):111-113.
[2]钟登华，张建设，曹广晶．基于AHP的工程项目风险分析方法[J]．天津大学学报(自然科学与工程技术版)，2002,35(2):162-166.
[3]梁智强，林丹生．基于电力系统的信息安全风险评估机制研究[J]．信息网络安全，2017(4):86-90.
[4]韩霞，郭易鑫，王晖南，等．基于AHP的电力运行信息安全管理风险评估的研究[J]．国外电子测量技术，2018,37(5):32-37.
[5]王林炎，张粒子，张凡，等．售电公司购售电业务决策与风险评估[J]．电力系统自动化，2018,42(1):47-54,143.
[6]于亚男．大用户直购电的交易模拟及风险分析方法研究[D]．杭州：浙江大学，2016.
[7]曾鸣，梁周，居勇，等．基于AHP的供电企业服务策略效果评价[J]．技术经济与管理研究，2010(2):8-11.
[8]冯义，李洪东，田廓，等．基于熵权和层次分析法的电力客户风险评估及其规避[J]．电力系统保护与控制，2007,35(24):66-70.
[9]于亚男，江全元，张维，等．大用户直购电市场风险评估设计及政策影响分析[J]．能源工程，2016(4):1-6.
[10] Saaty T L.How to make a decision:The analytic hierarchy process[J].Interfaces,1990,48(6):19-43.
[11]赵冬梅，张玉清，马建峰．网络安全的综合风险评估[J]．计算机科学，2004,31(7):66-69.
[12]王孝宁，何苗，何钦成．层次分析法判断矩阵的构成方法及比较[J]．中国卫生统计，2002,19(2):111-113.
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