大型浅水湖泊磷模型参数不确定性及敏感性分析
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摘要
以太湖作为大型浅水湖泊的代表,以EFDC模型为基础建立关于磷的沉积成岩模型,运用拉丁超立方抽样方法、普适似然不确定性分析方法和区域敏感性分析方法,对成岩模块中与磷迁移转化有关的16个参数进行敏感性分析.结果表明,太湖全湖区磷酸盐和总磷的时间空间分布都极不均匀,成岩模块参数的不确定性在磷酸盐和总磷的模拟方面都存在强烈影响.以上覆水磷酸盐为输出目标,"沉积物-水"界面遭受的风浪扰动在水深相对更浅的湖区更为直接,湖湾区水的流通性较差,利于沉积物中溶解态磷释放.以上覆水总磷为输出目标,湖心区颗粒态磷和溶解态有机磷的质量浓度受成岩模块参数不确定性的影响较大.敏感参数主要是动力特性与和氧相关的两类参数.对于大型浅水湖泊,底泥沉积成岩模块敏感参数的重要性不弱于水动力、水质模块,针对不同水质、底泥分布的水域,模拟磷元素时应注重敏感参数的取值率定.
Lake Taihu was chosen as a typical large shallow lake,and a diagenesis model of phosphorus was established based on environmental fluid dynamic code( EFDC). The uncertainty of the simulation results and the sensitivity of 16 parameters related to phosphorus migration and transformation in the diagenesis model were analyzed using Latin hypercube sampling( LHS),generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation( GLUE),and regionalized sensitivity analysis( RSA). The results showed that the temporal and spatial distribution of phosphate and total phosphorus in Lake Taihu was extremely uneven. Furthermore,the uncertainty of the diagenesis model had a strong influence on the simulation of phosphate and total phosphorus. For phosphate in the overlying,wind and wave disturbance at the‘sediment-water' interface was stronger in shallower water regions. The circulation of water in the bay area,where the dissolved oxygen content was low,was poor,which was conducive to the release of dissolved phosphorus in the sediment. For total phosphorus in the overlying water,the granular phosphorus and dissolved organic phosphorus contents in the central lake area were greatly affected by parameter uncertainties in the diagenesis model. The sensitive parameters mainly consisted of two kinds related to oxygen and dynamic characteristics,respectively. For large shallow lakes,the importance of parameter sensitivity in diagenesis models is no less than for hydrodynamic and water quality models. For large shallow lakes,the calibration of sensitive parameters should,therefore,be given attention when simulating the phosphorus content of areas with complicated water quality and sediment distributions.
Lake Taihu was chosen as a typical large shallow lake,and a diagenesis model of phosphorus was established based on environmental fluid dynamic code( EFDC). The uncertainty of the simulation results and the sensitivity of 16 parameters related to phosphorus migration and transformation in the diagenesis model were analyzed using Latin hypercube sampling( LHS),generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation( GLUE),and regionalized sensitivity analysis( RSA). The results showed that the temporal and spatial distribution of phosphate and total phosphorus in Lake Taihu was extremely uneven. Furthermore,the uncertainty of the diagenesis model had a strong influence on the simulation of phosphate and total phosphorus. For phosphate in the overlying,wind and wave disturbance at the‘sediment-water' interface was stronger in shallower water regions. The circulation of water in the bay area,where the dissolved oxygen content was low,was poor,which was conducive to the release of dissolved phosphorus in the sediment. For total phosphorus in the overlying water,the granular phosphorus and dissolved organic phosphorus contents in the central lake area were greatly affected by parameter uncertainties in the diagenesis model. The sensitive parameters mainly consisted of two kinds related to oxygen and dynamic characteristics,respectively. For large shallow lakes,the importance of parameter sensitivity in diagenesis models is no less than for hydrodynamic and water quality models. For large shallow lakes,the calibration of sensitive parameters should,therefore,be given attention when simulating the phosphorus content of areas with complicated water quality and sediment distributions.
引文
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[20]丰卫华,王志富,张荣保,等.宁德海域表层沉积物氧化还原环境特征及其影响因素[J].海洋环境科学,2016,35(6):882-887,907.Feng W H,Wang Z F,Zhang R B,et al. The environment characteristics of redox in the surface sediments of Ningde coastal sea area in relation to influence factors[J]. Marine Environmental Science,2016,35(6):882-887,907.
[21] Hietanen S,Lukkari K. Effects of short-term anoxia on benthic denitrification,nutrient fluxes and phosphorus forms in coastal Baltic sediment[J]. Aquatic Microbial Ecology,2007,49(3):293-302.
[22]李一平,邱利,唐春燕,等.湖泊水动力模型外部输入条件不确定性和敏感性分析[J].中国环境科学,2014,34(2):410-416.Li Y P,Qiu L,Tang C Y,et al. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of input conditions in large shallow lake hydrodynamic model[J]. China Environmental Science,2014,34(2):410-416.
[23]余茂蕾,洪国喜,朱广伟,等.风场对太湖梅梁湾水华及营养盐空间分布的影响[J].环境科学,2019,40(8):3519-3529.Yu M L,Hong G X,Zhu G W,et al. Wind field influence on spatial distribution of cyanobacterial blooms and nutrients in Meiliang Bay of Lake Taihu,China[J]. Environmental Science,2019,40(8):3519-3529.
[24]许遐祯,陶蓉茵,赵巧华,等.大型浅水湖泊太湖波浪特征及其对风场的敏感性分析[J].湖泊科学,2013,25(1):55-64.Xu X Z,Tao R Y,Zhao Q H,et al. Wave characteristics and sensitivity analysis of the wind field in a large shallow lake—Lake Taihu[J]. Journal of Lake Sciences,2013,25(1):55-64.
[25]张红,陈敬安,王敬富,等.贵州红枫湖底泥磷释放的模拟实验研究[J].地球与环境,2015,43(2):243-251.Zhang H,Chen J A,Wang J F,et al. A simulation study on the release of phosphorus from sediments in Lake Hongfeng,Guizhou Province,China[J]. Earth and Environment,2015,43(2):243-251.
[2]杨旭,李畅游,李文宝,等.达里诺尔湖磷赋存特征及底泥释放影响因素[J].水土保持通报,2018,38(4):92-97,102.Yang X,Li C Y,Li W B,et al. Characteristics of phosphorus occurrence and influence factors of sediment release in Dali-Nor Lake[J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,38(4):92-97,102.
[3]张永生,李海英,任家盈,等.三峡库区大宁河沉积物营养盐时空分布及其与叶绿素的相关性分析[J].环境科学,2015,36(11):4021-4031.Zhang Y S,Li H Y,Ren J Y,et al. Temporal and spatial distribution of nutrients in Daning river sediments and their correlations with chlorophyll in the Three Gorges Reservoir area[J]. Environmental Science,2015,36(11):4021-4031.
[4] Boudreau B P. The mathematics of early diagenesis:from worms to waves[J]. Reviews of Geophysics,2000,38(3):389-416.
[5] Colborne S F,Maguire T J,Mayer B,et al. Water and sediment as sources of phosphate in aquatic ecosystems:the Detroit River and its role in the Laurentian Great Lakes[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2019,647:1594-1603.
[6] Lai J,Wang G W,Wang S,et al. Review of diagenetic facies in tight sandstones:diagenesis,diagenetic minerals,and prediction via well logs[J]. Earth-Science Reviews,2018,185:234-258.
[7] Niespolo E M,Sharp W D,Kirch P V.230Th dating of coral abraders from stratified deposits at Tangatatau Rockshelter,Mangaia, Cook Islands:implications for building precise chronologies in Polynesia[J]. Journal of Archaeological Science,2019,101:21-33.
[8] Paraska D W,Hipsey M R,Salmon S U. Sediment diagenesis models:review of approaches,challenges and opportunities[J].Environmental Modelling&Software,2014,61:297-325.
[9] Vinon-Leite B,Casenave C. Modelling eutrophication in lake ecosystems:a review[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2019,651:2985-3001.
[10]曾野,朱金格,王艳平,等.东太湖水温变化与水-沉积物界面热通量初探[J].湖泊科学,2018,30(6):1599-1609.Zeng Y, Zhu J G, Wang Y P, et al. Changes of water temperature and heat flux at water-sediment interface,East Lake Taihu[J]. Journal of Lake Sciences,2018,30(6):1599-1609.
[11]秦伯强,朱广伟,张路,等.大型浅水湖泊沉积物内源营养盐释放模式及其估算方法———以太湖为例[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,2005,35(S2):33-44.Qin B Q,Zhu G W,Zhang L,et al. Estimation of internal nutrient release in large shallow Lake Taihu,China[J]. Science in China Series D,2006,49(S1):38-50.
[12] Li Y P,Tang C Y,Zhu J T,et al. Parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic processes for a large shallow freshwater lake[J]. Hydrological Sciences Journal,2015,60(6):1078-1095.
[13]马荣华,孔繁翔,段洪涛,等.基于卫星遥感的太湖蓝藻水华时空分布规律认识[J].湖泊科学,2008,20(6):687-694.Ma R H, Kong F X, Duan H T, et al. Spatio-temporal distribution of cyanobacteria blooms based on satellite imageries in Lake Taihu,China[J]. Journal of Lake Sciences,2008,20(6):687-694.
[14] Jiang L,Li Y P,Zhao X,et al. Parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of water quality model in Lake Taihu,China[J]. Ecological Modelling,2018,375:1-12.
[15] Testa J M,Brady D C,Di Toro D M,et al. Sediment flux modeling:Simulating nitrogen,phosphorus, and silica cycles[J]. Estuarine,Coastal and Shelf Science,2013,131:245-263.
[16]郝文超,王从锋,杨正健,等.氧化还原循环过程中沉积物磷的形态及迁移转化规律[J].环境科学,2019,40(2):640-648.Hao W C, Wang C F, Yang Z J, et al. Speciation and transformation of phosphorus in sediments during the redox cycle[J]. Environmental Science,2019,40(2):640-648.
[17]吕伟伟,姚昕,张保华,等.基于地统计学分析的太湖颗粒态和溶解态氮、磷营养盐时空分布特征及来源分析[J].环境科学,2019,40(2):590-602.LüW W, Yao X, Zhang B H, et al. Temporal-spatial distribution of nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients in Lake Taihu based on geostatistical analysis[J]. Environmental Science,2019,40(2):590-602.
[18] Akomeah E,Lindenschmidt K E. Seasonal variation in sediment oxygen demand in a northern chained river-lake system[J].Water,2017,9(4):254.
[19]杨赵.湖泊沉积物中氮磷源—汇现象影响因素研究进展[J].环境科学导刊,2017,36(S1):16-19,29.Yang Z. Advances in factors influencing release of nitrogen and phosphorus in sediments[J]. Environmental Science Survey,2017,36(S1):16-19,29.
[20]丰卫华,王志富,张荣保,等.宁德海域表层沉积物氧化还原环境特征及其影响因素[J].海洋环境科学,2016,35(6):882-887,907.Feng W H,Wang Z F,Zhang R B,et al. The environment characteristics of redox in the surface sediments of Ningde coastal sea area in relation to influence factors[J]. Marine Environmental Science,2016,35(6):882-887,907.
[21] Hietanen S,Lukkari K. Effects of short-term anoxia on benthic denitrification,nutrient fluxes and phosphorus forms in coastal Baltic sediment[J]. Aquatic Microbial Ecology,2007,49(3):293-302.
[22]李一平,邱利,唐春燕,等.湖泊水动力模型外部输入条件不确定性和敏感性分析[J].中国环境科学,2014,34(2):410-416.Li Y P,Qiu L,Tang C Y,et al. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of input conditions in large shallow lake hydrodynamic model[J]. China Environmental Science,2014,34(2):410-416.
[23]余茂蕾,洪国喜,朱广伟,等.风场对太湖梅梁湾水华及营养盐空间分布的影响[J].环境科学,2019,40(8):3519-3529.Yu M L,Hong G X,Zhu G W,et al. Wind field influence on spatial distribution of cyanobacterial blooms and nutrients in Meiliang Bay of Lake Taihu,China[J]. Environmental Science,2019,40(8):3519-3529.
[24]许遐祯,陶蓉茵,赵巧华,等.大型浅水湖泊太湖波浪特征及其对风场的敏感性分析[J].湖泊科学,2013,25(1):55-64.Xu X Z,Tao R Y,Zhao Q H,et al. Wave characteristics and sensitivity analysis of the wind field in a large shallow lake—Lake Taihu[J]. Journal of Lake Sciences,2013,25(1):55-64.
[25]张红,陈敬安,王敬富,等.贵州红枫湖底泥磷释放的模拟实验研究[J].地球与环境,2015,43(2):243-251.Zhang H,Chen J A,Wang J F,et al. A simulation study on the release of phosphorus from sediments in Lake Hongfeng,Guizhou Province,China[J]. Earth and Environment,2015,43(2):243-251.
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