基于MaxEnt模型预测极北海带在我国黄渤海的适生情况
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摘要
我国黄渤海区域的自然藻场存在不同程度的退化,建立人工藻场是制止海底荒漠化、恢复海底植被和建设海洋牧场的重要手段。本研究模拟极北海带(Laminaria hyperborea)在我国黄渤海区域的适生情况,使用MaxEnt生态位预测方法,针对影响极北海带分部的21项关键水质及水文条件以及在原产地的分布情况,建立我国黄渤海海域生态位分布模型,划分相应的适生区域,并通过刀切法筛选对模型贡献度较大的环境因子,逐一分析其对极北海带适生性的影响。结果显示,在筛选出的9项对模型贡献度较大的环境因子中,温度与光照强度对极北海带分布的影响最大。极北海带在温度7℃～18℃范围、光强不超过52 E/(m2·d)的区间有较大的适生概率;氮、磷浓度对预测结果也有一定影响,但天然海水中的氮、磷浓度不足以成为极北海带分布的限制因子。总体来看,黄渤海区域有1.67%海域为中适生区,主要集中在辽东半岛东岸长海县附近海域;山东半岛东部、北部,渤海西北部有一定的低适生范围,占总海域面积的5.12%;非适生区和边缘适生区占海域总面积的88.51%和4.70%。本研究表明,辽东半岛东岸长海县附近海域是建立极北海带藻场的理想区域。
Ecological niche model MaxEnt was applied to estimate the suitability probability of Laminaria hyperborea in the Bohai and Huanghai Seas of China. In this study, the native occurrence data of L. hyperborea and 21 key environmental variables were selected to build the ecological niche model and then redefined into occurrence zones by suitability probabilities. The contribution of each environmental variable to the model was estimated using JackKnifing techniques. The results showed that the contributions from temperature and light intensity to the spreading of L. hyperborea dominated all considered environmental parameters. In the forecasted areas, suitable probabilities were significant when the temperatures range from 7~18℃ and the light intensities were below 52 E/(m~2·d). Although the concentrations of N and P contributed to the prediction model, they would barely reach the limitation value for L. hyperborea in natural sea water. Additionally, our results showed that 1.67% of the entire forecasted area had a medium distribution probability, which was mainly limited within Changhai Town of Dalian City. Of the total area, 5.12% was low occurrence probability zones, mainly spreading along the east to the Liaodong Peninsula, north to the Shandong Peninsula, and northwest of the Bohai Sea. Furthermore, unbefitting and marginal suitable distribution areas represent 88.51% and 4.70% of Chinese coast, respectively. The results indicate that Changhai Town could be an ideal location for the construction of L. hyperborea beds.
Ecological niche model MaxEnt was applied to estimate the suitability probability of Laminaria hyperborea in the Bohai and Huanghai Seas of China. In this study, the native occurrence data of L. hyperborea and 21 key environmental variables were selected to build the ecological niche model and then redefined into occurrence zones by suitability probabilities. The contribution of each environmental variable to the model was estimated using JackKnifing techniques. The results showed that the contributions from temperature and light intensity to the spreading of L. hyperborea dominated all considered environmental parameters. In the forecasted areas, suitable probabilities were significant when the temperatures range from 7~18℃ and the light intensities were below 52 E/(m~2·d). Although the concentrations of N and P contributed to the prediction model, they would barely reach the limitation value for L. hyperborea in natural sea water. Additionally, our results showed that 1.67% of the entire forecasted area had a medium distribution probability, which was mainly limited within Changhai Town of Dalian City. Of the total area, 5.12% was low occurrence probability zones, mainly spreading along the east to the Liaodong Peninsula, north to the Shandong Peninsula, and northwest of the Bohai Sea. Furthermore, unbefitting and marginal suitable distribution areas represent 88.51% and 4.70% of Chinese coast, respectively. The results indicate that Changhai Town could be an ideal location for the construction of L. hyperborea beds.
引文
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Luning K.Growth strategies of three Laminaria species(Phaeophyceae)inhabiting different depth zones in the sublittoral region of Helgoland(North Sea).Marine Ecology,1979(1):195-207
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Yuan XN,Liang ZL,LüZB,et al.The effects of ecological restoration of the artificial reef in Weihai offshore.Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2017,39(10):54-64[袁小楠,梁振林,吕振波,等.威海近岸人工鱼礁布设对生物资源恢复效果.海洋学报,2017,39(10):54-64]
Zeng CK,Pan ZZ,Zhou BC.Comparative photosynthetic studies on benthic seaweedsⅡ.The effect of light intensity on photosynthesis of intertidal brown algae.Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,1981,12(3):254-257[曾呈奎,潘忠正,周百成.底栖海藻比较光合作用研究Ⅱ.潮间带褐藻的光合作用与光强的关系.海洋与湖沼,1981,12(3):254-257]
Zeng H,Huang GS,Lin W,et al.Prediction of potential geographic distribution of Microcyclus ulei in the world using MaxEnt.Plant Protection,2008,34(3):88-92[曾辉,黄冠胜,林伟,等.利用Max Ent预测橡胶南美叶疫病菌在全球的潜在地理分布.植物保护,2008,34(3):88-92]
Zhang F,Chen SQ,Wang LL,et al.Study on ecological suitability regionalization of Corni fructus based on MaxEnt and Arc GIS model.China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica,2017,42(16):3078-3083[张飞,陈随清,王利丽,等.基于Max Ent和Arc GIS的山茱萸生态适宜性区划研究.中国中药杂志,2017,42(16):3078-3083]
Zhang L,Zhang XM,Wu ZX,et al.Effect of environment on benthic macro-algal communities of artificial reefs in Lidao,Rongcheng.Journal of Fishery Sciences of China,2012,19(1):116-125[张磊,张秀梅,吴忠鑫,等.荣成俚岛人工鱼礁区大型底栖藻类群落及其与环境因子的关系.中国水产科学,2012,19(1):116-125]
Holdt SL,Kraan S.Bioactive compounds in seaweed:Functional food applications and legislation.Journal of Applied Phycology,2011,23(3):543-597
Jiao L,Chang G,Yong C,et al.Progress on research and construction of marine ranching along the coast of Shandong Province of China.Journal of Shipping and Ocean Engineering,2014,4:338-347
Joanna MK.The biology of Laminaria hyperborea X.the effect of depth on some populations.Journal of the Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom,1997,57(3):587-607
Ke MJ,Wang HB,Yang Z,et al.Prediction of the potential distribution areas of brown-banded cockroach in China based on MaxEnt model.Port Health Control,2017,22(2):59-63[柯明剑,汪海波,杨泽,等.用最大熵生态位模型预测入侵媒介生物褐带皮蠊在中国的潜在分布区.口岸卫生控制,2017,22(2):59-63]
Largo DB,Ohno M,Critchley AT.Seasonal changes in the growth and reproduction of Sargassum polycystum C.Ag.and Sargassum siliquosum J.Ag.(Sargassaceae,Fucales)from Liloan,Cebu,in Central Philippines.Sorui,1994,42(1):53-61
Luning K.Growth strategies of three Laminaria species(Phaeophyceae)inhabiting different depth zones in the sublittoral region of Helgoland(North Sea).Marine Ecology,1979(1):195-207
Martín-García,L,Herrera R,Moro-Abad L,et al.Predicting the potential habitat of the harmful cyanobacteria:Ecological niche model of invasive seaweeds.Harmful Algae,2014,34:76-86
Peter S,Kenneth DB,Michele SS,et al.The seasonal variation in the chemical composition of the kelp species Laminaria digitata,Laminaria hyperborea,Saccharina latissima and Alaria esculenta.Journal of Applied Phycology,2015,27(1):363-373
Phillips SJ,Anderson RP,Schapire RE.Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions.Ecological Modelling,2006,190(3-4):231-259
Phillips SJ,Dudík M.Modeling of species distributions with Maxent:New extensions and a comprehensive evaluation.Ecography,2008,31(2):161-175
Qi GJ,Gao Y,Huang DC,et al.Historical invasion,expansion process and the potential geographic distributions for the rice water weevil,Lissorhoptrus oryzophilus in China based on Max Ent.Acta Phytophylacica Sinica,2012,39(2):129-136[齐国君,高燕,黄德超,等.基于MaxEnt的稻水象甲在中国的入侵扩散动态及适生性分析.植物保护学报,2012,39(2):129-136]
Seaman W.Artificial habitats and the restoration of degraded marine ecosystems and fisheries.Hydrobiologia,2007,580(1):143-155
Steneck RS,Graham BJ,Bourque D,et al.Kelp forest ecosystems:Biodiversity,stability,resilience and future.Environment Conservation,2002,29:436-459
Tu Z,Zhang XM,Zhang PD,et al.Artificial fish reef near Lidao Island in Rongcheng-Early assessment on resource and environment in sea area for artificial fish reef.Modern Fisheries Information,2007,22(12):3-8[涂忠,张秀梅,张沛东,等.荣成俚岛人工鱼礁建设项目--人工鱼礁投放海域资源环境状况前期评价.现代渔业信息,2007,22(12):3-8]
Tu Z,Zhang XM,Zhang PD,Huang GQ,et al.Artificial reef project in Lidao,RongchengⅡ.Assessment on the effect of biological resource enhancement by the artificial reef.Modern Fisheries Information,2009,24(11):16-20[涂忠,张秀梅,张沛东,等.荣成俚岛人工鱼礁建设项目Ⅱ.人工鱼礁养护生物资源效果的评价.现代渔业信息,2009,24(11):16-20]
Wang YS,Xie BY,Wan FH,et al.Application of ROC curve analysis in evaluating the performance of alien species’potential distribution models.Biodiversity Science,2007,15(4):365-372[王运生,谢丙炎,万方浩,等.ROC曲线分析在评价入侵物种分布模型中的应用.生物多样性杂志,2007,15(4):365-372]
Xu Q,Liu SB,Xu M,et al.Preliminary study on sites selection of marine ranching-taking Zhoushan as an example.Fishery Modernization,2011,38(2):27-31[许强,刘舜斌,许敏,等.海洋牧场建设选址的初步研究:以舟山为例.渔业现代化,2011,38(2):27-31]
Yuan XN,Liang ZL,LüZB,et al.The effects of ecological restoration of the artificial reef in Weihai offshore.Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2017,39(10):54-64[袁小楠,梁振林,吕振波,等.威海近岸人工鱼礁布设对生物资源恢复效果.海洋学报,2017,39(10):54-64]
Zeng CK,Pan ZZ,Zhou BC.Comparative photosynthetic studies on benthic seaweedsⅡ.The effect of light intensity on photosynthesis of intertidal brown algae.Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,1981,12(3):254-257[曾呈奎,潘忠正,周百成.底栖海藻比较光合作用研究Ⅱ.潮间带褐藻的光合作用与光强的关系.海洋与湖沼,1981,12(3):254-257]
Zeng H,Huang GS,Lin W,et al.Prediction of potential geographic distribution of Microcyclus ulei in the world using MaxEnt.Plant Protection,2008,34(3):88-92[曾辉,黄冠胜,林伟,等.利用Max Ent预测橡胶南美叶疫病菌在全球的潜在地理分布.植物保护,2008,34(3):88-92]
Zhang F,Chen SQ,Wang LL,et al.Study on ecological suitability regionalization of Corni fructus based on MaxEnt and Arc GIS model.China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica,2017,42(16):3078-3083[张飞,陈随清,王利丽,等.基于Max Ent和Arc GIS的山茱萸生态适宜性区划研究.中国中药杂志,2017,42(16):3078-3083]
Zhang L,Zhang XM,Wu ZX,et al.Effect of environment on benthic macro-algal communities of artificial reefs in Lidao,Rongcheng.Journal of Fishery Sciences of China,2012,19(1):116-125[张磊,张秀梅,吴忠鑫,等.荣成俚岛人工鱼礁区大型底栖藻类群落及其与环境因子的关系.中国水产科学,2012,19(1):116-125]
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