中国产业部门碳排放传导机制研究
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摘要
以2005—2015年为研究期,借助投入产出模型和结构路径分析方法,分析中国产业部门间碳排放的传导机制,厘清产业部门碳排放的分布特征,解析关键传递路径及其动态变化。分析表明:(1)多数产业部门的引致碳排放强度远高于其直接碳排放强度,产业部门间碳转移是产业部门碳排放的主要组成部分。(2)电力、热力业,煤炭开采和洗选业等能源型产业碳排放的主导层级在第0层;建筑业、服务业等中间投入产品较多的产业碳排放主导层级在第1、2层。(3)固定资本形成→建筑业→(相关产业部门)是最主要的关键路径传递类型,2010、2015年城镇居民消费→(相关产业部门)逐渐上升为第二大关键路径传递类型。(4)未来应加大能源供应端的节能减排控制力度;应利用产业部门碳排放分布的差异化特征制定不同的针对性措施;以关键产业链条为抓手,针对上下游各产业部门进行综合治理。
Taking 2005-2015 as the research period,the input-output method and structure path analysis were used to analysis the transmission mechanism among industrial sectors in China.The distribution characteristics and transmission process of carbon emission and their dynamic development were investigated.The results showed that:(1)the induced carbon emission intensities were much higher than the direct carbon emission intensities in most induestries.Inter-sector carbon transfer was the main component of carbon emissions.(2)The leading level of the energy type industries such as electric power and thermal industry,coal mining and washing industry were in the zeroth layer.While most industrial sectors with more intermediate input and output were at the first,second level,such as construction and service industries.(3)The path type(capital formation"construction"(related industrial sectors))was identified as the main contributors of carbon emissions.In 2010 and 2015,the path type(urban consumption"(related industrial sectors))has been the second largest critical route type.(4)In the future,the emission reduction control of the energy supply side should be strengthened;different targeted measures should be formulated by using the characteristics of sector carbon emission;and taking the key industry chain as the grasp,comprehensive management of the industrial chain sector should be carried out.
Taking 2005-2015 as the research period,the input-output method and structure path analysis were used to analysis the transmission mechanism among industrial sectors in China.The distribution characteristics and transmission process of carbon emission and their dynamic development were investigated.The results showed that:(1)the induced carbon emission intensities were much higher than the direct carbon emission intensities in most induestries.Inter-sector carbon transfer was the main component of carbon emissions.(2)The leading level of the energy type industries such as electric power and thermal industry,coal mining and washing industry were in the zeroth layer.While most industrial sectors with more intermediate input and output were at the first,second level,such as construction and service industries.(3)The path type(capital formation"construction"(related industrial sectors))was identified as the main contributors of carbon emissions.In 2010 and 2015,the path type(urban consumption"(related industrial sectors))has been the second largest critical route type.(4)In the future,the emission reduction control of the energy supply side should be strengthened;different targeted measures should be formulated by using the characteristics of sector carbon emission;and taking the key industry chain as the grasp,comprehensive management of the industrial chain sector should be carried out.
引文
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[2] YI B W,XU J H,FAN Y.Determining factors and diverse scenarios of CO2emissions intensity reduction to achieve the 40-45%target by 2020in China-a historical and prospective analysis for the period 2005-2020[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2016,122:87-101.
[3]赵巧芝，闫庆友．基于投入产出的中国行业碳排放及减排效果模拟[J]．自然资源学报，2017,32(9):1528-1541.
[4] ZHANG C,ADADON L D,MO H,et al.Water-carbon tradeoff in China’s coal power industry[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2014,48(19):11082-11089.
[5]杨顺顺．中国工业部门碳排放转移评价及预测研究[J]．中国工业经济，2015(6).
[6]王丽萍，刘明浩．基于投入产出法的中国物流业碳排放测算及影响因素研究[J]．资源科学，2018,40(1):195-206.
[7]马金玲，刘永红，李丽，等．基于主成分分析法的城市客运交通碳排放影响因素研究[J]．环境污染与防治，2018,40(10):1188-1192,1202.
[8]高群，王锋．基于最终需求视角的中国碳排放分析[J]．统计与信息论坛，2013,28(11):66-74.
[9] FENG K,DAVIS S J,SUN L,et al.Outsourcing CO2 within China[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2013,110(28):11654-11659.
[10] WAN Y,YANG L I,HOU X.Comparative research on the structure of Chinese carbon emissions between 2007and 2012based on EIO-LCA method[J].Ecological Economy,2017,33(9):21-25.
[11]钱明霞，路正南，王健．基于假设抽取法的产业部门碳排放关联分析[J]．中国人口·资源与环境，2013,23(9):34-41.
[12]钱明霞，路正南，王健．产业部门碳排放波及效应分析[J]．中国人口·资源与环境，2014,24(12):82-88.
[13] HONG J K,SHEN Q P,XUE F.A multi-regional structural path analysis of the energy supply chain in China’s construction industry[J].Energy Policy,2016,92:56-68.
[14] LENZEN M,MORAN D,KANEMOTO K,et al.International trade drives biodiversity threats in developing nations[J].Nature,2012,486(7401):109-112.
[15] KANEMOTO K,MORAN D,LENZEN M,et al.International trade undermines national emission reduction targets:new evidence from air pollution[J].Global Environmental Change,2014,24(1):52-59.
[16] LLOP M,PONCE ALIFONSO X.Identifying the role of final consumption in structural path analysis:an application to water uses[J].Ecological Economics,2015,109:203-210.
[17] MENG J,LIU J,XU Y,et al.Tracing primary PM2.5emissions via Chinese supply chains[J].Environmental Research Letters,2015,10(5):054005.
[18] ZHANG B,QU X,MENG J,et al.Identifying primary energy requirements in structural path analysis:a case study of China2012[J].Applied Energy,2017,191:425-435.
[19] GUAN D,SU X,ZHANG Q,et al.The socioeconomic drivers of China’s primary PM2.5emissions[J].Environmental Research Letters,2014,9(2):024010.
[20] DEFOURNY J,THORBECKE E.Structural path analysis and multiplier decomposition within a social accounting matrix framework[J].Economic Journal,1984,94(373):111-136.
[21] YANG Z,DONG W,XIU J,et al.Structural path analysis of fossil fuel based CO2emissions:a case study for China[J].Plos One,2015,10(9):e0135727.
[22] LENZEN M.Structural path analysis of ecosystem networks[J].Ecological Modelling,2007,200(3/4):334-342.
[23] JOSE M,ROCIO R,MONUEL O.Main drivers of changes in CO2emissions in the Spanish economy:a structural decomposition analysis[J].Energy Policy,2016,89:150-159.
[24] GUAN D,PETERS G P,WEBER C L,et al.Journey to world top emitter:an analysis of the driving forces of China’s recent CO2emissions surge[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2009,36(4):e036540.
[25] EGGLESTON H S,BUENDIA L,MIWA K,et al.IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories 2006[M]London:Cambridge University Press,2006.
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