中国农业与工程机械尾气减排控制措施的费效分析
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摘要
移动源尾气排放已成为我国空气污染的主要来源之一,相比于道路移动源来说,非道路移动源尾气排放的减排控制工作仍处于初级阶段。本研究就非道路移动源尾气减排控制的三种主要措施——整车淘汰、发动机更换以及发动机维修,对中国非道路工程和农业机械进行费效分析,探讨经济可行的控制途径。研究假设农业和工程机械的使用年限分别为15年和10年,同时假设采取减排措施后所有机械均达到国IV排放标准。研究表明,采取减排措施后,农业机械每年可减排NOx 40万～45万t,但PM污染物减排效益不明显;工程机械每年可减排NOx约52万t,且PM污染物每年可减排量约16万t,但费用可高达2000亿～25 000亿元,且不同措施的差别巨大,以整车淘汰费用最高。多数农业机械发动机维修所需费用高于发动机更换,相反,工程机械发动机更换所需费用高于发动机维修。因此,在采用减排措施和制定政策时,需要根据实际情况进行调整。对农业机械,采用发动机更换的减排方式更经济;对工程机械,采用发动机维修的减排措施更实惠。
Emissions from mobile sources have become one of the key contributors to air pollution in China. Compared to on-road equipment,emissions control for non-road equipment is still at its early stages. The objective of this study is to evaluate three different emission control measures for agricultural and industrial equipment using cost-benefit analysis,including turn-over,replacement,and retrofit. A useful life of 15 and 10 years was assumed for agricultural and industrial equipment,respectively in this study. It was also assumed that all equipment would meet the National IV emission standards after any of the emission control measures was used. The results showed that for NOx,a reduction of approximately 400,000-450,000 tons and 520,000 tons can be achieved for agricultural and industrial equipment,respectively. For PM,since the current emissions level for agricultural equipment is similar to the National IV standards,the reduction is limited. Contrastingly,a reduction of 160,000 tons can be achieved for industrial equipment. The cost for such achievement ranged from 0.2-2.5 trillion RMB depending on control measures with turn-over being the most expensive option. The most cost-effective option for emission control varies by equipment type. For agricultural equipment,the favorable choice is replacement while retrofit is the best choice for industrial equipment.
Emissions from mobile sources have become one of the key contributors to air pollution in China. Compared to on-road equipment,emissions control for non-road equipment is still at its early stages. The objective of this study is to evaluate three different emission control measures for agricultural and industrial equipment using cost-benefit analysis,including turn-over,replacement,and retrofit. A useful life of 15 and 10 years was assumed for agricultural and industrial equipment,respectively in this study. It was also assumed that all equipment would meet the National IV emission standards after any of the emission control measures was used. The results showed that for NOx,a reduction of approximately 400,000-450,000 tons and 520,000 tons can be achieved for agricultural and industrial equipment,respectively. For PM,since the current emissions level for agricultural equipment is similar to the National IV standards,the reduction is limited. Contrastingly,a reduction of 160,000 tons can be achieved for industrial equipment. The cost for such achievement ranged from 0.2-2.5 trillion RMB depending on control measures with turn-over being the most expensive option. The most cost-effective option for emission control varies by equipment type. For agricultural equipment,the favorable choice is replacement while retrofit is the best choice for industrial equipment.
引文
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[3]中国机械工业年鉴编辑委员会,中国工程机械工业协会.中国工程机械工业年鉴[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2016.
[4]殷小鸽.非道路移动源燃油品质改善对污染排放影响的成本效益分析[D].天津:南开大学,2010.
[5]张凯山,第宝锋,陈长虹,等.非道路机械细颗粒物排放清单和减排途径研究技术报告[R].环境保护部,2017.
[6]BéRGER T,BEAUMONT N J,PENDLETON L,et al.Incorporating ecosystem services in marine planning:The role of valuation[J].Marine policy,2014,46:161-170.
[7]XIA X Q,LI J G,TIAN H,et al.The construction and cost-benefit analysis of end-of-life vehicle disassembly plant:a typical case in China[J].Clean technologies and environmental policy,2016,18(8):2663-2675.
[8]WARD J,GOHLKE D,NEALER R.The importance of powertrain downsizing in a benefit-cost analysis of vehicle lightweighting[J]JOM,2017,69(6):1065-1070.
[9]U.S.Environmental Protection Agency.User’s Guide for the Final NONROAD2005 Model[M].EPA420-R-05-013.Washington,DC:USEPA.2005.
[10]California Air Resources Board.User’s Guide for OFFROAD2007.[M](accessed December 26,2015).2007.http://www.arb.cn.gov/msei/offroad2007-docs.htm.
[11]田振中,彭晗,薛海培.基于主成分和BP神经网络的汽车保有量预测[J].交通标准化,2008(10):173-175.
[12]何明,过秀成.BP神经网络主成分分析法在汽车保有量预测中的应用[J].交通与计算机,2007(4):96-99.
[13]张亭,薛伟莲.基于BP神经网络的机动车保有量预测模型[J].中国管理信息化,2014,17(3):110-111,112-112.
[14]张立毅,张立毅.神经网络盲均衡理论、算法与应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2013.
[15]黄孝平.基于遗传神经网络的倒立摆控制研究[D].桂林:桂林工学院,2007.
[16]樊守彬,聂磊,阚睿斌,等.基于燃油消耗的北京农用机械排放清单建立[J].安全与环境学报,2011,11(1):145-148.
[17]李东玲,吴烨,周昱,等.我国典型工程机械燃油消耗量及排放清单研究[J].环境科学,2012,33(2):518-524.
[18]鲍晓峰,丁焰,尹航,等.非道路移动污染源排放清单编制技术指南(试行)[S].北京:环境保护部,2014.
[19]国务院.“十三五”节能减排综合工作方案[J].中国建材,2017(3):42-53.
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