湘江干流水环境质量演变特征及其关键因素定量识别
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摘要
为科学有效地保护湘江流域水环境,定量识别湘江干流主要水质指标的驱动因素,该研究基于1990～2016年水质监测数据及沿岸永州-长沙五市社会经济发展指标,采用Mann-Kendall检验法分析湘江干流水环境演变趋势,通过逐步回归分析确定各地区各水质指标主要驱动因素。结果表明:湘江干流COD_(Mn)、Cd、As整体呈下降趋势,上游BOD_5呈下降趋势,上中游NH_3-N呈上升趋势,中游衡阳、株洲市重金属Cr~(6+)呈上升趋势,衡阳市TP呈上升趋势,中下游BOD_5呈上升趋势;定量追溯各水质指标影响因素得出工业污染是湘江干流重金属As、Cr~(6+)、Cd主要驱动因素,永衡株潭地区NH_3-N,衡阳市BOD_5、COD_(Mn)、TP及衡株潭地区BOD_5均以农业污染影响为主;发现产业结构调整对干流水环境有显著影响,建议在流域产业结构调整过程中加强转型升级。
In order to protect the water environment of Xiangjiang River scientifically and effectively, and quantitative identify the main driving factors of water quality. In this paper, the Mann-Kendall was used to analyze the water environment evolution trend of Xiangjiang river trunk stream, the stepwise regression analysis methods were used to determines the main driving factors of water quality indexes in different regions, which is based on water quality monitoring data from 1990 to 2016 and socio-economic development indicators of cities along the coast. The results show that COD_(Mn), Cd and As was downtrend, BOD_5 shows an downtrend in the upper reaches, the pollution of NH_3-N in the upper and middle reaches shows an upward trend,TP in Hengyang shows an upward trend, in the middle reaches of Hengyang and Zhuzhou regions, heavy metal Cr~(6+) shows an increasing trend, BOD_5 in the middle and lower reaches shows an increasing trend; It is concluded that industrial pollution is the main driving factor of heavy metals As, Cr~(6+) and Cd in Xiangjiang River trunk stream. NH_3-N in Yong-Heng-Zhu-Tan, BOD_5, COD_(Mn), TP in Hengyang and BOD_5 in Heng-Zhu-Tan are mainly affected by agricultural pollution; it is found that the industrial structure adjustment has a significant impact on the water environment, it is suggested to strengthen the transformation and upgrading in the process of industrial structure adjustment in the basin.
In order to protect the water environment of Xiangjiang River scientifically and effectively, and quantitative identify the main driving factors of water quality. In this paper, the Mann-Kendall was used to analyze the water environment evolution trend of Xiangjiang river trunk stream, the stepwise regression analysis methods were used to determines the main driving factors of water quality indexes in different regions, which is based on water quality monitoring data from 1990 to 2016 and socio-economic development indicators of cities along the coast. The results show that COD_(Mn), Cd and As was downtrend, BOD_5 shows an downtrend in the upper reaches, the pollution of NH_3-N in the upper and middle reaches shows an upward trend,TP in Hengyang shows an upward trend, in the middle reaches of Hengyang and Zhuzhou regions, heavy metal Cr~(6+) shows an increasing trend, BOD_5 in the middle and lower reaches shows an increasing trend; It is concluded that industrial pollution is the main driving factor of heavy metals As, Cr~(6+) and Cd in Xiangjiang River trunk stream. NH_3-N in Yong-Heng-Zhu-Tan, BOD_5, COD_(Mn), TP in Hengyang and BOD_5 in Heng-Zhu-Tan are mainly affected by agricultural pollution; it is found that the industrial structure adjustment has a significant impact on the water environment, it is suggested to strengthen the transformation and upgrading in the process of industrial structure adjustment in the basin.
引文
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[16] 朱琳,王雅南,韩美,等.污水河水质时空分布特征及污染成因的解析[J].环境科学学报,2018,38(6):765-772.ZHU L,WANG Y N,HAN M,et al.Spatio-temporal distribution of water quality and source identification of pollution in Wushui River Basin [J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2018,38(6):2150-2156.
[17] 简敏菲,简美锋,李玲玉,等.鄱阳湖典型湿地沉水植物的分布格局及其水环境影响因子[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(5):765-772.JIAN M F,JIAN M F,LI L Y,et al.Disteribution pattern of submerged plants in typical wetlands of Poyang Lake and its influencing factors of water environment[J].Resources and Enviroment in the Yangtze Basin,2015,24(5):765-772.
[18] 夏贵芳,朱宇,林李月,等.东部三大经济区域城市流动人口的多维度社会融入及其地区差异[J].地理科学进展,2018,37(3):373-384.XIA G F,ZHU Y ,LIN L Y,et al.Migrants’ multidimensional integration in cities and regional difference in the three major economic regions of China’s eastern coastal area[J].Progress in Geography,2018,37(3):373-384.
[19] 范雯.逐步回归分析在储层参数预测中的应用[J].西安科技大学学报,2014,34(3):55-61.FAN W.Application of stepwise regression analysis method in reservoir parameter prediction[J].Journal of XI’AN University of Science and Technology,2014,34(3):55-61.
[20] 唐启义,冯明光.DPS数据处理系统[M].北京:科学出版社,2002:636-644.TANG Q Y,FENG G M.Data Processing System[M].Beijing:Science Press,2002:636-644.
[21] 敖希琴,费久龙,陈家丽,等.基于多元统计的PM2.5分析与预测——以合肥地区为例[J].佳木斯大学学报(自然科学版),2018,36(01):96-99.AO X Q,FEI J L,CHEN J L,et al.Analysis and prediction of PM2.5 based on multivariate statistics:Taking Hefei area as an example[J].Journal of Jiamusi University(Natural Science Edition),2018,36(01):96-99.
[2] SINGH K P,MALIK A,SINHA S.Water quality assessment and apportionment of pollution sources of Gomti River(India)using multivariate statistical techniques:a case study[J].Analytical Chimica Acta,2005,538:355-374.
[3] 丁劲.渭河典型污染物的污染特征及驱动力分析[D].西安:西安理工大学,2016:64-76.DING J.The analysis of typical pollutants polluting characteristics in Weihe River and pollution Driving Force[D].XI’AN University of Techology,2016:64-76.
[4] 王艳分,倪兆奎,林日彭,等.洞庭湖水环境演变特征及关键影响因素识别[J].环境科学学报,2018,38(07):2554-2559.WANG Y F,NI Z K,LIN R P,et al.Evolution characteristics of the Dongting Lake water environment and revealing its key influent factors[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2018,38(07):2554-2559.
[5] 张婷,刘静玲,王雪梅.白洋淀水质时空变化及影响因子评价与分析[J].环境科学学报,2010,30(02):261-267.ZHANG T,LIU J L,WANG X M.Causal analysis of the spatial-temporal variation of water quality in Baiyangdian Lake[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2010,30(02):261-267.
[6] 李景保,卢承志,梁成军.湖南省水安全问题研究[J].水利学报,2003,7(7):52-63.LI J B ,LU C Z,LIANG C J.Study on water security problem in Hunan Province[J]Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2003,7(7):52-63.
[7] 孙树青,胡国华,王勇泽,等.湘江干流水环境健康风险评价[J].安全与环境学报,2006(02):12-15.SUN S Q,HU G H,WANG Z Y,et al.Water environment health risk assessment of Xiangjiang River[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2006(02):12-15.
[8] 陈咏淑,吴甫成,吕焕哲,等.近20年来湘江水质变化分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2004,13(5):508-512CHEN Y S,WU F C,LU H Z,et al.Analysis on the water quality changes in the Xiangjiang River from 1981to 2000[J].Resources and Enviroment in the Yangtze Basin,2004,13(5):508-512.
[9] 周召梅,李强.湖南省入河废污水对江河水质的影响分析[J].水资源保护,2003,3:44-46ZHOU Z M,LI Q .Impacts of wastewater discharge on water quality of river in Hunan Province[J].Water Resources Protection,2004,13(5):508-512.
[10] 邓文伟.湘江流域快速城市化过程中的生态环境效应分析[D].长沙:湖南师范大学,2008:35-37.DENG W W.Anysis on the effects of ecological environment in the course of fast urbanization in Xiangjiang River Basin[D].Changsha:Hunan Normal University,2008:35-37.
[11] 黄柳.湘江流域经济发展与环境污染关系研究[D].湘潭:湘潭大学,2012:21-22.HUAGN L.Research on the relationship beteeen economic development and environmental pollution of Xiangjiang Valley[D].Xiangtan :Xiangtan University,2012:21-22.
[12] 张棋.湖南省水环境时空变化及其影响因素研究[D].长沙:湖南大学,2008:5-24.ZHANG Q.Investigation on temporal-spatial change of water environment quality and its driving forces in Hunan Province[D].Changsha:Hunan University,2008:5-24.
[13] 刘叶叶,毛德华,杨家亮,等.1990-2016年湘江干流水质变化特征及影响因素分析[J].冰川冻土,2018,40(04):820-827.LIU Y Y,MAO D H,YANG J L,et al.Analysis on the water quality change characteristics and influencing factors of the Xiangjiang River mainstream from 1990 to2016[J].Journal of Glaciology and Ceocryology,2018,40(04):820-827.
[14] GERT KNUTSSON.Trends in the acidification of groundwater.groundwater qualty management[M].Proceedings of the GOM 93 conference held at Yallin,September 1993.LAHS Publ.1994:5-15.
[15] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1998:69-72.WEI F Y.Modern weather forecasting techniques and statistical diagnosis[M].Beijing:Meteorological Press,1999:69-72.
[16] 朱琳,王雅南,韩美,等.污水河水质时空分布特征及污染成因的解析[J].环境科学学报,2018,38(6):765-772.ZHU L,WANG Y N,HAN M,et al.Spatio-temporal distribution of water quality and source identification of pollution in Wushui River Basin [J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2018,38(6):2150-2156.
[17] 简敏菲,简美锋,李玲玉,等.鄱阳湖典型湿地沉水植物的分布格局及其水环境影响因子[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(5):765-772.JIAN M F,JIAN M F,LI L Y,et al.Disteribution pattern of submerged plants in typical wetlands of Poyang Lake and its influencing factors of water environment[J].Resources and Enviroment in the Yangtze Basin,2015,24(5):765-772.
[18] 夏贵芳,朱宇,林李月,等.东部三大经济区域城市流动人口的多维度社会融入及其地区差异[J].地理科学进展,2018,37(3):373-384.XIA G F,ZHU Y ,LIN L Y,et al.Migrants’ multidimensional integration in cities and regional difference in the three major economic regions of China’s eastern coastal area[J].Progress in Geography,2018,37(3):373-384.
[19] 范雯.逐步回归分析在储层参数预测中的应用[J].西安科技大学学报,2014,34(3):55-61.FAN W.Application of stepwise regression analysis method in reservoir parameter prediction[J].Journal of XI’AN University of Science and Technology,2014,34(3):55-61.
[20] 唐启义,冯明光.DPS数据处理系统[M].北京:科学出版社,2002:636-644.TANG Q Y,FENG G M.Data Processing System[M].Beijing:Science Press,2002:636-644.
[21] 敖希琴,费久龙,陈家丽,等.基于多元统计的PM2.5分析与预测——以合肥地区为例[J].佳木斯大学学报(自然科学版),2018,36(01):96-99.AO X Q,FEI J L,CHEN J L,et al.Analysis and prediction of PM2.5 based on multivariate statistics:Taking Hefei area as an example[J].Journal of Jiamusi University(Natural Science Edition),2018,36(01):96-99.
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