太原汛期短时强降水时空分布及影响因素
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摘要
应用6—9月太原7个国家气象观测站1980—2015年小时降水和月平均气温、2008—2015年太原63个区域站小时降水、以及ECMWF ERA-interim月平均再分析资料等,采用气候趋势系数、M-K检验、合成分析及显著性t检验等方法,分析太原短时强降水时空分布,探讨城市热岛强度变化及环流异常对太原短时强降水的影响。研究表明:近36年来太原汛期年均短时强降水日数为3.3天,具有明显的年代际变化;6—9月短时强降水呈现快速增加、迅速减少的特征,且以20～30 mm/h雨强为主;≥40 mm/h的强降水主要出现在7月上旬末到8月上旬;一日中短时强降水在16—17时最活跃。太原城区短时强降水明显多于北部山区,主要表现在7月。2008—2015年区域站观测发现短时强降水呈现6—7月迅速扩展到全市、8月向东部收缩、9月迅速减少并分散出现在东部的特征。近36年来太原汛期城市热岛强度显著增强、太原城市化主要向南扩张可能是城区南部短时强降水明显增多的影响因素。短时强降水偏多年7月,500 hPa上西西伯利亚为高脊区,贝加尔湖为槽区,华北大部位势高度偏低,冷空气偏强,且西太平洋副高比偏少年明显偏西,从而使太原对流有效位能明显偏大,造成太原短时强降水偏多发生;偏少年则相反。该研究可为短时强降水预报和研究、城市防灾减灾提供有益参考。
Based on the data of hourly precipitation and monthly average temperature from June to September of 7 national meteorological stations from 1980 to 2015 and hourly precipitation of 63 automatic weather stations(AWS) from 2008 to 2015, and the monthly average reanalysis data of ECMWF ERA-interim, the temporal-spatial distribution of short-time heavy rainfall of flood season in Taiyuan was analyzed, and the influences of the variation of urban heat island(UHI) intensity and the anomalies of circulation background were studied by using climatic trend parameter, M-K test, composite analysis and t-test methods. The results showed that the days of short-time heavy rainfall had obvious inter-decadal variation in recent 36 years with annual mean days of 3.3 d; the days of short-time heavy rainfall increased rapidly and decreased sharply from June to September with concentrated intensities mainly of 20-30 mm/h; the ≥ 40 mm/h heavy rain concentrated between the late of the first ten-day period of July and the first ten-day period of August; 16:00—17:00 was the most active period in a day for short-time heavy rainfall. There were more short-time heavy rainfalls in the urban area than that in the mountainous areas, mainly in July. The observation from the automatic weather stations in Taiyuan during 2008-2015 found that the short-time heavy rainfall in Taiyuan extended rapidly to all areas of Taiyuan from June to July, and in August shrunk to eastern areas, and in September decreased sharply and occurred dispersedly in eastern areas. The enhanced intensity of UHI in recent 36 years and the southward expansion of urbanization maybe the influential factors for the increase of short-time heavy rainfall in southern urban area in Taiyuan. In July of the more short-time heavy rainfall years,there was a ridge in west Sibarian, and a trough in Lack Baikal, the geopotential height was lower in north China on 500 hPa with stronger cold air, and the western pacific subtropical high leaned significantly to west compared with the less years, therefore the CAPE values were higher in Taiyua, then the short-time heavy rainfall occurred more frequently; The less years were just the opposite. This study can provide references for forecasting and research on shot-time heavy rainfall and urban disaster prevention and relief.
Based on the data of hourly precipitation and monthly average temperature from June to September of 7 national meteorological stations from 1980 to 2015 and hourly precipitation of 63 automatic weather stations(AWS) from 2008 to 2015, and the monthly average reanalysis data of ECMWF ERA-interim, the temporal-spatial distribution of short-time heavy rainfall of flood season in Taiyuan was analyzed, and the influences of the variation of urban heat island(UHI) intensity and the anomalies of circulation background were studied by using climatic trend parameter, M-K test, composite analysis and t-test methods. The results showed that the days of short-time heavy rainfall had obvious inter-decadal variation in recent 36 years with annual mean days of 3.3 d; the days of short-time heavy rainfall increased rapidly and decreased sharply from June to September with concentrated intensities mainly of 20-30 mm/h; the ≥ 40 mm/h heavy rain concentrated between the late of the first ten-day period of July and the first ten-day period of August; 16:00—17:00 was the most active period in a day for short-time heavy rainfall. There were more short-time heavy rainfalls in the urban area than that in the mountainous areas, mainly in July. The observation from the automatic weather stations in Taiyuan during 2008-2015 found that the short-time heavy rainfall in Taiyuan extended rapidly to all areas of Taiyuan from June to July, and in August shrunk to eastern areas, and in September decreased sharply and occurred dispersedly in eastern areas. The enhanced intensity of UHI in recent 36 years and the southward expansion of urbanization maybe the influential factors for the increase of short-time heavy rainfall in southern urban area in Taiyuan. In July of the more short-time heavy rainfall years,there was a ridge in west Sibarian, and a trough in Lack Baikal, the geopotential height was lower in north China on 500 hPa with stronger cold air, and the western pacific subtropical high leaned significantly to west compared with the less years, therefore the CAPE values were higher in Taiyua, then the short-time heavy rainfall occurred more frequently; The less years were just the opposite. This study can provide references for forecasting and research on shot-time heavy rainfall and urban disaster prevention and relief.
引文
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[15]郑永光,张春喜,陈炯,等.用NCEP资料分析华北暖季对流性天气的气候背景[J].北京大学学报:自然科学版,2007,43(5):600-608.
[16]顾西辉,张强,孔冬冬.中国极端降水事件时空特征及其对夏季温度响应[J].地理学报,2016,71(5):718-730.
[17]施能,曹鸿兴.近42年我国冬季气温、降水趋势及年代际变化的成因分析.见施能等编:我国短期气候变化及成因研究[M].北京:气象出版社,1996:49-54.
[18]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2013:28:63-64.
[19]朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文,等.天气学原理和方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2016:368.
[20]王晓默,谷山青,董宁.城市化发展对相对湿度的影响[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(26):242-247.
[21]李易芝,罗伯良,周碧.城市化进程对湖南长株潭地区气温变化的影响[J].干旱气象,2015,33(2):257-262.
[22]吴风波,汤剑平.城市化对长江三角洲地区夏季降水、气温的影响[J].热带气象学报,2015,31(2):255-263.
[23]孙继松,戴建华,何立富,等.强对流天气预报的基本原理与技术方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2014:33-35.
[2]王国荣,王令.北京地区夏季短时强降水时空分布特征[J].暴雨灾害,2013,32(3):276-279.
[3]王楠,井宇.陕西省短时强降水时空分布特征研究[J].陕西农业科学,2013,41(35):13631-13634.
[4]鲁俊,郝莹,陶寅.短时强降水的高分辨率时空分布特征[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(25):247-254.
[5]苏永玲,何立富,巩远发,等.津京冀地区强对流时空分布与天气学特征分析[J].气象,2011,37(2):177-184.
[6]仇娟娟,何立富.苏沪浙地区短时强降水与冰雹天气分布及物理量特征对比分析[J].气象,2013,39(5):577-584.
[7]郝莹,姚叶青,郑媛媛,等.短时强降水的多尺度分析及临近预报[J].气象,2012,38(8):903-912.
[8]陈炯,郑永光,张小玲,等.中国暖季短时强降水分布和日变化特征及其与中尺度对流系统日变化关系分析[J].气象学报,2013,71(3):367-382.
[9]樊李苗,俞小鼎.中国短时强对流天气的若干环境参数特征分析[J].高原气象,2013,32(1):156-165.
[10]常煜,刘勇.呼伦贝尔市一次短时强降水特征分析[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(26):219-224.
[11]李文娟,赵放,赵璐,等.基于单站探空资料的不同强度短时强降水预报指标研究[J].暴雨灾害,2017,36(2):132-138.
[12]马素艳.“20130715”呼和浩特短时强降水雷达回波特征分析[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(5):131-135.
[13]李琳,杨青,常泽堃,等.一次短时强降水过程的中尺度分析[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(30):139-143.
[14]王敏,李万志.青海省短时强降水环境场特征和物理量诊断分析[J].安徽农业科学,2013,41(32):12658-12661.
[15]郑永光,张春喜,陈炯,等.用NCEP资料分析华北暖季对流性天气的气候背景[J].北京大学学报:自然科学版,2007,43(5):600-608.
[16]顾西辉,张强,孔冬冬.中国极端降水事件时空特征及其对夏季温度响应[J].地理学报,2016,71(5):718-730.
[17]施能,曹鸿兴.近42年我国冬季气温、降水趋势及年代际变化的成因分析.见施能等编:我国短期气候变化及成因研究[M].北京:气象出版社,1996:49-54.
[18]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2013:28:63-64.
[19]朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文,等.天气学原理和方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2016:368.
[20]王晓默,谷山青,董宁.城市化发展对相对湿度的影响[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(26):242-247.
[21]李易芝,罗伯良,周碧.城市化进程对湖南长株潭地区气温变化的影响[J].干旱气象,2015,33(2):257-262.
[22]吴风波,汤剑平.城市化对长江三角洲地区夏季降水、气温的影响[J].热带气象学报,2015,31(2):255-263.
[23]孙继松,戴建华,何立富,等.强对流天气预报的基本原理与技术方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2014:33-35.
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