基于产量灾损的冬小麦干热风综合风险区划
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摘要
利用河南省118个县气象站逐日气象资料、作物耕地面积和灌溉面积等资料,30个农业气象观测站产量、产量结构及作物发育期资料,通过分解气象产量和假设千粒重期望值的方法,提取出了灌浆期气象产量,考虑减产风险概率、千粒重变异系数等指标,构建了干热风产量灾损风险指数。将产量灾损风险与灾害气候风险区划结果相结合,制定了干热风灾害综合风险区划。结果表明:提取的灌浆期气象产量呈正态分布,各代表站干热风发生年份的平均减产率为7.4%;干热风产量灾损的低风险区占全区域的43.3%,中度风险区占36.7%,高风险区占20%。襄城、方城、西平和驻马店等地干热风灾害综合风险指数均在0.5以上,是产量灾损高风险与气候高风险的重叠区,低风险区位于伊川、南阳、郑州、太康和淮河以南大部。
Studying the risk of damage caused by agrometeorology disaster has important significance for scientifically defending the disasters. The information including daily meteorology data, area information such as crop planting and irrigation, et al, for 118 counties, as well as yield, yield structure, and crop developmental phases at 30 agrometeorological observation stations were used. By resolving the meteorological yield and assuming an expected value for 1000-kernel weight, the meteorological yield of grain filling stage was separated, and then, indexes as risk index of yield reduction, variable coefficient of 1000-kernel weight, et al, were considered, the index of yield loss risk of dry-hot wind was established. The outcome of yield loss risk and climatic risk of dry-hot wind were integrated to zone the comprehensive hazard risk. The results showed that: the extracted meteorological yield of grain filling stage showed normal distribution, the average loss rate for the years of the hazard was 7.4% at the representative stations. The low risk area of yield loss including 43.3% of the whole stations, 36.7% and 20% for middle and high risk areas, respectively. The high value of comprehensive risk index, which was more than 0.5, distributed at Xiangcheng, Fangcheng, Xiping and Zhumadian, et al, where the high value of yield loss risk and climatic risk overlapped. The low risk region was located at Yichuang, Nangyang, Zhengzhou, Taikang and most of south of Huai-River in the Province.
Studying the risk of damage caused by agrometeorology disaster has important significance for scientifically defending the disasters. The information including daily meteorology data, area information such as crop planting and irrigation, et al, for 118 counties, as well as yield, yield structure, and crop developmental phases at 30 agrometeorological observation stations were used. By resolving the meteorological yield and assuming an expected value for 1000-kernel weight, the meteorological yield of grain filling stage was separated, and then, indexes as risk index of yield reduction, variable coefficient of 1000-kernel weight, et al, were considered, the index of yield loss risk of dry-hot wind was established. The outcome of yield loss risk and climatic risk of dry-hot wind were integrated to zone the comprehensive hazard risk. The results showed that: the extracted meteorological yield of grain filling stage showed normal distribution, the average loss rate for the years of the hazard was 7.4% at the representative stations. The low risk area of yield loss including 43.3% of the whole stations, 36.7% and 20% for middle and high risk areas, respectively. The high value of comprehensive risk index, which was more than 0.5, distributed at Xiangcheng, Fangcheng, Xiping and Zhumadian, et al, where the high value of yield loss risk and climatic risk overlapped. The low risk region was located at Yichuang, Nangyang, Zhengzhou, Taikang and most of south of Huai-River in the Province.
引文
[1] 李香颜,张金平.基于GIS的河南省小麦干热风时空分布特征及危险性分析[J].气象与环境科学,2017,40(2):49-54.
[2] 陈怀亮,邹春辉,付祥建,等.河南省小麦干热风发生规律分析[J].自然资源学报,2001,16(1):59-64.
[3] 陈怀亮,张雪芬,邹春辉,等.河南省小麦青枯发生规律的EOF分析[J].气象科技,2005,33(增):131-135.
[4] 杨霏云,朱玉洁,刘伟昌.华北冬麦区干热风发生规律及风险区划[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(3):112-121.
[5] 赵俊芳,赵艳霞,郭建平,等.过去50年黄淮海地区冬小麦干热风发生的时空演变规律[J].中国农业科学,2012,45(14):2815-2825.
[6] 邓振镛,张强,倾继祖,等.气候暖干化对中国北方干热风的影响[J].冰川冻土,2009,31(4):664-671.
[7] 屈振江,郑小华,李星敏.陕西省冬小麦干热风分布特征及预测研究[J].中国农学通报,2013,29(18):50-56.
[8] 史印山,尤凤春,魏瑞江,等.河北省干热风对小麦千粒重影响分析[J].气象科技,2007,35(5):699-702.
[9] 成林,张志红,常军.近47年来河南省冬小麦干热风灾害的变化分析[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(3):456-460.
[10] 许凯,徐翔宇,李爱花,等.基于概率统计方法的承德市农业旱灾风险评估[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(14):139-146.
[11] 北方小麦干热风科研协作组.小麦干热风气象指标的研究[J].中国农业科学,1983,16(4):68-75.
[12] 华北农业大学干热风科研协作组.干热风的危害和防御措施的研究概况[J].气象科技,1978,(2):26-27.
[13] 朱云林,顾大路,杨文飞.苏北地区干热风的危害与防治[J].江西农业学报,2007,19(3):116-117.
[14] 李香颜,张金平,陈敏.基于GIS的河南省冬小麦干热风风险评估及区划[J].自然灾害学报,2017,26(3):63-70.
[15] 霍治国,姜燕,李世奎,等.QX/T82-2007小麦干热风灾害等级[S].北京:气象出版社,2007.
[16] 钱永兰,毛留喜,周广胜.全球主要粮食作物产量变化及其气象灾害风险评估[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(1):226-235.
[17] 徐虹,张丽娟,赵艳霞,等.黄淮海地区夏玉米花期阴雨灾害风险区划[J].自然灾害学报,2014,23(5):263-272.
[18] 张雪芬,余卫东,王春乙.基于作物模型灾损识别的黄淮区域冬小麦晚霜冻风险评估[J].高原气象,2012,31(1):277-284.
[19] 赵俊芳,赵艳霞,郭建平,等.基于干热风危害指数的黄淮海地区冬小麦干热风灾损评估[J].生态学报,2015,35(16):5287-5293.
[20] 罗蒋梅,王建林,申双和,等.影响冬小麦产量的气象要素定量评价模型[J].南京气象学院学报,2009,32(1):94-99.
[21] 邓国,王昂生,周玉淑.粮食生产风险水平的概率分布计算方法[J].南京气象学院学报,2002,25(4):481-488.
[22] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第二版)[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:35-39.
[23] 张星,张春桂,陈惠,等.熵权理论在定量评价农业气象综合灾情中的应用[J].生态学杂志,2007,26(11):1907-1910.
[24] 张志红,成林,李书岭,等.我国小麦干热风灾害研究进展[J].气象与环境科学,2013,36(2):72-76.
[25] 张志红,成林,李书岭,等.干热风天气对冬小麦生理的影响[J].生态学杂志,2015,34(3):712-717.
[2] 陈怀亮,邹春辉,付祥建,等.河南省小麦干热风发生规律分析[J].自然资源学报,2001,16(1):59-64.
[3] 陈怀亮,张雪芬,邹春辉,等.河南省小麦青枯发生规律的EOF分析[J].气象科技,2005,33(增):131-135.
[4] 杨霏云,朱玉洁,刘伟昌.华北冬麦区干热风发生规律及风险区划[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(3):112-121.
[5] 赵俊芳,赵艳霞,郭建平,等.过去50年黄淮海地区冬小麦干热风发生的时空演变规律[J].中国农业科学,2012,45(14):2815-2825.
[6] 邓振镛,张强,倾继祖,等.气候暖干化对中国北方干热风的影响[J].冰川冻土,2009,31(4):664-671.
[7] 屈振江,郑小华,李星敏.陕西省冬小麦干热风分布特征及预测研究[J].中国农学通报,2013,29(18):50-56.
[8] 史印山,尤凤春,魏瑞江,等.河北省干热风对小麦千粒重影响分析[J].气象科技,2007,35(5):699-702.
[9] 成林,张志红,常军.近47年来河南省冬小麦干热风灾害的变化分析[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(3):456-460.
[10] 许凯,徐翔宇,李爱花,等.基于概率统计方法的承德市农业旱灾风险评估[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(14):139-146.
[11] 北方小麦干热风科研协作组.小麦干热风气象指标的研究[J].中国农业科学,1983,16(4):68-75.
[12] 华北农业大学干热风科研协作组.干热风的危害和防御措施的研究概况[J].气象科技,1978,(2):26-27.
[13] 朱云林,顾大路,杨文飞.苏北地区干热风的危害与防治[J].江西农业学报,2007,19(3):116-117.
[14] 李香颜,张金平,陈敏.基于GIS的河南省冬小麦干热风风险评估及区划[J].自然灾害学报,2017,26(3):63-70.
[15] 霍治国,姜燕,李世奎,等.QX/T82-2007小麦干热风灾害等级[S].北京:气象出版社,2007.
[16] 钱永兰,毛留喜,周广胜.全球主要粮食作物产量变化及其气象灾害风险评估[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(1):226-235.
[17] 徐虹,张丽娟,赵艳霞,等.黄淮海地区夏玉米花期阴雨灾害风险区划[J].自然灾害学报,2014,23(5):263-272.
[18] 张雪芬,余卫东,王春乙.基于作物模型灾损识别的黄淮区域冬小麦晚霜冻风险评估[J].高原气象,2012,31(1):277-284.
[19] 赵俊芳,赵艳霞,郭建平,等.基于干热风危害指数的黄淮海地区冬小麦干热风灾损评估[J].生态学报,2015,35(16):5287-5293.
[20] 罗蒋梅,王建林,申双和,等.影响冬小麦产量的气象要素定量评价模型[J].南京气象学院学报,2009,32(1):94-99.
[21] 邓国,王昂生,周玉淑.粮食生产风险水平的概率分布计算方法[J].南京气象学院学报,2002,25(4):481-488.
[22] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第二版)[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:35-39.
[23] 张星,张春桂,陈惠,等.熵权理论在定量评价农业气象综合灾情中的应用[J].生态学杂志,2007,26(11):1907-1910.
[24] 张志红,成林,李书岭,等.我国小麦干热风灾害研究进展[J].气象与环境科学,2013,36(2):72-76.
[25] 张志红,成林,李书岭,等.干热风天气对冬小麦生理的影响[J].生态学杂志,2015,34(3):712-717.
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