基于模糊C均值聚类法的河南省近57年干旱特征分析
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摘要
根据河南省1960-2017年19个气象站的逐日降雨数据计算标准化降水指数(SPI),结合模糊C均值聚类法、小波分析,从月、年际和周期维度上研究近57年来河南省干旱的时空变化特征。结果表明:所有气象站点可以分成3个区域,分别为豫东南、豫北、豫西地区;全区在1966、1986、1997年发生持续干旱,豫东南持续干旱时间最长为10个月且在夏季易旱,豫北持续干旱时间最长为9个月且易发生特旱,豫西持续干旱时间段最多但尺度最长为7个月;干旱频率主要分布在豫北,豫西次之,豫东南最小,但干旱频率都在30%以上,且20世纪90年代后干旱频率在各区之间分布比较均匀;豫东南、豫北、豫西分别呈现23～25、20～22、15～17 a易干旱的主周期。
Based on the daily precipitation data of 19 meteorological stations in Henan Province of the latest 57 years from 1960 to 2017,the standardized precipitation index( SPI) was calculated. The spatial and temporal characteristics of drought in Henan Province were studied in terms of monthly,interannual and periodic dimensions by the fuzzy C-means clustering and wavelet analysis. The results showed that all meteorological stations could be divided into three regions: southeastern Henan,northern Henan and western Henan. There was a continuous drought in 1966,1986 and 1997 for the whole Henan Province.The longest continuous drought period in southeastern Henan was 10 months and drought prone in summer. The longest continuous drought period in northern Henan was 9 months and it was prone to severe drought. The continuous drought periods in western Henan was the most,but the longest scale was 7 months. Drought frequency was mainly distributed in northern Henan,followed by western Henan,and the least in southeastern Henan,but it was more than 30% and more uniform among regions after the1990 s. The main cycle of 23 ～ 25,20 ～ 22 and 15 ～ 17 years were drought prone in southeast Henan,northern Henan and western Henan,respectively.
Based on the daily precipitation data of 19 meteorological stations in Henan Province of the latest 57 years from 1960 to 2017,the standardized precipitation index( SPI) was calculated. The spatial and temporal characteristics of drought in Henan Province were studied in terms of monthly,interannual and periodic dimensions by the fuzzy C-means clustering and wavelet analysis. The results showed that all meteorological stations could be divided into three regions: southeastern Henan,northern Henan and western Henan. There was a continuous drought in 1966,1986 and 1997 for the whole Henan Province.The longest continuous drought period in southeastern Henan was 10 months and drought prone in summer. The longest continuous drought period in northern Henan was 9 months and it was prone to severe drought. The continuous drought periods in western Henan was the most,but the longest scale was 7 months. Drought frequency was mainly distributed in northern Henan,followed by western Henan,and the least in southeastern Henan,but it was more than 30% and more uniform among regions after the1990 s. The main cycle of 23 ～ 25,20 ～ 22 and 15 ～ 17 years were drought prone in southeast Henan,northern Henan and western Henan,respectively.
引文
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[10]齐冬梅,李跃清,王莺,等.基于Z指数的四川干旱时空分布特征[J].干旱气象,2017,35(5):734-744.
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[12]张磊.基于SPI的近51年临沂市旱涝时空特征分析[C]//中国气象学会,创新驱动发展·提高气象灾害防御能力——S7应对气候变化与农业气象防灾减灾,2013,9.
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[14]李明,王贵文,张莲芝.基于SPEI的中国东北地区干旱分区及其气候特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(6):65-70.
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[16]史本林,朱新玉,胡云川,等.基于SPEI指数的近53年河南省干旱时空变化特征[J].地理研究,2015,34(8):1547-1558.
[17]李思诺,翁白莎,严登明,等.SPI和SPEI在阿克苏河流域的适用性分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(1):101-107+113.
[18]张剑明,廖玉芳,彭嘉栋,等.湖南气象干旱日数的时空变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(6):621-628.
[19]史佳良,王秀茹,李淑芳,等.近50年来河南省气温和降水时空变化特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(3):151-156.
[20]程运平.河南省农业干旱风险评价及区划[D].郑州:华北水利水电大学,2016.
[21]李树岩,刘荣花,师丽魁,等.基于CI指数的河南省近40a干旱特征分析[J].干旱气象,2009,27(2):97-102.
[22]杜懿,麻荣永.1961-2016年南宁市年降雨量变化特征分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(6):50-55.
[2]黄茹,杨贵羽.黄淮海流域干旱时间组合特征分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(2):1-6.
[3]路璐.修正的帕尔默干旱指数在黄河流域的应用[D].大连:辽宁师范大学,2013.
[4]MCKEE T B,DOESKEN N J,KLEIST J.The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales[C]//Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology.Boston,MA:American Meteorological Society,1993,17(22):179-183.
[5]周扬,李宁,吉中会,等.基于SPI指数的1981-2010年内蒙古地区干旱时空分布特征[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(10):1694-1706.
[6]刘鹏,杨涛,师鹏飞,等.塔里木河流域干旱态势时空变化规律分析[J].水电能源科学,2015,33(5):5-8+29.
[7]SONG Xiaoyan,SONG Songbai,SUN Wenyi,et al.Recent changes in extreme precipitation and drought over the Songhua River Basin,China,during 1960-2013[J].Atmospheric Research,2015,157:137-152.
[8]LI Qiongfang,LI Pengcheng,LI Haoyang,et at.Drought assessment using a multivariate drought index in the Luanhe River basin of Northern China[J].Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,2015,29(6):1509-1520.
[9]乔姗姗,潘红卫,雷宏军,等.基于累积相对湿润指数的遵义市农业干旱特征研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2017,36(8):109-114.
[10]齐冬梅,李跃清,王莺,等.基于Z指数的四川干旱时空分布特征[J].干旱气象,2017,35(5):734-744.
[11]鞠彬,曾明,徐国梁.不同干旱指数在新疆哈巴河地区旱情评价中的应用研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(2):237-243.
[12]张磊.基于SPI的近51年临沂市旱涝时空特征分析[C]//中国气象学会,创新驱动发展·提高气象灾害防御能力——S7应对气候变化与农业气象防灾减灾,2013,9.
[13]王栋,梁忠民,王军,等.基于主成分聚类分析的云南省干旱自然分区[J].南水北调与水利科技,2017,15(2):15-21+28.
[14]李明,王贵文,张莲芝.基于SPEI的中国东北地区干旱分区及其气候特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(6):65-70.
[15]陈继祖.河南省区域干旱灾害风险评估[D].郑州:郑州大学,2010.
[16]史本林,朱新玉,胡云川,等.基于SPEI指数的近53年河南省干旱时空变化特征[J].地理研究,2015,34(8):1547-1558.
[17]李思诺,翁白莎,严登明,等.SPI和SPEI在阿克苏河流域的适用性分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(1):101-107+113.
[18]张剑明,廖玉芳,彭嘉栋,等.湖南气象干旱日数的时空变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(6):621-628.
[19]史佳良,王秀茹,李淑芳,等.近50年来河南省气温和降水时空变化特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(3):151-156.
[20]程运平.河南省农业干旱风险评价及区划[D].郑州:华北水利水电大学,2016.
[21]李树岩,刘荣花,师丽魁,等.基于CI指数的河南省近40a干旱特征分析[J].干旱气象,2009,27(2):97-102.
[22]杜懿,麻荣永.1961-2016年南宁市年降雨量变化特征分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(6):50-55.
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