自然-社会水循环模型估算平原-丘陵-湿地区水稻种植潜力
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摘要
自20世纪中叶以来在平原-丘陵-湿地区随着井灌水稻热的兴起,水稻种植面积急剧扩大甚至超过此类地区水稻种植潜力,引起了湿地面积萎缩、地下水水位下降和水质恶化等问题。为解决这些问题,该文构建自然-社会二元水循环模型揭示人类影响下的平原-丘陵-湿地区水循环机理,进而推算适宜的水稻种植面积。首先,利用数值法构建了基于栅格的分布式水文模型,然后在此模型中嵌入人类活动影响模型从而构建了二元水循环模型。根据水稻种植潜力阈值抽取河道水量极值、地下水最大埋深、地下水最大降深和最大地下水开采量等因素与旱田作物种类组合了18种情景模式。在满足控制阈值条件下,依据多年平均日降雨、蒸发和情景模式利用二元模型计算了各种情景的水田种植潜力,由潜力分析得:18种模式地下水最大埋深在5.17～7.49 m之间,地下水最大降深在1.67～3.73 m之间;水田处最大坡度范围0.028～0.053;河道引水量占河道水量的50%～70%;地下水开采比例在79%～112%间;水稻种植潜力为28.36万hm~2～54.12万hm~2,来自旱地面积为21.05万hm~2～40.32万hm~2,来自未利用地面积为5.68万hm~2～11.09万hm~2。以情景模式17为例在水田生育期内对河道生态需水量、地下水水位和旱地作物蒸发等进行了检验,验证得到:整个水稻生育期内分区流域地下水埋深均小于7.12m,开发水田的分区流域基流比最小值为33.45%,分区流域旱田平均蒸发与1990年土地类型情景下的分区流域旱田平均蒸发的比值大部分位于0.98～1.05,说明水稻生育期内情景17对河道水量和地下水水位的影响在控制范围内,对旱田蒸发影响比较小,因此情景模式17的水稻种植潜力是可行的。研究可为描述平原-丘陵-湿地区的水文循环过程和推求水田开发潜力提供依据。
With the increasing of well irrigation for rice since the middle of 20 Century, planting area of plain-hill-wetland region has expanded rapidly over its planting potential. And this phenomenon has caused a series of problems, such as the shrinking of wetland area, the decline of groundwater level and the deterioration of water quality. In order to prevent these problems, a two element water cycle model should be constructed to reveal the water cycle mechanism of plain-hill-wetland area under the influence of human activities, and to calculate the suitable area of rice planting. A grid-based distributed hydrological model was constructed by numerical method. The absolute value of relative error between fitted and measured flood peak discharge was in the range of 1.71%-11.55%. The determination coefficient of flood process line was in the range of 0.67-0.85. It indicated that the model could well simulate the hydrological cycle process in the study area. And then a two element water cycle model was further constructed by embedding the influence of human activities. According to the threshold of rice planting potential, parameters such as the maximum groundwater depth and the maximum groundwater level drawdown were extracted. And 18 kinds of scenarios were constructed by different combinations of the parameters and crop species in dry land. The planting potential of paddy field under various scenarios was calculated using the two element model under the condition of satisfying the control threshold, according to mean annual rainfall, evaporation and scenarios. It is observed that the maximum groundwater depth was 5.17-7.49 m, the maximum groundwater level drawdown was 1.67-3.73 m, the maximum slope of the paddy field was in the range of 0.028-0.053, the river water division flow was 50%-70%, the ratio of groundwater extraction was 79%-112%, the rice planting potential was 2.836×105 hm~2-5.412×105 hm~2, the area from the dry land was 2.105×105 hm~2-4.032×105 hm~2, and the area from the unused land was 5.68×104-1.109×105 hm~2 for the 18 kinds of scenarios. Taking scenario 17 as an example, the river ecological water demand, groundwater depth and evaporation of dry land crops were tested during the growth stage of paddy fields. In the whole rice growing season, the groundwater depth was less than 7.12 m, and the minimum value of base flow ratio in the developed paddy field was 33.45%. The ratio of mean evaporation from dry land of subdivisions in scenario 17 to that under the same land use scenario in 1990 was in the range of 0.98-1.05. It indicated that the effect of scenario 17 on the river water and groundwater level in the rice growth period was within the control range, while the effect on the dry field was relatively small. Hence, the scenario 17 was the optimal one for application. Currently, the parameters such as hydrometeorology, hydrogeology, irrigation system and groundwater depth were not available. However, the water cycle model constructed in the present study could provide valuable information for describing the hydrological cycle process in plain-hill-wetland area and seeking the potential of paddy field development, based on the full use of the limited parameters.
With the increasing of well irrigation for rice since the middle of 20 Century, planting area of plain-hill-wetland region has expanded rapidly over its planting potential. And this phenomenon has caused a series of problems, such as the shrinking of wetland area, the decline of groundwater level and the deterioration of water quality. In order to prevent these problems, a two element water cycle model should be constructed to reveal the water cycle mechanism of plain-hill-wetland area under the influence of human activities, and to calculate the suitable area of rice planting. A grid-based distributed hydrological model was constructed by numerical method. The absolute value of relative error between fitted and measured flood peak discharge was in the range of 1.71%-11.55%. The determination coefficient of flood process line was in the range of 0.67-0.85. It indicated that the model could well simulate the hydrological cycle process in the study area. And then a two element water cycle model was further constructed by embedding the influence of human activities. According to the threshold of rice planting potential, parameters such as the maximum groundwater depth and the maximum groundwater level drawdown were extracted. And 18 kinds of scenarios were constructed by different combinations of the parameters and crop species in dry land. The planting potential of paddy field under various scenarios was calculated using the two element model under the condition of satisfying the control threshold, according to mean annual rainfall, evaporation and scenarios. It is observed that the maximum groundwater depth was 5.17-7.49 m, the maximum groundwater level drawdown was 1.67-3.73 m, the maximum slope of the paddy field was in the range of 0.028-0.053, the river water division flow was 50%-70%, the ratio of groundwater extraction was 79%-112%, the rice planting potential was 2.836×105 hm~2-5.412×105 hm~2, the area from the dry land was 2.105×105 hm~2-4.032×105 hm~2, and the area from the unused land was 5.68×104-1.109×105 hm~2 for the 18 kinds of scenarios. Taking scenario 17 as an example, the river ecological water demand, groundwater depth and evaporation of dry land crops were tested during the growth stage of paddy fields. In the whole rice growing season, the groundwater depth was less than 7.12 m, and the minimum value of base flow ratio in the developed paddy field was 33.45%. The ratio of mean evaporation from dry land of subdivisions in scenario 17 to that under the same land use scenario in 1990 was in the range of 0.98-1.05. It indicated that the effect of scenario 17 on the river water and groundwater level in the rice growth period was within the control range, while the effect on the dry field was relatively small. Hence, the scenario 17 was the optimal one for application. Currently, the parameters such as hydrometeorology, hydrogeology, irrigation system and groundwater depth were not available. However, the water cycle model constructed in the present study could provide valuable information for describing the hydrological cycle process in plain-hill-wetland area and seeking the potential of paddy field development, based on the full use of the limited parameters.
引文
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[12]谢新民,郭洪宇,唐克旺,等.华北平原区地表水与地下水统一评价的二元耦合模型研究[J].水利学报,2002,33(12):95-100.Xie Xinmin,Guo Hongyu,Tang Kewang,et al.Dual coupled model for integrated assessment of surface water and groundwater in North China Plain[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2002,33(12):95-100.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[13]吴普特,高学睿,赵西宁,等.实体水-虚拟水“二维三元”耦合流动理论基本框架[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(12):1-10.Wu Pute,Gao Xuerui,Zhao Xining,et al.Framework of“two-dimension three-element”coupling flow of real water and virtual water[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2016,32(12):1-10.(in Chinese with English abstract)
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