我国粮食生产重心变迁及其影响因素研究
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摘要
粮食问题是关乎我国国计民生的重大问题,粮食生产格局的变化对于粮食供需平衡及粮食安全问题有潜在的影响。基于1997—2016年我国31个省级行政区划的面板数据,运用重心模型分析了我国粮食生产重心的具体演变过程。研究发现,1997—2016年我国粮食生产重心向东北方向转移,总的转移距离为172.56 km,重心所在地大部分集中于河南省的中部地区。进一步运用固定效应模型估计了影响我国粮食生产重心变迁的因素,估计结果显示,人均耕地面积、有效灌溉面积、化肥施用量、机械化、粮食作物播种比例、复种指数均对粮食生产有着显著的正向影响,是驱使粮食生产重心北移的因素。基于此,建议从保护耕地数量与质量、加大农业生产投入与科技投入、探索多样化农业补贴形式、构建区域粮食供需协调机制等方面做好粮食安全保障工作。
Grain security is a critical issue related to our national economy and people's livelihood and the change of grain production pattern has a potential impact on the balance of grain supply and demand.Based on a provincial panel data of 31 administrative regions in China 1997 to 2016,this paper analyzed the evolution path of China's grain production base by the barycenter model.Results show that:in the past 20 years(1997—2016),the grain production base of China has shifted to the northeast by about 172.56 km,and the base now mainly concentrates in the central region of Henan Province.In addition,this paper tried to identify the influencing factors by a fixed effect model.Estimation results indicate that per capita cultivated land area,effective irrigation area,fertilizer application,mechanization,grain crop sowing ratio and replanting index have significant positive influences on grain yield,and these factors drive the grain production base to move the northern region.Based on the above results,to ensure grain security in China,this paper suggests to protect the quantity and quality of the cultivated land,to increase agricultural input and technological input,to explore diversified agricultural subsidies,and to construct the coordination mechanism of regional grain supply and demand.
Grain security is a critical issue related to our national economy and people's livelihood and the change of grain production pattern has a potential impact on the balance of grain supply and demand.Based on a provincial panel data of 31 administrative regions in China 1997 to 2016,this paper analyzed the evolution path of China's grain production base by the barycenter model.Results show that:in the past 20 years(1997—2016),the grain production base of China has shifted to the northeast by about 172.56 km,and the base now mainly concentrates in the central region of Henan Province.In addition,this paper tried to identify the influencing factors by a fixed effect model.Estimation results indicate that per capita cultivated land area,effective irrigation area,fertilizer application,mechanization,grain crop sowing ratio and replanting index have significant positive influences on grain yield,and these factors drive the grain production base to move the northern region.Based on the above results,to ensure grain security in China,this paper suggests to protect the quantity and quality of the cultivated land,to increase agricultural input and technological input,to explore diversified agricultural subsidies,and to construct the coordination mechanism of regional grain supply and demand.
引文
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[12]文琦,赵亮.1978-2011年宁夏粮食产量重心移动轨迹及其驱动机制[J].地域研究与开发,2014,33(1):99-102.Wen Q,Zhao L.Changes of grain output center of gravity and its driving forces in Ningxia from 1978 to 2011[J].Areal Research and Development,2014,33(1):99-102.
[13]廉莹.我国经济重心与人口就业重心演变轨迹比较分析[D].长春:吉林大学,2007.Lian Y.Comparative analysis on the variation track of the economy gravity venter and the population-employment gravity center in China[D].Changchun:Jilin University,2007.
[14]乔健,吴青龙.中国碳排放强度重心演变及驱动因素分析[J].经济问题,2017(8):63-67,110.Qiao J,Wu Q L.Analysis on the evolution and driving factors of China's carbon emission intensity[J].On Economic Problems,2017(8):63-67,110.
[15]王泽宇,卢雪凤,孙才志,等.中国海洋经济重心演变及影响因素[J].经济地理,2017,37(5):12-19.Wang Z Y,Lu X F,Sun C Z,et al.Influence factors and evolution of China's marine economic spatial pattern[J].Economic Geography,2017,37(5):12-19.
[16]覃志豪,唐华俊,李文娟.气候变化对我国粮食生产系统影响的研究前沿[J].中国农业资源与区划,2015,36(1):1-8.Qin Z H,Tang H J,Li W J.Front issues in studying the impacts of climate change on grain farming system in China[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2015,36(1):1-8.
[17]李月,孔祥斌,张安录,等.基于LMDI模型的我国省域粮食生产变化影响因素分析[J].中国农业大学学报,2016,21(1):129-140.Li Y,Kong X B,Zhang A L,et al.Analysis of influence factors on crop production change in China at provincial level based on LMDI model[J].Journal of China Agricultural University,2016,21(1):129-140.
[18]王介勇,刘彦随.1990年至2005年中国粮食产量重心演进格局及其驱动机制[J].资源科学,2009,31(7):1188-1194.Wang J Y,Liu Y S.The changes of grain output center of gravity and its driving forces in China since 1990[J].Resources Science,2009,31(7):1188-1194.
[19]程名望,黄甜甜,刘雅娟.农村劳动力外流对粮食生产的影响:来自中国的证据[J].中国农村观察,2015(6):15-21.Cheng M W,Huang T T,Liu Y J.The influence of rural labor outflow on food production:From the evidence of China[J].China Rural Survey,2015(6):15-21.
[20]孙秀锋.中国粮食产销平衡区的粮食安全与耕地保护研究--以重庆市为例[D].重庆:西南大学,2013.Sun X F.Research on the Grain Security and Cultivated Land Protection of Chinese Grain Production and Marketing Balance Areas-Take Chongqing Municipality as an Example[D].Chongqing:Southwest University,2013.
[2]陈秧分,李先德.中国粮食产量变化的时空格局与影响因素[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(20):1-10.Chen Y F,Li X D.Spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of grain yield change in China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2013,29(20):1-10.
[3]柏娜,谭淑豪,张书怡.粮食生产重心转移及其生态影响研究--基于劳动力机会成本视角的分析[J].中国物价,2016(3):45-47.Bai N,Tan S H,Zhang S Y.Study on the transfer of grain production barycenter and its ecological impact-Based on the perspective of labor opportunity cost[J].China Price,2016(3):45-47.
[4]刘腾谣,吴玲.我国粮食生产区域变化特征及影响因素分析[J].江苏农业科学,2016,44(4):548-551.Liu T Y,Wu L.Analysis of regional variation characteristics and influencing factors of grain production in China[J].Jiangsu Agricultural Sciences,2016,44(4):548-551.
[5]张锦宗,朱瑜馨,赵飞,等.我国粮食生产格局演变及增产贡献研究[J].中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(7):10-16,35.Zhang J Z,Zhu Y X,Zhao F,et al.Spatial-temporal evolution of Chinese grain production pattern and arable land production capacity[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2017,38(7):10-16,35.
[6]刘正兵,丁志伟,王发曾.山西省县域粮食生产时空格局及影响因子分析[J].广东农业科学,2014(13):186-193.Liu Z B,Ding Z W,Wang F Z.Study on space-time pattern and impact factors of grain production of Shanxi province at county level[J].Guangdong Agricultural Sciences,2014(13):186-193.
[7]杨春,陆文聪.基于空间计量经济模型的县域粮食生产区域格局研究[J].农业技术经济,2010(5):24-29.Yang C,Lu W C.Study on regional pattern of grain production in county level based on spatial econometric model[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2010(5):24-29.
[8]陈秧分,王国刚,王丽娟.农户生产决策视角下我国粮食生产格局变化机制[J].经济地理,2016,36(7):139-145.Chen Y F,Wang G G,Wang L J.Change mechanism of China's grain production from the perspective of peasant household's decision behavior[J].Economic Geography,2016,36(7):139-145.
[9]郝振华,叶得明.甘肃省粮食生产影响因素分析[J].中国农业科技导报,2013,15(2):45-53.Hao Z H,Ye D M.Analysis of influential factors on grain production in Gansu Province[J].Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology,2013,15(2):44-53.
[10]黄臻.我国粮食生产影响因素分析--基于C-D生产函数的岭回归分析[J].税务与经济,2014(5):50-54.Huang Z.Analysis of influencing factors of grain production in China-Based on C-D production function and ridge regression[J].Taxation and Economy,2014(5):50-54.
[11]李静.黑龙江省粮食生产影响因素研究[D].哈尔滨:东北农业大学,2014.Li J.Research on the factor analysis of grain-production in Heilongjiang Province[D].Harbin:Northeast Agricultural University,2014.
[12]文琦,赵亮.1978-2011年宁夏粮食产量重心移动轨迹及其驱动机制[J].地域研究与开发,2014,33(1):99-102.Wen Q,Zhao L.Changes of grain output center of gravity and its driving forces in Ningxia from 1978 to 2011[J].Areal Research and Development,2014,33(1):99-102.
[13]廉莹.我国经济重心与人口就业重心演变轨迹比较分析[D].长春:吉林大学,2007.Lian Y.Comparative analysis on the variation track of the economy gravity venter and the population-employment gravity center in China[D].Changchun:Jilin University,2007.
[14]乔健,吴青龙.中国碳排放强度重心演变及驱动因素分析[J].经济问题,2017(8):63-67,110.Qiao J,Wu Q L.Analysis on the evolution and driving factors of China's carbon emission intensity[J].On Economic Problems,2017(8):63-67,110.
[15]王泽宇,卢雪凤,孙才志,等.中国海洋经济重心演变及影响因素[J].经济地理,2017,37(5):12-19.Wang Z Y,Lu X F,Sun C Z,et al.Influence factors and evolution of China's marine economic spatial pattern[J].Economic Geography,2017,37(5):12-19.
[16]覃志豪,唐华俊,李文娟.气候变化对我国粮食生产系统影响的研究前沿[J].中国农业资源与区划,2015,36(1):1-8.Qin Z H,Tang H J,Li W J.Front issues in studying the impacts of climate change on grain farming system in China[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2015,36(1):1-8.
[17]李月,孔祥斌,张安录,等.基于LMDI模型的我国省域粮食生产变化影响因素分析[J].中国农业大学学报,2016,21(1):129-140.Li Y,Kong X B,Zhang A L,et al.Analysis of influence factors on crop production change in China at provincial level based on LMDI model[J].Journal of China Agricultural University,2016,21(1):129-140.
[18]王介勇,刘彦随.1990年至2005年中国粮食产量重心演进格局及其驱动机制[J].资源科学,2009,31(7):1188-1194.Wang J Y,Liu Y S.The changes of grain output center of gravity and its driving forces in China since 1990[J].Resources Science,2009,31(7):1188-1194.
[19]程名望,黄甜甜,刘雅娟.农村劳动力外流对粮食生产的影响:来自中国的证据[J].中国农村观察,2015(6):15-21.Cheng M W,Huang T T,Liu Y J.The influence of rural labor outflow on food production:From the evidence of China[J].China Rural Survey,2015(6):15-21.
[20]孙秀锋.中国粮食产销平衡区的粮食安全与耕地保护研究--以重庆市为例[D].重庆:西南大学,2013.Sun X F.Research on the Grain Security and Cultivated Land Protection of Chinese Grain Production and Marketing Balance Areas-Take Chongqing Municipality as an Example[D].Chongqing:Southwest University,2013.
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