广西土地整治增长极及其驱动类型分析——基于改进灰色关联模型
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摘要
为了归纳总结广西土地整治的实施规律,分析确定其主要驱动类型,运用时间序列法,对广西2005年至2015年土地整治规模变化进行了演绎归纳。运用线性趋势分析法,对2016年至2020年土地整治规模进行了预测。运用改进灰色关联分析方法,基于城乡统筹视角,从经济、社会和资源三个方面共选择15个因子,对土地整理、土地开发和土地复垦进行了驱动力分析。结果表明,2005—2015年广西土地整治存在不同增长极现象,"十一五"期间土地整理是增长核心,"十二五"期间土地开发是增长核心。经预测分析,"十三五"期间土地复垦将会是增长核心。受政策和时机影响,土地整治的增长极将会在土地整理、土地开发和土地复垦之间呈依次循环、周期叠进的发展规律。受优质耕地资源数量少、农业基础设施薄弱等因素影响,广西土地整理主要为"资源+社会"驱动型。受"不稳定耕地"资源数量大、农业保险赔款支出率高等因素影响,广西土地开发主要为资源驱动型。受北部湾经济区发展速度快、土地利用集聚效应显著、不合理开发所致破损土地数量增大等因素影响,广西土地复垦主要为经济驱动型。研究表明,区域土地整治存在增长极现象,土地整理、土地开发和土地复垦作为土地整治发展的核心,其实施规模与驱动类型各有差异,三者间的优化协调发展,应是新时期土地整治发展的主要方向与任务。
As a region that is typical of land consolidation in southwest China, Guangxi has summarized its application regulation and analyzed & determined their main driving factors. This is useful for the promotion of land consolidation. This study used the time series method to deduce and summarize the evolution of land consolidation in Guangxi from 2005 to 2015. This study also used the linear trend analysis method to predict the scale of land consolidation from 2016 to 2020. Consequently, 15 factors had been selected from three aspects including economy, society, and resources to analyze the driving factors of land arrangement, land development, and land reclamation using the improved grey relational analysis method from a urban-rural coordination perspective. The results showed that there were several different growth pole phenomena for land consolidation in Guangxi from 2005 to 2015. During the 11 th Five-Year Plan period, land arrangement was the key growth point, and during the 12 th Five-Year Plan, land development was the key growth point. Using forecasting and analysis,it was considered that land reclamation would become the key growth point during the 13 thFive-Year Plan period. As a result of policies and opportunities, the growing poles of land consolidation would follow the same development pattern as that had occurred in previous years. Influenced by a shortage of high-quality cultivated land resources and weak agricultural infrastructure, land utilization in Guangxi was mainly driven by "resources+society". Due to a large number of "unstable cultivated land" resources and a high rate of agricultural insurance indemnity expenditure, land development in Guangxi was mainly resource-driven. As a result of the rapid development of the Beibu Gulf economic zone, the significant effect of land use agglomeration, and the increase in degraded land caused by unsustainable development, land reclamation in Guangxi was mainly driven by economic need. Moreover, there were growth pole phenomena that were relevant for regional land consolidation. The core points of land arrangement, development, and reclamation would have numerous implementation scales and driving factors. Their optimum and coordinated development should provide the direction for land consolidation development in the future.
As a region that is typical of land consolidation in southwest China, Guangxi has summarized its application regulation and analyzed & determined their main driving factors. This is useful for the promotion of land consolidation. This study used the time series method to deduce and summarize the evolution of land consolidation in Guangxi from 2005 to 2015. This study also used the linear trend analysis method to predict the scale of land consolidation from 2016 to 2020. Consequently, 15 factors had been selected from three aspects including economy, society, and resources to analyze the driving factors of land arrangement, land development, and land reclamation using the improved grey relational analysis method from a urban-rural coordination perspective. The results showed that there were several different growth pole phenomena for land consolidation in Guangxi from 2005 to 2015. During the 11 th Five-Year Plan period, land arrangement was the key growth point, and during the 12 th Five-Year Plan, land development was the key growth point. Using forecasting and analysis,it was considered that land reclamation would become the key growth point during the 13 thFive-Year Plan period. As a result of policies and opportunities, the growing poles of land consolidation would follow the same development pattern as that had occurred in previous years. Influenced by a shortage of high-quality cultivated land resources and weak agricultural infrastructure, land utilization in Guangxi was mainly driven by "resources+society". Due to a large number of "unstable cultivated land" resources and a high rate of agricultural insurance indemnity expenditure, land development in Guangxi was mainly resource-driven. As a result of the rapid development of the Beibu Gulf economic zone, the significant effect of land use agglomeration, and the increase in degraded land caused by unsustainable development, land reclamation in Guangxi was mainly driven by economic need. Moreover, there were growth pole phenomena that were relevant for regional land consolidation. The core points of land arrangement, development, and reclamation would have numerous implementation scales and driving factors. Their optimum and coordinated development should provide the direction for land consolidation development in the future.
引文
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[2]Gopal B T,Gajendra S N.Alternative options of land consolidation in the mountains of Nepal:Analysis based on stakeholders′opinions[J].Land Use Policy,2008,25:338-350.
[3]Janus J.Markuszewska I.Land consolidation-A great need to improve effectiveness:A case study from Poland[J].Land Use Policy,2017,65:143-153.
[4]Demetriou D.The assessment of land valuation in land consolidation schemes:The need for a new land valuation framework[J].Land Use Policy,2016,54:487-498.
[5]Avci M.A new approach oriented to new reallotment model based on block priority method in land consolidation[J].Turkish Journal of Agriculture and Forestry,1999,23(4):451-458.
[6]Lemmen C,Jansen L,Rosman F.Informational and computational approaches to land consolidation[C/OL].[2018-12-26].http://www.fig.net/resources/proceedings/fig_proceedings/fig2012/papers/ts02e/TS02E_lemmen_jansen_et_al_6049.pdf.
[7]Demetrion D,Stillwell J,See L.An integrated planning and decision support system(IPDSS)for land consolidation:Theoretical framework and application of the land-redistribution modules[J].Environment and Planning B:Planning and Design,2012,39(4):609-628.
[8]Angel H Z,Stovall J P.Surface and subsurface tillage effects on mine soil properties and vegetative response[J].Soil Science Society of America Journal,2018,82(2):475-482.
[9]Justyna W L,Przemyslaw L,Katarzyna S M.The proposed algorithm for identifying agricultural problem areas for the needs of their reasonable management under land consolidation works[J].Computers and Electronics in Agriculture,2018,152:333-339.
[10]Vicen?C,Ortiz O,Alca?iz J M.Sewage sludge as an organic amendment for quarry restoration:Effects on soil and vegetation[J].Land Degradation&Development,2018,29(8):2568-2574.
[11]刘元芳,郑艳东,赵娇娇,等.基于能值分析方法的农村土地整治效益评价[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(2):191-195,200.LIU Yuan-fang,ZHENG Yan-dong,ZHAO Jiao-jiao,et al.Research of benefit evaluation of rural land remediation based on energy analysis method[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,20(2):191-195,200.
[12]黄辉玲,吴次芳,张守忠.黑龙江省土地整治规划效益分析与评价[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(6):240-246.HUANG Hui-ling,WU Ci-fang,ZHANG Shou-zhong.Benefits analysis and evaluation on land consolidation planning in Heilongjiang Province[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2012,28(6):240-246.
[13]胡业翠,郑云梅,徐劲原.中国土地整治资金效益及其空间分异[J].中国土地科学,2012,26(2):34-43.HU Ye-cui,ZHENG Yun-mei,XU Jin-yuan.Analysis on the monetary benefit and spatial disparity of land consolidation in China[J].China Land Sciences,2012,26(2):34-43.
[14]郧文聚,宇振荣.生态文明:土地整治的新目标[J].中国土地,2011(9):20-21.YUN Wen-ju,YU Zhen-rong.Ecological civilization:A new target of land consolidation[J].China Land,2011(9):20-21.
[15]范金梅.生态型土地整治大有可为[J].中国土地,2017(3):13-15.FAN Jin-mei.Ecological land consolidation has great potential[J].China Land,2017(3):13-15.
[16]张文瑞.土地生态化整治与农业景观设计实证研究[J].中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(4):224-227.ZHANG Wen-rui.An empirical study of ecological land consolidation and agricultural landscape design[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources&Regional Planning,2016,37(4):224-227.
[17]谭少军,邵景安.基于生态适宜性评价的西南丘陵区土地整治工程布局研究[J].地理研究,2018,37(4):659-677.TAN Shao-jun,SHAO Jing-an.Land consolidation project layout based on ecological suitability evaluation in hilly areas of southwest China[J].Geographical Research,2018,37(4):659-677.
[18]曲衍波,朱伟亚,郧文聚,等.基于压力-状态-响应模型的土地整治空间格局及障碍诊断[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(3):241-249.QU Yan-bo,ZHU Wei-ya,YUN Wen-ju,et al.Land consolidation spatial pattern and diagnosis of its obstacle factors based on pressurestate-response model[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2017,33(3):241-249.
[19]刘新卫,梁梦茵,郧文聚,等.地方土地整治规划实施的探索与实践[J].中国土地科学,2014,28(12):4-9.LIU Xin-wei,LIANG Meng-yin,YUN Wen-ju,et al.Exploration and practice of land rearrangement planning at local level[J].China Land Sciences,2014,28(12):4-9.
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[21]杨俊,王占岐,金贵,等.基于AHP与模糊综合评价的土地整治项目实施后效益评价[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(8):1036-1042.YANG Jun,WANG Zhan-qi,JIN Gui,et al.Post-benefit evaluation of land consolidation project implementation based on AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2013,22(8):1036-1042.
[22]罗文斌,吴次芳.农村土地整理项目绩效评价及影响因素定量分析[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(22):273-281.LUO Wen-bin,WU Ci-fang.Quantitative analysis of performance evaluation and influencing factors of rural land consolidation projects[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2014,30(22):273-281.
[23]魏凤娟,李江风,刘艳中,等.基于村级领导满意度的湖北省土地整理项目绩效评价[J].中国土地科学,2014,28(11):57-65.WEI Feng-juan,LI Jiang-feng,LIU Yan-zhong,et al.Performance evaluation of land consolidation projects in Hubei Province based on the satisfaction of village leaders[J].China Land Sciences,2014,28(11):57-65.
[24]刘海楠,王德起.区域经济协调发展驱动下的农村土地综合整治研究[J].农业经济,2014(3):49-51.LIU Hai-nan,WANG De-qi.Research on the comprehensive improvement of rural land driven by the coordinated development of regional economy[J].Agricultural Economy,2014(3):49-51.
[25]范润梅,苑京,王征南.基于不同驱动因素的农村土地整治策略[J].农业经济,2015(8):96-98.FAN Run-mei,YUAN Jing,WANG Zheng-nan.Strategies of rural land improvement based on different driving factors[J].Agricultural Economy,2015(8):96-98.
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