CENTURY模型在川西北高原草原的适用性研究
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摘要
利用草地生态模型评价气候变化对草地生产力的影响,对于草地的可持续利用有重要意义。本文选取川西北高原的石渠和若尔盖为代表站点,基于试验站多年牧草观测资料,对草地生态系统模型(CENTURY)在川西北高原草地的适用性进行研究。结果表明:CENTURY模型模拟的石渠和若尔盖牧草地上部生物量的模拟值与观测值比较吻合,决定系数分别为0.85和0.48,均通过了0.05的显著性检验,均方根误差分别为5.4g·m~(-2)和122.4g·m~(-2),CENTURY模型能够较好的模拟牧草地上部生物量,适用于气候变化对川西北高原草地生产力的影响研究。基于验证后的CENTURY模型对1961—2017年牧草地上生物量的模拟结果显示,近57年来石渠和若尔盖牧草地上生物量均呈显著增加趋势,增加速率分别为5.4g·m~(-2)·(10a)~(-1)和17.2g·m~(-2)·(10a)~(-1)。
It is very important for sustainable utilization of grassland to study the impact of climate change on grassland productivity based on grassland ecosystem model.In this paper,Shiqu(32.98°N,98.10°E)and Ruoergai(33.58°N,102.97°E)were selected as representative sites in Northwest plateau of Sichuan province.The long-term observation data of grassland biomass from the livestock meteorological experiment stations were used to calibrate and validate the grassland ecosystem model(CENTURY).The results showed that there was a close consistency between the simulated and measured above-ground biomass at Shiqu and Ruoergai.The determination coefficients were 0.85 and 0.45(P<0.05).Relative mean square roots were 5.4 g·m~(-2) and 122.4 g·m~(-2).The CENTURY model could be used to simulate pasture above-ground biomass and thereafter study the impact of climate change on grass productivity in Northwest plateau of Sichuan province.The changes of grassland above-ground biomass at Shiqu and Ruoergai were simulated during the past 57 years(1961~(-2)017)based on CENTURY model.The simulation results displayed that the grassland above-ground biomass during the past 57 years increased significantly at Shiqu and Ruoergai,and the increasing rates were 5.4 g·m~(-2)·(10 a)~(-1) and 17.2 g·m~(-2)·(10 a)~(-1),respectively.
It is very important for sustainable utilization of grassland to study the impact of climate change on grassland productivity based on grassland ecosystem model.In this paper,Shiqu(32.98°N,98.10°E)and Ruoergai(33.58°N,102.97°E)were selected as representative sites in Northwest plateau of Sichuan province.The long-term observation data of grassland biomass from the livestock meteorological experiment stations were used to calibrate and validate the grassland ecosystem model(CENTURY).The results showed that there was a close consistency between the simulated and measured above-ground biomass at Shiqu and Ruoergai.The determination coefficients were 0.85 and 0.45(P<0.05).Relative mean square roots were 5.4 g·m~(-2) and 122.4 g·m~(-2).The CENTURY model could be used to simulate pasture above-ground biomass and thereafter study the impact of climate change on grass productivity in Northwest plateau of Sichuan province.The changes of grassland above-ground biomass at Shiqu and Ruoergai were simulated during the past 57 years(1961~(-2)017)based on CENTURY model.The simulation results displayed that the grassland above-ground biomass during the past 57 years increased significantly at Shiqu and Ruoergai,and the increasing rates were 5.4 g·m~(-2)·(10 a)~(-1) and 17.2 g·m~(-2)·(10 a)~(-1),respectively.
引文
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[2]中华人民共和国农业部畜牧兽医司,全国畜牧兽医总站.中国草地资源[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1996:22
[3]朴世龙,方精云,贺金生,等.中国草地植被生物量及其空间分布格局[J].植物生态学报,2004,28(4):491-498
[4]盛文萍.气候变化对内蒙古草地生态系统影响的模拟研究[D]:中国农业科学院;2007:6
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[6]Uchijima Z,Seino H.Agroclimatic evaluation of net primary productivity of natural vegetations:1.Chikugo model for evaluating net primary productivity[J].Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan,1985,40,343-352
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[8]Potter C S,Randerson J T,Field C B,et al.Terrestrial ecosystem production:A process model based on global satellite and surface data[J].Global Biogeochemical Cycles,1993,7(4):811-841
[9]Prince S D,Goward S N.Global primary production:a remote sensing approach[J].Journal of Biogeography,1995,20:815-835
[10]Haxeltine A,Prentice I C.BIOME3:an equilibrium biosphere model based on ecophysiological constraints,resource availability and competition among plant functional types[J].Global Biogeochemical Cycles,1996,10(4):693-709
[11]Parton W J,Schimel D S,Cole C V,et al.Analysis of factors controlling soil organic matter levels in Great Plains steppe[J].Soil Science Society of America Journal,1987,51(5):1173-1179
[12]赵敏,周广胜.中国北方林生产力变化趋势及其影响因子分析[J].西北植物学报,2005,25(3):466-471
[13]Xiao X M,Ojima D S,Parton W J,et al.Sensitivity of Inner Mongolia grasslands to climate change[J].Journal of Biogeography,1995,22:643-648
[14]吕新苗,郑度.气候变化对长江源地区高寒草甸生态系统的影响[J].长江流域资源与环境,2006,15(5):603-607
[15]袁飞,韩兴国,葛剑平,等.内蒙古锡林河流域羊草草原净初级生产力及其对全球气候变化的响应[J].应用生态学报,2008,19(10):2168-2176.
[16]陈辰.气候变化与放牧管理对内蒙古草地生产力影响的模拟研究[D].北京:中国农业大学,2012:47-57
[17]张虹娇.川西北高原气候变化特征研究[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2014,36(12):148-156
[18]Parton W J,Stewart J W B,Cole C V.Dynamics of C,N,P and S in grassland soils:a model[J].Biogeochemistry,1988,5(1):109-131
[19]Parton W J,Scurlock J M O,Ojima D S,et al.Observations and modeling of biomass and soil organic matter dynamics for the grassland biome worldwide[J].Global Biogeochemical Cycles,1993,7(4):785-809
[20]Parton W J,Rasmussen P E.Long-term effects of crop management in wheat-fallow:II.CENTURY model simulations[J].Soil Science Society of America Journal,1994,58,530-536
[21]Kirschbaum M U F,Paul K I.Modelling C and N dynamics in forest soils with a modified version of the CENTURY model[J].Soil Biology and Biochemistry,2002,34:341-354
[22]Alister K M,Laura A H,Cole C V,et al.CENTURY Soil Organic Matter Model Environment Technical Documentation Agroecosystem Version 4.0(Great Plains System Research U-nit Technical Report No.4)[R].Fort Collins Colorado:United States Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research Service Great Plains Systems Research Unit,1993
[23]莫志鸿.北方草原生态系统NPP、Rh和SOC对气候变化的响应[D].北京:中国农业科学院,2012:6-7
[24]赵文龙.中国北方草原物候、生产力和土壤碳储量对气候变化的响应[D].北京:兰州大学,2012:13-14
[25]Willmott C J.Some comments on the evaluation of model performance[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1982,63:1309-1313
[26]Gilmanov T G,Parton W J,Ojima D S.Testing the‘CENTU-RY’ecosystem level model on data sets from eight grassland sites in the former USSR representing a wide climatic/soil gradient[J].Ecological Modelling,1997,96:191-210
[27]Hirota M,Zhang P C,Gu S,et al.Small-scale variation in ecosystem CO2fluxes in an alpine meadow depends on plant biomass and species richness[J].Journal of Plant Research,2010,123:531-541
[28]王艳芬,汪诗平.不同放牧率对内蒙古典型草原地下生物量的影响[J].草地学报,1999,7:198-203
[29]Zhou H K,Tang Y H,Zhao X Q,et al.Long-term grazing alters species composition and biomass of a shrub meadow on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J].Pakistan Journal of Botany,2006,38:1055-1069
[30]陈辰,王靖,潘学标,等.CENTURY模型在内蒙古草地生态系统的适用性评价[J].草地学报,2012,20(6):1011-1019
[31]沈海花,朱言坤,赵霞,等.中国草地资源的现状分析[J].科学通报,2016,61:139-154
[32]Fang J Y,Yang Y H,Ma W H,et al.Ecosystem carbon stocks and their changes in China’s grasslands[J].Science China Life Sciences,2010,53:757-765
[33]Tang Y H,Wan S Q,He J S,et al.Foreword to the special issue:Looking into the impacts of global warming from the roof of the world[J].Journal of Plant Ecology,2009,2:169-171
[34]伏兵哲,兰剑,李小伟.宁夏天然草地气象因子与草地初级生产力关系研究[J].草地学报,2012,20(3):407-412
[35]Piao S,Fang J,Zhou L,et al.Changes in biomass carbon stocks in China’s grasslands between 1982and 1999[J].Global Biogeochemical Cycles,2007,21:B2002
[2]中华人民共和国农业部畜牧兽医司,全国畜牧兽医总站.中国草地资源[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1996:22
[3]朴世龙,方精云,贺金生,等.中国草地植被生物量及其空间分布格局[J].植物生态学报,2004,28(4):491-498
[4]盛文萍.气候变化对内蒙古草地生态系统影响的模拟研究[D]:中国农业科学院;2007:6
[5]Lieth H.Primary production:terrestrial ecosystems[J].Human Ecology,1973,1,303-332
[6]Uchijima Z,Seino H.Agroclimatic evaluation of net primary productivity of natural vegetations:1.Chikugo model for evaluating net primary productivity[J].Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan,1985,40,343-352
[7]Heimann M,Keeling C D.A three-dimensional model of atmospheric CO2transport based on observed winds:2.Model description and simulated tracer experiments[M].In:D.H.Peterson(ed.).Climate Variability in the Pacific and the Western Americas,American Geophysical Union,1989,237-275
[8]Potter C S,Randerson J T,Field C B,et al.Terrestrial ecosystem production:A process model based on global satellite and surface data[J].Global Biogeochemical Cycles,1993,7(4):811-841
[9]Prince S D,Goward S N.Global primary production:a remote sensing approach[J].Journal of Biogeography,1995,20:815-835
[10]Haxeltine A,Prentice I C.BIOME3:an equilibrium biosphere model based on ecophysiological constraints,resource availability and competition among plant functional types[J].Global Biogeochemical Cycles,1996,10(4):693-709
[11]Parton W J,Schimel D S,Cole C V,et al.Analysis of factors controlling soil organic matter levels in Great Plains steppe[J].Soil Science Society of America Journal,1987,51(5):1173-1179
[12]赵敏,周广胜.中国北方林生产力变化趋势及其影响因子分析[J].西北植物学报,2005,25(3):466-471
[13]Xiao X M,Ojima D S,Parton W J,et al.Sensitivity of Inner Mongolia grasslands to climate change[J].Journal of Biogeography,1995,22:643-648
[14]吕新苗,郑度.气候变化对长江源地区高寒草甸生态系统的影响[J].长江流域资源与环境,2006,15(5):603-607
[15]袁飞,韩兴国,葛剑平,等.内蒙古锡林河流域羊草草原净初级生产力及其对全球气候变化的响应[J].应用生态学报,2008,19(10):2168-2176.
[16]陈辰.气候变化与放牧管理对内蒙古草地生产力影响的模拟研究[D].北京:中国农业大学,2012:47-57
[17]张虹娇.川西北高原气候变化特征研究[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2014,36(12):148-156
[18]Parton W J,Stewart J W B,Cole C V.Dynamics of C,N,P and S in grassland soils:a model[J].Biogeochemistry,1988,5(1):109-131
[19]Parton W J,Scurlock J M O,Ojima D S,et al.Observations and modeling of biomass and soil organic matter dynamics for the grassland biome worldwide[J].Global Biogeochemical Cycles,1993,7(4):785-809
[20]Parton W J,Rasmussen P E.Long-term effects of crop management in wheat-fallow:II.CENTURY model simulations[J].Soil Science Society of America Journal,1994,58,530-536
[21]Kirschbaum M U F,Paul K I.Modelling C and N dynamics in forest soils with a modified version of the CENTURY model[J].Soil Biology and Biochemistry,2002,34:341-354
[22]Alister K M,Laura A H,Cole C V,et al.CENTURY Soil Organic Matter Model Environment Technical Documentation Agroecosystem Version 4.0(Great Plains System Research U-nit Technical Report No.4)[R].Fort Collins Colorado:United States Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research Service Great Plains Systems Research Unit,1993
[23]莫志鸿.北方草原生态系统NPP、Rh和SOC对气候变化的响应[D].北京:中国农业科学院,2012:6-7
[24]赵文龙.中国北方草原物候、生产力和土壤碳储量对气候变化的响应[D].北京:兰州大学,2012:13-14
[25]Willmott C J.Some comments on the evaluation of model performance[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1982,63:1309-1313
[26]Gilmanov T G,Parton W J,Ojima D S.Testing the‘CENTU-RY’ecosystem level model on data sets from eight grassland sites in the former USSR representing a wide climatic/soil gradient[J].Ecological Modelling,1997,96:191-210
[27]Hirota M,Zhang P C,Gu S,et al.Small-scale variation in ecosystem CO2fluxes in an alpine meadow depends on plant biomass and species richness[J].Journal of Plant Research,2010,123:531-541
[28]王艳芬,汪诗平.不同放牧率对内蒙古典型草原地下生物量的影响[J].草地学报,1999,7:198-203
[29]Zhou H K,Tang Y H,Zhao X Q,et al.Long-term grazing alters species composition and biomass of a shrub meadow on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J].Pakistan Journal of Botany,2006,38:1055-1069
[30]陈辰,王靖,潘学标,等.CENTURY模型在内蒙古草地生态系统的适用性评价[J].草地学报,2012,20(6):1011-1019
[31]沈海花,朱言坤,赵霞,等.中国草地资源的现状分析[J].科学通报,2016,61:139-154
[32]Fang J Y,Yang Y H,Ma W H,et al.Ecosystem carbon stocks and their changes in China’s grasslands[J].Science China Life Sciences,2010,53:757-765
[33]Tang Y H,Wan S Q,He J S,et al.Foreword to the special issue:Looking into the impacts of global warming from the roof of the world[J].Journal of Plant Ecology,2009,2:169-171
[34]伏兵哲,兰剑,李小伟.宁夏天然草地气象因子与草地初级生产力关系研究[J].草地学报,2012,20(3):407-412
[35]Piao S,Fang J,Zhou L,et al.Changes in biomass carbon stocks in China’s grasslands between 1982and 1999[J].Global Biogeochemical Cycles,2007,21:B2002
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