驻马店市1958～2011年降水序列变化特征分析
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摘要
掌握区域降水序列变化特征,对落实水资源管理工作、保障工农业生产具有重要意义。基于驻马店市1958～2011年逐月降水资料,借助线性回归方程法、距平分析法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、5年滑动均值法、Morlet小波分析法研究了驻马店市年、季节降水变化趋势、丰枯性及周期特征。结果表明:驻马店市年、春、夏、秋、冬季降水依次以-1.8mm/10a、-6.6mm/10a、13.1mm/10a、-10.8mm/10a、1.6mm/10a的倾向率呈不显著的线性变化;年、各季降水依次处于偏枯、偏丰、偏枯、偏枯和偏枯期;年降水主周期为22a,次周期为2a、4a和8a,春季降水主周期为9a,次周期为5a和18a,夏季降水主周期为23a,次周期为2a和7a,秋季降水主周期为17a,次周期为5a,冬季降水主周期为13a,次周期为2a和5a。总体上,驻马店市年、各季节降水有着明显趋势特征、丰枯性和周期特征,研究结果可为指导区域内水资源规划与管理工作提供一定的参考。
It is significant to understand the change characteristics of regional precipitation series for implementing water resources management and supporting industrial and agricultural production.The change trends,high flow and low flow characteristics and periodicity of annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation in Zhumadian City were analyzed using the linear regression equation method,anomaly analysis method,Mann-Kendall trend test method,5-year sliding mean method and Morlet wavelet analysis method,based on the monthly precipitation data from 1958 to 2011.The results show that at present,the annual precipitation,spring precipitation,summer precipitation,autumn precipitation and winter precipitation are changing with non-distinctive linear tendency ratio of-1.8 mm/10 a,-6.6 mm/10 a,13.1 mm/10 a,-10.8 mm/10 a and 1.6 mm/10 a,and the annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation of Zhumadian City are in the high flow and low flow periods.Meanwhile,the main period of annual precipitation is22 years and secondary periods of annual precipitation are 2 years,4 years and 8 years;the main periods of spring precipitation is9 years and the secondary periods are 5 years and 18 years;the main period of summer precipitation is 23 years and the secondary period,are 2 years and 7 years;the main period of autumn precipitation is 17 years and the secondary periods are 5 years and 13 years;and the main period of winter precipitation is 13 years and secondary period are 2 years and 15 years.
It is significant to understand the change characteristics of regional precipitation series for implementing water resources management and supporting industrial and agricultural production.The change trends,high flow and low flow characteristics and periodicity of annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation in Zhumadian City were analyzed using the linear regression equation method,anomaly analysis method,Mann-Kendall trend test method,5-year sliding mean method and Morlet wavelet analysis method,based on the monthly precipitation data from 1958 to 2011.The results show that at present,the annual precipitation,spring precipitation,summer precipitation,autumn precipitation and winter precipitation are changing with non-distinctive linear tendency ratio of-1.8 mm/10 a,-6.6 mm/10 a,13.1 mm/10 a,-10.8 mm/10 a and 1.6 mm/10 a,and the annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation of Zhumadian City are in the high flow and low flow periods.Meanwhile,the main period of annual precipitation is22 years and secondary periods of annual precipitation are 2 years,4 years and 8 years;the main periods of spring precipitation is9 years and the secondary periods are 5 years and 18 years;the main period of summer precipitation is 23 years and the secondary period,are 2 years and 7 years;the main period of autumn precipitation is 17 years and the secondary periods are 5 years and 13 years;and the main period of winter precipitation is 13 years and secondary period are 2 years and 15 years.
引文
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[2]ZHANG Junbo,SHANG Kezheng,WANG Shigong,et al.Analysis on the climate change characteristics in Zhumadian in recent 50years[J].Meteorological and Environmental Research,2010,1(8):31-35.
[3]陈松,袁伟,陈天锡.驻马店市酸雨变化特征及影响因素分析讨论[J].大气科学研究与应用,2014,(1):105-112.(CHEN Song,YUAN Wei,CHEN Tianxi.The change characteristics and influencing factor analysis of Zhumadian acid rain[J].Atmospheric Science Research and Application,2014,(1):105-112.(in Chinese))
[4]王志良,曹蕾,李彬彬.R语言在降水极值统计分析中的应用[J].人民黄河,2012,34(5):22-24.(WANG Zhiliang,CAO Lei,LI Binbin.Application of R language in statistical analysis for precipitation extremes[J].Yellow River,2012,34(5):22-24.(in Chinese))
[5]李德岭,焦二虎,王慧真.驻马店市区域地下水位下降原因分析及对策[J].河南水利与南水北调,2008,(10):19-20.(LI Deling.JIAOErhu,WANG Huizhen.Analysis and countermeasures of groundwater level drop in Zhumadian city[J].Henan Water Conservancy and South-North Water Transfers,2008,(10):19-20.(in Chinese))
[6]陈永林,谢炳庚,曹思沁.近61年来赣州降水量变化特征及趋势[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014,12(5):104-108.(CHEN Yonglin,XIE Binggeng,CAO Siqin.Variation characteristics and trend analysis of precipitation in Ganzhou in recent 61 years[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2014,12(5):104-108.(in Chinese))
[7]张剑明,黎祖贤,章新平,等.湖南省近46年来降水时空分布特征及趋势分析[J].水文,2009,29(4):73-78.(ZHANG Jianming,LI Zuxian,ZHANG Xinping,et al.Precipitation spatio-temporal distribution characteristics and trend change in Hunan province from 1960to 2005[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2009,29(4):73-78.(in Chinese))
[8]李洋,魏晓妹,孙艳伟.石羊河流域水文要素变化特征分析[J].水文,2007,27(3):85-88.(LI Yang,WEI Xiaomei,SUN Yanwei.Analysis of the variety characteristics of hydrologic factors in Shiyang River basin[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2007,27(3):85-88.(in Chinese))
[9]陆建宇,陆宝宏,朱从飞,等.沂河流域天然径流变化规律分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2014,(7):67-71.(LU Jianyu,LU Baohong, ZHU Congfei,et al.An analysis of the variation of natural runoff at the Yihe River basin[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2014,(7):67-71.(in Chinese))
[10]王安琪,高玉琴,蔡涛.大凌河流域朝阳地区1955-2014年降水趋势变化及突变分析[J].水文,2017,37(5):92-96.(WANG Anqi,GAO Yuqin,CAI Tao.Analysis of precipitation variation trend in Chaoyang area of Dalinghe River basin[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2017,37(5):92-96.(in Chinese))
[11]李淼,夏军,陈社明,等.北京地区近300年降水变化的小波分析[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(6):1001-1011.(LI Miao,XIA Jun,CHEN Sheming,et al.Wavelet analysis of rainfall variation in the Yellow River basin[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(6):1001-1011.(in Chinese))
[12]贾宪,沈冰.近61年西安市主要气象因素变化趋势研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2014,25(1):48-51.(JIA Xian,SHEN Bing.Study on change trend of meteorological elements in Xi'an over past 61years[J].Journal of Water Resources&Water Engineering,2014,25(1):48-51.(in Chinese))
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