基于主成分分析的安徽省汛期降水空间聚类研究

详细信息    查看全文 | 推荐本文 |

英文篇名：Study on the Regional Division of Anhui Province based on Principal Component Analysis and Clustering 作者：王雅燕 英文作者：Wang Yayan;School of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology; 关键词：区域划分 ; 主成分分析 ; 系统聚类 ; 汛期降水 ; 安徽省 英文关键词：Region division;;Method of principal component analysis;;Hierarchical cluster method;;Precipitation during flood season;;Anhui province 中文刊名：安徽农学通报 英文刊名：Anhui Agricultural Science Bulletin 机构：合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院; 出版日期：2019-06-15 出版单位：安徽农学通报 年：2019 期：11 语种：中文; 页：163-170 页数：8 CN：34-1148/S ISSN：1007-7731 分类号：P426.616

摘要

基于安徽省15个雨量站1957—2016年的日降水数据,利用主成分分析和系统聚类相结合的技术,对安徽省汛期降水的时空特征进行了分析。结果表明:根据汛期降水量,安徽省可划分为以下4类区域,分别为淮北、淮河沿岸、江淮及江南区域,对应的多年平均汛期降水量分别为591.6、617.0、695.0和883.2mm,且具有淮北少于淮河沿岸,淮河沿岸少于江淮,江淮少于江南的地带性分布规律。淮北和淮河沿岸年汛期降水量无突变,江淮和江南的突变点分别在1968和2007年,且除淮北区域年汛期降水量有轻微的下降趋势外,其他3类区域均有明显增加的趋势。淮北区域汛期降水量主要受10a、4a左右的周期波动影响,淮河沿岸主要受14a、10a、18a左右的周期波动影响,淮河沿岸主要受23a、10a、4a左右的周期波动影响,淮河沿岸主要受28a、5a、10a、13a左右的周期波动影响。
        Based on the daily precipitation data of 15 meteorological stations in Anhui Province in 1957—2016, the field of precipitation during flood season in Anhui Province was divided into regions. The results show that:Anhui Province was divided into four regions by principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering method, namely the region north of Huaihe River, the region near Huaihe River, the region between Yangtze River and Huaihe River,and the region south of Yangtze River. And the precipitation during flood season of the region north of Huaihe River was 591.6mm which was less than 617.0mm of the region near Huaihe River, and less than 695.0mm of the region between Yangtze River and Huaihe River, and less than 883.2mm of the region south of Yangtze River. The mutation years of precipitation during flood season of the region between the Huaihe River and the Yangtze River and the region south of the Yangtze River in Anhui Province were 1968 and 2007, and there was a significant increase trend in the other three kinds of regions except the region north of Huaihe River. And the Morlet wavelet analysis results show that the precipitation during flood season of the region north of Huaihe River is mainly affected by the periodic fluctuations of 10a and 4a, the precipitation during flood season of the region near Huaihe River is mainly affected by the periodic fluctuations of 14a, 10a and 18a, the precipitation during flood season of the region between Yangtze River and Huaihe River is mainly affected by the periodic fluctuations of 23a, 10a and 4a, the precipitation during flood season of the region south of Yangtze River is mainly affected by the periodic fluctuations of 28a, 5a, 10a and 13a.

引文

[1]王佳,周玉良,周平,等.基于集对分析的安徽省梅雨期降水空间特征研究[J].水电能源科学,2018,36(11):1-4.
    [2]陈晓宏,刘德地,王兆礼.降水空间分布模式识别[J].水利学报,2006,37(6):711-716.
    [3]赵丹,张叶晖,刘俊杰.淮河流域近58年降水特征分析[J].水电能源科学,2018,36(11):9-13.
    [4]石军,何健,潘晓春,等.江苏省极端最高气温的时空变化与分区研究[J].水电能源科学,2017,35(10):4-7.
    [5]杜良敏,柯宗建,刘长征,等.基于聚类分区的中国夏季降水预测模型[J].气象,2016,42(1):89-96.
    [6]常文娟,梁忠民,马海波.基于主成分分析的干旱综合指标构建及其应用[J].水文,2017,37(1):33-38,82.
    [7]孙倩倩,刘晶淼.基于聚类分析的中国东北地区气温和降水时空变化特征[J].气象与环境学报,2014,30(3):59-65.
    [8]胡姗姗,刘倪,贾天山,等.安徽汛期淮北区域性暴雨大尺度环流特征及成因分析[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(34):144-152.
    [9]万新宇,包为民,荆艳东,等.基于主成分分析的洪水相似性研究[J].水电能源科学,2007,25(5):36-39.
    [10]吴凤燕,关洪林.湖北省干旱分区及各区易旱类型研究[J].中国水利,2011(11):33-35.
    [11]王栋,梁忠民,王靖,等.基于主成分聚类分析的云南省干旱自然分区[J].南水北调与水利科技,2017,15(2):15-21,28.
    [12]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第2版)[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:63-65.
    [13]吕继强,莫淑红,沈冰.新疆和田降雨小波分析和非趋势波动分析[J].水电能源科学,2008,26(5):7-9.
    [14]王晓琳.基于小波分析的邯郸山区水文特性分析与预测[D].邯郸:河北工程大学,2012.