贸易自由化还是污染自由化?——我国环境污染的地区效应分析
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摘要
近年来我国对外贸易发展不断加快,但伴随而来的环境污染问题也越来越严重。考虑到污染排放的动态持续变化特征,本文利用动态面板模型对贸易自由化对环境污染的规模效应、结构效应和技术效应进行量化分析。结果表明,贸易自由化在一定程度上会加剧环境污染程度。其中,结构效应为正,资本密集度提高会引起污染排放增加的负面效应;当人均收入较低时规模效应大于技术效应,两者的合效应对污染产生正向影响;当人均收入较高时规模效应小于技术效应,两者的合效应对污染产生负向影响。进一步检验贸易自由化对环境污染是否存在地区差异,发现贸易自由化有利于改善东部地区的环境质量,但会导致中西部地区的污染排放量增加。政府应该因地制宜,制定更有针对性的政策方案,东部地区进一步鼓励发展环保技术,吸收和借鉴国外环境友好型生产技术;中西部地区在承接产业转移过程中应合理规划区域内产业布局,实现产业结构合理化,同时进行合理的招商引资,防止进一步恶化生态环境。
In recent years, China's foreign trade has been developing rapidly, but the following environmental pollution has been becoming more and more serious. Considering the dynamic and continuously changing characteristics of emissions, this paper applies the dynamic panel model to quantify the scale, composition and technological effects of trade liberalization on environmental pollution. The results show that trade liberalization can aggravate environmental pollution. Specifically, the composition effect is positive, and the increase of capital intensity causes the negative effect of increasing pollution emissions; when the per capita income is low, and scale effect is greater than technological effect, the total effect of both has a positive impact on pollution; when the per capita income is high, and scale effect is smaller than technological effect, the total effect of both has a negative impact on pollution. We further examine whether there are regional differences in the effects of trade liberalization on environmental pollution, and find that trade liberalization can improve the environmental quality of the eastern regions, but worsen environmental pollution in the central and western regions. The government should make more targeted policies and programs according to the local conditions. The eastern region should encourage the development of environmental protection technologies and absorb foreign environmentally friendly production technologies; the central and western regions should make rational plan for the industrial distribution in the process of industrial transfer to make the industrial structure sound, and carry out reasonable investment invitation to prevent further deterioration of the ecological environment.
In recent years, China's foreign trade has been developing rapidly, but the following environmental pollution has been becoming more and more serious. Considering the dynamic and continuously changing characteristics of emissions, this paper applies the dynamic panel model to quantify the scale, composition and technological effects of trade liberalization on environmental pollution. The results show that trade liberalization can aggravate environmental pollution. Specifically, the composition effect is positive, and the increase of capital intensity causes the negative effect of increasing pollution emissions; when the per capita income is low, and scale effect is greater than technological effect, the total effect of both has a positive impact on pollution; when the per capita income is high, and scale effect is smaller than technological effect, the total effect of both has a negative impact on pollution. We further examine whether there are regional differences in the effects of trade liberalization on environmental pollution, and find that trade liberalization can improve the environmental quality of the eastern regions, but worsen environmental pollution in the central and western regions. The government should make more targeted policies and programs according to the local conditions. The eastern region should encourage the development of environmental protection technologies and absorb foreign environmentally friendly production technologies; the central and western regions should make rational plan for the industrial distribution in the process of industrial transfer to make the industrial structure sound, and carry out reasonable investment invitation to prevent further deterioration of the ecological environment.
引文
[1] 仪珊珊,张瀚元,王昊天.贸易自由化与出口产品转换:以中国-东盟自贸区为例[J].世界经济研究,2018,(08):28-36,87,135.
[2] Le T.H.,Chang Y.,Park D.Trade openness and environmental quality:International evidence.Energy Policy,2016,92,45-55.
[3] Lin Faqin.Trade openness and air pollution:City-level empirical evidence from China.China Economic Review,2017,45,78-88.
[4] Mao Xiyan,He Canfei.A trade-related pollution trap for economies in transition?Evidence from China.Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,200:781-790.
[5] 沈利生,唐志.对外贸易对我国污染排放的影响——以二氧化硫排放为例[J].管理世界,2008,(06):21-29,187.
[6] 陈诗一.节能减排与中国工业的双赢发展:2009—2049[J].经济研究,2010,45(03):129-143.
[7] 杨世迪,韩先锋.贸易自由化的绿色生产率增长效应及其约束机制——基于中国省际面板数据的门槛回归分析[J].经济科学,2016(04):65-77.
[8] Grossman G.M.,Krueger A.B.Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement.In:Barber,P.(Ed.),The US-Mexico Free Trade Agreement:MIT Press,1993:13-56.
[9] Shen Junyi.Trade liberalization and environmental degradation in China.Applied Economics,2008,40(8):997-1004.
[10] 李小平,卢现祥.国际贸易、污染产业转移和中国工业CO2排放[J].经济研究,2010,45(01):15-26.
[11] Andersson Fredrik N.G.International trade and carbon emissions:The role of Chinese institutional and policy reforms.Journal of Environmental Management,2018,205,29-39.
[12] Aklin Micha l.Re-exploring the trade and environment nexus through the diffusion of pollution.Environmental and Resource Economics,2016,64(4),663-682.
[13] Copeland B.R.,Taylor M.S.North-south Trade and the Environment.Quarterly Journal of Economics,1994(109):755-787.
[14] Chichilnisky Graciela.North-South Trade and the Global Environment.American Economic Review,1994,84(4):851-874.
[15] Dean Judith M.Does trade liberalization harm the environment?A new test.Canadian Journal of Economics,2002,35(04):819-842.
[16] 王婉如,樊勇.贸易开放度、跨境污染与环境税政策[J].税务与经济,2017,(05):60-65.
[17] 洪丽明,吕小锋.贸易自由化、南北异质性与战略性环境政策[J].世界经济,2017,40(07):78-101.
[18] Antweiler W.,Copeland B.,Taylor,M.Is Free Trade Good for the Environment?American Economic Review,2001,91:877-908.
[19] Copeland B.R.,Taylor M.S.Trade and transboundary pollution.American Economic Review,1995,716-737.
[20] McAusland C.Trade,Politics,and the Environment:Tailpipe vs.Smokestack.Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2001,55(1):52-71.
[21] Beladi H.,Oladi R.Does trade liberalization increase global pollution?Resource & Energy Economics,2011,33(1):172-178.
[22] 徐圆,陈亚丽.国际贸易的环境技术效应——基于技术溢出视角的研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(01):148-156.
[23] Tsai P.Is Trade Liberalization Harmful to the Environment?An Alternative View.Journal of Economic Studies,1999,26(3):201-209.
[24] 占华,于津平.贸易开放对我国环境污染影响效应的实证检验——基于我国省际动态面板数据的系统GMM分析[J].当代经济科学,2015,37(01):39-46,125-126.
[25] Arellano M.,Bond S.Some Tests of Specification of Panel Data:Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equation.Review of Economic Study,1991,58:277-297.
[26] Blundell R.,Bond S.Initial Condition and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models.Journal of Econometrics,1998,87:111-143.
[27] 沈能,刘凤朝.高强度的环境规制真能促进技术创新吗?基于“波特假说”的再检验[J].中国软科学,2012,(4):49-59.
[28] Ren Shenggang,Yuan Baolong,Ma Xie,Chen Xiaohong.The impact of international trade on China's industrial carbon emissions since its entry into WTO.Energy Policy,2014,69:624-634.
(1)数据来源:中国海关统计。
(2)数据来源:《2017中国生态环境状况公报》。
[2] Le T.H.,Chang Y.,Park D.Trade openness and environmental quality:International evidence.Energy Policy,2016,92,45-55.
[3] Lin Faqin.Trade openness and air pollution:City-level empirical evidence from China.China Economic Review,2017,45,78-88.
[4] Mao Xiyan,He Canfei.A trade-related pollution trap for economies in transition?Evidence from China.Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,200:781-790.
[5] 沈利生,唐志.对外贸易对我国污染排放的影响——以二氧化硫排放为例[J].管理世界,2008,(06):21-29,187.
[6] 陈诗一.节能减排与中国工业的双赢发展:2009—2049[J].经济研究,2010,45(03):129-143.
[7] 杨世迪,韩先锋.贸易自由化的绿色生产率增长效应及其约束机制——基于中国省际面板数据的门槛回归分析[J].经济科学,2016(04):65-77.
[8] Grossman G.M.,Krueger A.B.Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement.In:Barber,P.(Ed.),The US-Mexico Free Trade Agreement:MIT Press,1993:13-56.
[9] Shen Junyi.Trade liberalization and environmental degradation in China.Applied Economics,2008,40(8):997-1004.
[10] 李小平,卢现祥.国际贸易、污染产业转移和中国工业CO2排放[J].经济研究,2010,45(01):15-26.
[11] Andersson Fredrik N.G.International trade and carbon emissions:The role of Chinese institutional and policy reforms.Journal of Environmental Management,2018,205,29-39.
[12] Aklin Micha l.Re-exploring the trade and environment nexus through the diffusion of pollution.Environmental and Resource Economics,2016,64(4),663-682.
[13] Copeland B.R.,Taylor M.S.North-south Trade and the Environment.Quarterly Journal of Economics,1994(109):755-787.
[14] Chichilnisky Graciela.North-South Trade and the Global Environment.American Economic Review,1994,84(4):851-874.
[15] Dean Judith M.Does trade liberalization harm the environment?A new test.Canadian Journal of Economics,2002,35(04):819-842.
[16] 王婉如,樊勇.贸易开放度、跨境污染与环境税政策[J].税务与经济,2017,(05):60-65.
[17] 洪丽明,吕小锋.贸易自由化、南北异质性与战略性环境政策[J].世界经济,2017,40(07):78-101.
[18] Antweiler W.,Copeland B.,Taylor,M.Is Free Trade Good for the Environment?American Economic Review,2001,91:877-908.
[19] Copeland B.R.,Taylor M.S.Trade and transboundary pollution.American Economic Review,1995,716-737.
[20] McAusland C.Trade,Politics,and the Environment:Tailpipe vs.Smokestack.Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2001,55(1):52-71.
[21] Beladi H.,Oladi R.Does trade liberalization increase global pollution?Resource & Energy Economics,2011,33(1):172-178.
[22] 徐圆,陈亚丽.国际贸易的环境技术效应——基于技术溢出视角的研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(01):148-156.
[23] Tsai P.Is Trade Liberalization Harmful to the Environment?An Alternative View.Journal of Economic Studies,1999,26(3):201-209.
[24] 占华,于津平.贸易开放对我国环境污染影响效应的实证检验——基于我国省际动态面板数据的系统GMM分析[J].当代经济科学,2015,37(01):39-46,125-126.
[25] Arellano M.,Bond S.Some Tests of Specification of Panel Data:Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equation.Review of Economic Study,1991,58:277-297.
[26] Blundell R.,Bond S.Initial Condition and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models.Journal of Econometrics,1998,87:111-143.
[27] 沈能,刘凤朝.高强度的环境规制真能促进技术创新吗?基于“波特假说”的再检验[J].中国软科学,2012,(4):49-59.
[28] Ren Shenggang,Yuan Baolong,Ma Xie,Chen Xiaohong.The impact of international trade on China's industrial carbon emissions since its entry into WTO.Energy Policy,2014,69:624-634.
(1)数据来源:中国海关统计。
(2)数据来源:《2017中国生态环境状况公报》。
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