基于高时空分辨率降水预报产品的城市内涝预警研究
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摘要
使用高精度高程、路网、河网、排水管网、工程设施以及防洪调度等数据,将各类空间信息剖分为7 287个无结构不规则网格及相应通道,并针对城市立体化交通设施,对模型进行调参,最终构建了合肥城市暴雨内涝数值模型。采用城市地表、明渠河道、排水管网等主要水文水动力学物理过程,模拟积水深度及演进情况。在此基础上,将短时临近预报系统INCA (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis)的降水估测产品和降水预报产品(空间分辨率1 km,时间分辨率1 h)作为驱动条件,得到未来6 h逐时的积水深度预报及内涝风险预警产品。研究结果表明:城市内涝模型对积水深度及积水演进过程的模拟和实况较为吻合,体现出对河网、路网、社区积水良好的模拟能力。对2017年8月25日合肥西南部严重内涝过程的检验表明,积水深度预报效果很大程度上依赖INCA的降水预报质量,对于短时强降水,INCA在临近时效预报效果相对较好,因此积水深度预报产品可在临近时效内较为准确的预报积水区域以及积水变化过程。可见利用高时空分辨率降水预报产品和城市暴雨内涝数值模型耦合制作内涝风险预警,可有效增加内涝灾害的预见期,为城市防涝减灾提供科学参考。
High resolution elevation data, road network, river network, drainage network, engineering facilities and flood control countermeasures in Hefei city were integrated and divided into 7 287 unstructured irregular grids and corresponding channels. By means of adjusting the parameters according to the urban three-dimensional traffic facilities, Hefei Urban Waterlogging Numerical Model was constructed. The waterlogging depth and evolution of water accumulation were simulated according to the main hydro-hydrodynamic physical processes in urban surface, open channel and drainage network. Furthermore the quantitative precipitation evaluation and forecast products of INCA(Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis) were utilized to drive this model and obtained 1-6 hours waterlogging depth prediction and risk early warning products with one-hour interval. The results show that the simulations of both water depth and evolution of water accumulation are in good agreement with the observations. Examination of the severe waterlogging event in southwestern Hefei on August 25, 2017 shows that the accuracy of water depth forecast largely depends on the quality of precipitation forecast by INCA. For short-term heavy rainfall, INCA has a relatively good performance in nowcasting. Therefore, the product could more accurately predict the falling area and the evolution of waterlogging when the leading time is less than 2 hours. It was proved that waterlogging risk early warning can effectively prolong the lead time of waterlogging disaster and provide a scientific reference for urban waterlogging prevention and mitigation by using high spatial and temporal resolution precipitation forecast products coupled with urban rainstorm waterlogging numerical model.
High resolution elevation data, road network, river network, drainage network, engineering facilities and flood control countermeasures in Hefei city were integrated and divided into 7 287 unstructured irregular grids and corresponding channels. By means of adjusting the parameters according to the urban three-dimensional traffic facilities, Hefei Urban Waterlogging Numerical Model was constructed. The waterlogging depth and evolution of water accumulation were simulated according to the main hydro-hydrodynamic physical processes in urban surface, open channel and drainage network. Furthermore the quantitative precipitation evaluation and forecast products of INCA(Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis) were utilized to drive this model and obtained 1-6 hours waterlogging depth prediction and risk early warning products with one-hour interval. The results show that the simulations of both water depth and evolution of water accumulation are in good agreement with the observations. Examination of the severe waterlogging event in southwestern Hefei on August 25, 2017 shows that the accuracy of water depth forecast largely depends on the quality of precipitation forecast by INCA. For short-term heavy rainfall, INCA has a relatively good performance in nowcasting. Therefore, the product could more accurately predict the falling area and the evolution of waterlogging when the leading time is less than 2 hours. It was proved that waterlogging risk early warning can effectively prolong the lead time of waterlogging disaster and provide a scientific reference for urban waterlogging prevention and mitigation by using high spatial and temporal resolution precipitation forecast products coupled with urban rainstorm waterlogging numerical model.
引文
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刘伟杰,周良,张善发,等.2013.合肥市城市排水(雨水)防涝综合规划[R].
陆敏,刘敏,权瑞松,等.2010.上海暴雨灾害的系统特征与脆弱性分析[J].华东师范大学学报(自然科学版),2010(2):9-15
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吴持恭.1982.水力学(上册)[M].北京:高等教育出版社:361
史军,穆海振,杨涵洧,等.上海中心城区暴雨内涝阈值研究[J].暴雨灾害,2016,35(4):344-350
解以扬,韩素芹,由立宏,等.2004.天津市暴雨内涝灾害风险分析[J].气象科学,24(3):342-349
解以扬,李大鸣,李培彦,等.2005.城市暴雨内涝数学模型的研究与应用[J].水科学进展,16(3):384-390
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殷杰,尹占娥,王军,等.2009.基于GIS的城市社区暴雨内涝灾害风险评估[J].地理与地理信息科学,25(6):92-95
尹占娥,暴丽杰,殷杰.2011.基于GIS的上海浦东暴雨内涝灾害脆弱性研究[J].自然灾害学报,20(2):29-35
赵思健,陈志远,熊利亚.2004.利用空间分析建立简化的城市内涝模型[J].自然灾害学报,13(6):8-14
Changnon S A.1985.Research agenda for floods to solve policy failure[J].Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management,111(1):1 553-1 563
Haiden T,Kann A,Wittmann C,et al.2011.The Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis(INCA)System and its validation over the eastern Alpine region[J].Weather and Forecasting,26(4):166-182
Li D M,Zhang H P,Li B F,et al.2004.Basic theory and mathematical modeling of urban rainstorm waterlogging[J].Journal of Hydrodynamics,16(1):17-27
Nassir E J,Rousselle J.1987.A flood damage model for flood plain studies[J].Water Resources Bulletin,23(2):179-187
Nix S T,Tsay T K.1988.Alternative strategies for stormwater detention[J].Water Resources Bulletin,24(3):609-614
Wang Y,Mautner I,Kann A,et al.2017.Integrating nowcasting with crisis management and risk prevention in a transnational and interdisciplinary framework[J].Meteorologische Zeitschrift,26(5):459-473
陈波,冯光柳.2008.武汉城市强降水内涝仿真模拟系统研制[J].暴雨灾害,27(4):330-333
陈靖,解以扬,东高红,等.2015.雷达雨量计联合估算降水在城市内涝模型中的应用[J].气象科技,43(5):866-873
董欣,陈吉宁,赵冬泉.2006.SWMM模型在城市排水系统规划中的应用[J].给水排水,32(5):106-109
段丽瑶,解以扬,陈靖,等.2014.基于城市内涝仿真模型的天津风暴潮灾害评估[J].应用气象学报,25(3):354-359
郝莹,鲁俊,温华洋,等.2012.安徽省近49年短历时强降水时间趋势变化特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,21(9):1 143-1 147
洪国平,万君,柳晶辉,等.2018.武汉城区短历时暴雨内涝数值模拟研究[J].暴雨灾害,37(1):83-89
刘伟杰,周良,张善发,等.2013.合肥市城市排水(雨水)防涝综合规划[R].
陆敏,刘敏,权瑞松,等.2010.上海暴雨灾害的系统特征与脆弱性分析[J].华东师范大学学报(自然科学版),2010(2):9-15
王会军,张颖,郎咸梅,2010.论短期气候预测的对象问题[J].气候与环境研究,15(3):225-228
吴持恭.1982.水力学(上册)[M].北京:高等教育出版社:361
史军,穆海振,杨涵洧,等.上海中心城区暴雨内涝阈值研究[J].暴雨灾害,2016,35(4):344-350
解以扬,韩素芹,由立宏,等.2004.天津市暴雨内涝灾害风险分析[J].气象科学,24(3):342-349
解以扬,李大鸣,李培彦,等.2005.城市暴雨内涝数学模型的研究与应用[J].水科学进展,16(3):384-390
徐向阳,刘俊,郝庆庆等.2003.城市暴雨积水过程的模拟[J].水科学进展,14(2):193-196
殷杰,尹占娥,王军,等.2009.基于GIS的城市社区暴雨内涝灾害风险评估[J].地理与地理信息科学,25(6):92-95
尹占娥,暴丽杰,殷杰.2011.基于GIS的上海浦东暴雨内涝灾害脆弱性研究[J].自然灾害学报,20(2):29-35
赵思健,陈志远,熊利亚.2004.利用空间分析建立简化的城市内涝模型[J].自然灾害学报,13(6):8-14
Changnon S A.1985.Research agenda for floods to solve policy failure[J].Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management,111(1):1 553-1 563
Haiden T,Kann A,Wittmann C,et al.2011.The Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis(INCA)System and its validation over the eastern Alpine region[J].Weather and Forecasting,26(4):166-182
Li D M,Zhang H P,Li B F,et al.2004.Basic theory and mathematical modeling of urban rainstorm waterlogging[J].Journal of Hydrodynamics,16(1):17-27
Nassir E J,Rousselle J.1987.A flood damage model for flood plain studies[J].Water Resources Bulletin,23(2):179-187
Nix S T,Tsay T K.1988.Alternative strategies for stormwater detention[J].Water Resources Bulletin,24(3):609-614
Wang Y,Mautner I,Kann A,et al.2017.Integrating nowcasting with crisis management and risk prevention in a transnational and interdisciplinary framework[J].Meteorologische Zeitschrift,26(5):459-473
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