中国水坝安全状况分析与研究
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摘要
综合国际和国内水电站建设情况,从历史溃坝资料、现行安全标准和目前水电站大坝存在的安全隐患等方面,对比分析了我国水坝的安全状况。通过溃坝概率分析,提出了溃坝风险防范的重点是中低坝,而提升流域安全水平的重点是高坝大库。最后提出建立运行期安全鉴定和重大技术问题跟踪评价制度,开展泄洪设施的隐患排查,推进极端气候条件下大坝安全性研究、特高坝工作性态和大坝退役机制基础性研究,加快推动流域风险管理和大坝安全管理相关立法的建议。
By the data of international and domestic hydropower stations,the safety status of dams in China is compared andanalyzed from historical dam failure,current safety standards and potential risk for dam safety. Based on the analysis of damfailure probability,it is proposed that the dam failure risk of middle and low dams are severe,while the safety of cascadereservoirs in a river basin is determined by high dams and large reservoirs. Finally,it is also proposed to establish safetyassessment system for the dams during operation period and tracking assessment system for important technological issues,carryout investigations on hidden dangers of flood discharge facilities,promote researches on dam safety responding to extremeclimatic,operating state of extra-high dams and retirement of old dams,accelerate river basin risk management and promote thelegislation of dam safety management.
By the data of international and domestic hydropower stations,the safety status of dams in China is compared andanalyzed from historical dam failure,current safety standards and potential risk for dam safety. Based on the analysis of damfailure probability,it is proposed that the dam failure risk of middle and low dams are severe,while the safety of cascadereservoirs in a river basin is determined by high dams and large reservoirs. Finally,it is also proposed to establish safetyassessment system for the dams during operation period and tracking assessment system for important technological issues,carryout investigations on hidden dangers of flood discharge facilities,promote researches on dam safety responding to extremeclimatic,operating state of extra-high dams and retirement of old dams,accelerate river basin risk management and promote thelegislation of dam safety management.
引文
[1]中华人民共和国水利部.2016年全国水利发展统计公报[EB/OL].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2017.http:∥www.mwr.gov.cn/sjtjgbslfztjgb/201710/t20171016_1002400.html
[2]中国电力企业联合会.2017年全国电力工业统计快报数据一览表[DB/OL].http:∥www.cec.org.cn/guihuayutongji/tongjxinxi/niandushuju/2018-02-05/177726.html.
[3]中国工程院三峡工程阶段性评估项目组.三峡工程阶段性评估报告[R].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2010.
[4]GB 50201-2014防洪标准[S].
[5]许银山,冯宝飞,段唯鑫,等.金沙江中游梯级水库防洪库容预留期联合调度控制指标初步分析[C]∥中国水利信息化与数字水利技术论坛论文集,2014.
[6]Federal Emergency Management Agency.Federal Guidelines for dam safety:Hazard potential classification system for dams[S].
[7]Federal Emergency Management Agency.Federal guidelines for dam safety:Selecting and accommodating inflow design floods for dams[S].
[8]U.S.Corps of Engineering.Recommended guidelines for safety inspection of dams(ER 1110-2-106)[S].
[9]Federal Emergency Management Agency.Federal guidelines for dam safety:Earthquake analyses and design of dams[S].
[10]李瓒,郑建波.胡佛大体积重力拱坝枢纽设计特点[M]∥李瓒,陈飞,郑建波,等.特高拱坝枢纽分析与重点问题研究.北京:中国电力出版社,2004:3-48.
[2]中国电力企业联合会.2017年全国电力工业统计快报数据一览表[DB/OL].http:∥www.cec.org.cn/guihuayutongji/tongjxinxi/niandushuju/2018-02-05/177726.html.
[3]中国工程院三峡工程阶段性评估项目组.三峡工程阶段性评估报告[R].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2010.
[4]GB 50201-2014防洪标准[S].
[5]许银山,冯宝飞,段唯鑫,等.金沙江中游梯级水库防洪库容预留期联合调度控制指标初步分析[C]∥中国水利信息化与数字水利技术论坛论文集,2014.
[6]Federal Emergency Management Agency.Federal Guidelines for dam safety:Hazard potential classification system for dams[S].
[7]Federal Emergency Management Agency.Federal guidelines for dam safety:Selecting and accommodating inflow design floods for dams[S].
[8]U.S.Corps of Engineering.Recommended guidelines for safety inspection of dams(ER 1110-2-106)[S].
[9]Federal Emergency Management Agency.Federal guidelines for dam safety:Earthquake analyses and design of dams[S].
[10]李瓒,郑建波.胡佛大体积重力拱坝枢纽设计特点[M]∥李瓒,陈飞,郑建波,等.特高拱坝枢纽分析与重点问题研究.北京:中国电力出版社,2004:3-48.
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