汶川地震高烈度区崩滑流灾害区域预警
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摘要
本文提出了汶川地震高烈度区11县域(汶川、北川、绵竹、青川、茂县、都江堰、安县、什邡、彭州、平武和文县)地质灾害区域预警方法,包括发育度分布、潜势度区划与危险度区域预警。研究区地震后地质灾害类型由震前的滑坡、崩塌为主演变成泥石流为主,震后灾害数量是震前的8.7倍,地质灾害极高发育区分布面积204.32 km2,灾害点密度达到8.11起/km2,主要位于什邡、绵竹、安县、汶川及文县境内。基于地形坡度、坡向、高程、地貌、岩性、断裂构造、烈度区划、年均雨量、水系、人类工程活动(道路)及地质灾害发育度分区指数等11项因子,计算潜势度并划分为四个等级,极高潜势区面积占全区面积的4.17%,灾害点数占11县域灾害总数的44.15%,灾害点平均密度达到2.44起/km2,地质灾害极高、高潜势区呈线状、局部面状分布,在都江堰、彭州、什邡、绵竹、安县等地呈面状分布,在北川、平武、青川、文县等地呈条带状分布。将地震、汛期降雨和日降雨作为引发因子,基于潜势度评价,开展地质灾害危险度区域预警研究,地震引发地质灾害高危险度的地区主要集中在南部的汶川、都江堰、彭州、什邡、绵竹以及北部的青川、文县等地; 2013年汛期降雨引发地质灾害危险度高的地区集中在都江堰、绵竹、安县、北川、平武和文县等地; 2013年7月9日降雨引发地质灾害危险度高的地区集中在都江堰、彭州、什邡、绵竹和安县等,三种引发因子引发的实际灾害点与危险度预警的重点区域比较吻合,研究方法可以作为地震引发地质灾害预测、汛期(5～9月)地质灾害趋势预测和短临(1～3日)地质灾害区域预警提供科学支撑。
The regional early-warning methods for geological hazards were studied in 11 counties of Wenchuan earthquake high seismic intensity area(Wenchuan,Beichuan,Mianzhu,Qingchuan,Maoxian,Dujiangyan,Anxian,Shifang,Pengzhou,Pingwu and Wenxian).The research contents included developmental grade,potential grade and dangerous grade early warning.The types of geological hazard change from landslide and collapse before earthquake to debris flow after earthquake.The number of hazards after earthquake is 8.7 times before earthquake.The distribution area of high developmental grade zone is 204.32 km2,there were 8.11 hazards per square kilometer,and locating in Shifang,Mianzhu,Anxian,Wenxian,and Wenxian.The potential grade indexes of geo-hazards were worked out according to 11 assessment factors such as landform gradient,aspect,elevation,stratigraphic layers,topographic feature,fault structure,seismic intensity,average annual precipitation,river system,human engineering activities(roads) and developmental grade index,etc.The area of extremely high potential grade accounted for 4.17% of the total area.The number of hazard points accounted for 44.15% of the total hazards.There are 2.44 hazards per square kilometer.The areas of high potential grade were facial distribution and locally linear distribution.The early warning of dangerous grade included 3 factors,which were seismic activity,rainfall in flood season and daily precipitation.The high dangerous grade areas caused by the earthquake were mainly in Wenchuan,Dujiangyan,Pengzhou,Shifang,Mianzhu,Qingchuan and Wenxian,etc.The high dangerous grade areas caused by the rainfall in flood season of 2013 were Dujiangyan,Mianzhu,Anxian,Beichuan,Pingwu and Wenxian,etc.The high dangerous grade areas caused by the daily precipitation at July 9,2013 were Dujiangyan,Pengzhou,Shifang,Mianzhu and Anxian,etc.The actual hazard points of the 3 triggering factors were in good agreement with the key areas of the dangerous grade early warning.The research method in this paper can be used as a scientific support for geological hazard early warning triggered by earthquake,rainfall in flood season,and daily precipitation.
The regional early-warning methods for geological hazards were studied in 11 counties of Wenchuan earthquake high seismic intensity area(Wenchuan,Beichuan,Mianzhu,Qingchuan,Maoxian,Dujiangyan,Anxian,Shifang,Pengzhou,Pingwu and Wenxian).The research contents included developmental grade,potential grade and dangerous grade early warning.The types of geological hazard change from landslide and collapse before earthquake to debris flow after earthquake.The number of hazards after earthquake is 8.7 times before earthquake.The distribution area of high developmental grade zone is 204.32 km2,there were 8.11 hazards per square kilometer,and locating in Shifang,Mianzhu,Anxian,Wenxian,and Wenxian.The potential grade indexes of geo-hazards were worked out according to 11 assessment factors such as landform gradient,aspect,elevation,stratigraphic layers,topographic feature,fault structure,seismic intensity,average annual precipitation,river system,human engineering activities(roads) and developmental grade index,etc.The area of extremely high potential grade accounted for 4.17% of the total area.The number of hazard points accounted for 44.15% of the total hazards.There are 2.44 hazards per square kilometer.The areas of high potential grade were facial distribution and locally linear distribution.The early warning of dangerous grade included 3 factors,which were seismic activity,rainfall in flood season and daily precipitation.The high dangerous grade areas caused by the earthquake were mainly in Wenchuan,Dujiangyan,Pengzhou,Shifang,Mianzhu,Qingchuan and Wenxian,etc.The high dangerous grade areas caused by the rainfall in flood season of 2013 were Dujiangyan,Mianzhu,Anxian,Beichuan,Pingwu and Wenxian,etc.The high dangerous grade areas caused by the daily precipitation at July 9,2013 were Dujiangyan,Pengzhou,Shifang,Mianzhu and Anxian,etc.The actual hazard points of the 3 triggering factors were in good agreement with the key areas of the dangerous grade early warning.The research method in this paper can be used as a scientific support for geological hazard early warning triggered by earthquake,rainfall in flood season,and daily precipitation.
引文
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[14]中华人民共和国国土资源部.中国国土资源公报(2008-2017)[R].Ministry of Land and Resources of the People’s ofChina. China Land and Resource Bulletin(2008-2017)[R].
[15]刘传正,李铁锋,程凌鹏,等.区域地质灾害评价预警的递进分析理论与方法[J].水文地质工程地质,2004,31(4):1-9.LIU Chuanzheng,LI Tiefeng,CHENG Linpeng,et al.A method by to analyse four parameters forassessmentand early warning on the regional geohazards[J].Hydrogeology&Engineering Geology,2004,31(4):1-9.
[16]刘传正,刘艳辉,温铭生,等.中国地质灾害区域预警方法与应用[M].北京:地质出版社,2009.LIU Chuanzheng,LIU Yanhui,WEN Mingsheng,et al.Method and application of regional warning forgeohazards in China[M]. Beijing:GeologicalPublishing,2009.
[17]刘传正,刘艳辉,温铭生,等.中国地质灾害气象预警实践:2003-2012[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2015,26(1):1-8.LIU Chuanzheng,LIU Yanhui,WEN Mingsheng,etal. Early warning for regional geo-hazards during 2003-2012,China[J]. The Chinese Journal of GeologicalHazard and Control,2015,26(1):1-8.
[18]温铭生,方志伟,王阳谷.都江堰市五里坡特大滑坡灾害特征与致灾成因[J].现代地质,2015,29(2):448-453.WEN Mingsheng, FANG Zhiwei, WANG Yanggu.Characteristics and disaster causes of Wulipo landslidein dujiangyan city[J]. Eoscience,2015,29(2):448-453.
[2]黄润秋.汶川地震地质灾害后效应分析[J].工程地质学报,2011,19(2):145-151.HUANG Runqiu. After effect of geohazards induced bythe Wenchuan earthquake[J]. Journal of EngineeringGeology,2011,19(2):145-151.
[3]温铭生,陈红旗,张鸣之,等.四川茂县“6·24”特大滑坡特征与成因机制分析[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2017,28(3):1-7.WEN Mingsheng,CHEN Hongqi,ZHANG Mingzhi,etal. Characteristics and formation mechanism analysisof the“6·24”catastrophic landslide of the June 24thof 2017,at Maoxian,Sichuan[J]. The ChineseJournal of Geological Hazard and Control,2017,28(3):1-7.
[4]殷跃平,王文沛,张楠,等.强震区高位滑坡远程灾害特征研究—以四川茂县新磨滑坡为例[J].中国地质,2017,44(5):827-841.YIN Yueping,WANG Wenpei,ZHANG Nan,et al.Long runout geological disaster initiated by the ridge-top rockslide in a strong earthquake area:A casestudy of the Xinmo landslide in Maoxian County,Sichuan Province[J]. Geology in China,2017,44(5):827-841.
[5]刘传正,温铭生,刘艳辉,等.汶川地震区地质灾害成生规律研究[J].水文地质工程地质,2016,43(5):1-16.LIU Chuanzheng,WEN Mingsheng,LIU Yanhui,etal. Regional assessment on geological disasters in“5·12”Wenchuan seismic area,China[J]. Hydrogeologyand Engineering Geology,2016,43(5):1-16.
[6]唐川.汶川地震区暴雨滑坡泥石流活动趋势预测[J].山地学报,2010,28(3):341-349.TANG Chuan. Activity tendency prediction of rainfallinduced landslides and debris flows in the WenchuanEarthquake areas[J]. Journal of Mountain Science,2010,28(3):341-349.
[7]许强,李为乐.汶川地震诱发大型滑坡分布规律研究[J].工程地质学报,2010,18(6):818-826.XU Qiang, LI Weile. Distribution of large-scalelandslides induced by the Wenchuan earthquake[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2010,18(6):818-826.
[8] YIN Y P,WANG F W,SUN P. Landslide hazardstriggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake,Sichuan,China[J]. Landslides,2009,6(2):139-151.
[9] YIN Yueping,ZHENG Wanmo,LI Xiaochu,et al.Catastrophic landslides associated with the M8. 0Wenchuan earth-quake[J]. Bulletin of EngineeringGeology and the Environment,2011,70(1):15-32.
[10]刘惠军,陈倩,魏昌利,等.“5·12”大地震前后汶川县地质灾害发育研究[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2009,20(2):112-115.LIU Huijun,CHEN Qian,WEN Changli,et al. Theresearch of geological disasters in wenchuan countybefore and after the“5. 12”earthquake[J]. Journalof Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation,2009,20(2):112-115.
[11]张永双,姚鑫,郭长宝,等.龙门山地区震后泥石流灾害区域预警研究[J].西南交通大学学报,2016,51(5):1014-1023.ZHANG Yongshuang,YAO Xin,GUO Changbao,etal. Regional warning of debris flow hazards afterWenchuan 3arthquake in longmenshan Region[J].Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University,2016,51(5):1014-1023.
[12]中国地质环境监测院.汶川地震区重大地质灾害成生规律研究[R].北京:中国地质环境监测院,2015.China Institute of Geo-environment Monitoring.Research on the spatial-time distribution of mega geo-hazards induced by“5·12”earthquake,2008 in China[R]. Beijing:China Institute of Geo-EnvironmentMonitoring,2015.
[13]陈运泰.汶川特大地震的震级和断层长度[J].科技导报,2008,26(10):26-27.CHEN Yuntai. On the magnitude and the fault lengthof the great Wenchuan earthquake[J]. Review onScience and Technology,2008,26(10):26-27.
[14]中华人民共和国国土资源部.中国国土资源公报(2008-2017)[R].Ministry of Land and Resources of the People’s ofChina. China Land and Resource Bulletin(2008-2017)[R].
[15]刘传正,李铁锋,程凌鹏,等.区域地质灾害评价预警的递进分析理论与方法[J].水文地质工程地质,2004,31(4):1-9.LIU Chuanzheng,LI Tiefeng,CHENG Linpeng,et al.A method by to analyse four parameters forassessmentand early warning on the regional geohazards[J].Hydrogeology&Engineering Geology,2004,31(4):1-9.
[16]刘传正,刘艳辉,温铭生,等.中国地质灾害区域预警方法与应用[M].北京:地质出版社,2009.LIU Chuanzheng,LIU Yanhui,WEN Mingsheng,et al.Method and application of regional warning forgeohazards in China[M]. Beijing:GeologicalPublishing,2009.
[17]刘传正,刘艳辉,温铭生,等.中国地质灾害气象预警实践:2003-2012[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2015,26(1):1-8.LIU Chuanzheng,LIU Yanhui,WEN Mingsheng,etal. Early warning for regional geo-hazards during 2003-2012,China[J]. The Chinese Journal of GeologicalHazard and Control,2015,26(1):1-8.
[18]温铭生,方志伟,王阳谷.都江堰市五里坡特大滑坡灾害特征与致灾成因[J].现代地质,2015,29(2):448-453.WEN Mingsheng, FANG Zhiwei, WANG Yanggu.Characteristics and disaster causes of Wulipo landslidein dujiangyan city[J]. Eoscience,2015,29(2):448-453.
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