基于改进CRITIC法与云模型相结合的高速公路路堑高边坡工程施工安全总体风险评估模型研究
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摘要
针对高速公路路堑高边坡工程施工安全风险评估过程中存在模糊性与随机性的特点,基于处理不确定信息的云模型理论,提出一种基于改进CRITIC法与云模型相结合的高速公路路堑高边坡工程施工安全总体风险评估模型。该模型依据边坡工程施工安全总体风险评估指标体系及风险分级标准,计算各评估指标隶属于不同风险等级的云模型特征参数;考虑评估指标的信息量和指标之间的相关性,采用改进CRITIC法确定各评估指标的权重,代入边坡工程各评估指标的评分分值,得到待评边坡工程隶属于各风险等级的综合确定度,并依据最大确定度原则判定边坡工程的风险等级;最后将模型应用于《指南》中3个边坡工程案例的施工安全总体风险评估中,并将模型评估结果与《指南》中方法评估结果进行对比分析,结果表明该模型运用于边坡工程施工安全总体风险评估是有效、可行的,且模型评估结果更贴近边坡工程实际的风险状况,为边坡工程施工安全总体风险评估提供了一条新途径。
In view of the fuzziness and randomness in the process of construction safety risk assessment of freeway high cutting slope,this paper proposes an overall risk assessment model for slope construction safety based on the improved CRITIC method and the cloud model.According to the overall risk assessment index system and classification standard of slope construction safety,the model calculates the cloud model parameters of each evaluation index belonging to different risk levels,and considers the amount of information and correlation of the indicators.The paper determines the weights of evaluation indexes by the improved CRITIC method,and obtains the comprehensive certainty of slope engineering by replacing scoring value of each evaluation index of the slope engineering,and the risk grade of slope engineering is determined according to the principle of maximum certainty.Finally,the paper applies the model to the overall risk assessment of construction safety in three cases in the Guide,and the evaluation results are compared with the Guide method.The results show that the model is effective and feasible for the overall risk assessment of construction safety of high cutting slope engineering of freeway,and the results of model evaluation are closer to the actual risk situation of slope engineering,which provides a new way for the overall risk assessment of construction safety of freeway high cutting slope engineering.The results show that the model is effective and feasible in slope construction risk assessment.The evaluation results can reflect the actual situation and provide a new way for slope construction risk assessment.
In view of the fuzziness and randomness in the process of construction safety risk assessment of freeway high cutting slope,this paper proposes an overall risk assessment model for slope construction safety based on the improved CRITIC method and the cloud model.According to the overall risk assessment index system and classification standard of slope construction safety,the model calculates the cloud model parameters of each evaluation index belonging to different risk levels,and considers the amount of information and correlation of the indicators.The paper determines the weights of evaluation indexes by the improved CRITIC method,and obtains the comprehensive certainty of slope engineering by replacing scoring value of each evaluation index of the slope engineering,and the risk grade of slope engineering is determined according to the principle of maximum certainty.Finally,the paper applies the model to the overall risk assessment of construction safety in three cases in the Guide,and the evaluation results are compared with the Guide method.The results show that the model is effective and feasible for the overall risk assessment of construction safety of high cutting slope engineering of freeway,and the results of model evaluation are closer to the actual risk situation of slope engineering,which provides a new way for the overall risk assessment of construction safety of freeway high cutting slope engineering.The results show that the model is effective and feasible in slope construction risk assessment.The evaluation results can reflect the actual situation and provide a new way for slope construction risk assessment.
引文
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[17]何亚辉,赵明阶,汪魁,等.基于云模型的土石坝渗流安全风险模糊综合评价[J].水电能源科学,2018,36(3):83-86.
[2] 黄健,左得奇,肖金武.基于Android的山区公路边坡稳定性快速评价与应用[J].安全与环境工程,2018,25(2):44-47.
[3] 余科,简文星,樊友庆,等.赣南高速公路边坡玻璃钢锚杆支护效果的数值模拟[J].安全与环境工程,2018,25(5):50-54.
[4] Shamekhi E,Tannant D D.Probabilistic assessment of rock slope stability using response surfaces determined from finite element models of geometric realizations[J].Computers and Geotechnics,2015,69:70-81.
[5] Li X Y,Zhang L M,Zhang S.Efficient Bayesian networks for slope safety evaluation with large quantity monitoring information[J].Geoscience Frontiers,2018,9:1679-1687.
[6] 交通运输部.高速公路路堑高边坡工程施工安全风险评估指南(试行)[M].北京:人民交通出版社股份有限公司,2015.
[7] 李德毅,杜鹢.不确定性人工智能[M].2版.北京:国防工业出版社,2014.
[8] 杨文东,杨栋,谢全敏.基于云模型的边坡风险评估方法及其应用[J].华中科技大学学报(自然科学版),2018,46(4):30-34.
[9] 黎良辉,杨斌,魏博文,等.基于改进层次分析法的大坝性态安全诊断云模型[J].水资源与水工程学报,2018,29(1):209-214.
[10]尹航,李远富.综合交通项目安全应急方案的云模型比选方法研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(7):102-107.
[11]Alonso-Montesinos J,Martínez-Durban M,del Sagrado J,et al.The application of Bayesian network classifiers to cloud classification in satellite images[J].Renewable Energy,2016,97:155-161.
[12]Barbieri F,Rajakaruna S,Ghosh A.Very short-term photovoltaic power forecasting with cloud modeling:A review[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2017,75:242-263.
[13]Diakoulaki D,Mavrotas G,Papayannakis L.Determining objective weights in multiple criteria problems:The critic method[J].Computers and Operations Research,1995,22(7):763-770.
[14]过江,张为星,赵岩.岩爆预测的多维云模型综合评判方法[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2018,37(5):1199-1206.
[15]曹玮,王瑛.基于改进CRITIC-CPM的科技奖励评价模型[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2012,33(2):17-21.
[16]关贤欢,郑相悦,荣帅.基于改进层次分析法-云模型的岩爆烈度等级预测[J].化工矿物与加工,2018(8):43-47,55.
[17]何亚辉,赵明阶,汪魁,等.基于云模型的土石坝渗流安全风险模糊综合评价[J].水电能源科学,2018,36(3):83-86.
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