Dynamic changes in lakes in the Hoh Xil region before and after the 2011 outburst of Zonag Lake
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摘要
Zonag, Kusai, Hedin Noel and Yanhu Lakes are independent inland lakes in the Hoh Xil region on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In September2011, Zonag Lake burst after the water level had increased for many years. Floods flowed through Kusai and Hedin Noel Lakes into Yanhu Lake; since then, the four small endorheic catchments merged into one larger catchment. This hydrological process caused the rapid shrinkage of Zonag Lake and continuous expansion of Yanhu Lake. In this study,based on satellite images, meteorological data and field investigations, we examined the dynamic changes in the four lakes and analyzed the influencing factors. The results showed that before 2011, the trends in the four lake areas were similar and displayed several stages. The change in the area of Zonag Lake corresponded well to the change in annual precipitation(AP), but the magnitude of the change was less than that of a non-glacier-fed lake. Although increased precipitation was the dominant factor that caused Zonag Lake to expand, increased glacier melting and permafrost thawing due to climate warming also had significant effects. After the 2011 outburst of Zonag Lake, due to the increasing AP and accelerating glacier melting, the increases in water volume of the three lakes were absorbed by Yanhu Lake, and Yanhu Lake expanded considerably. According to the rapid growth rates in water level and lake area, Yanhu Lake is likely to burst in 1-2 years.
Zonag, Kusai, Hedin Noel and Yanhu Lakes are independent inland lakes in the Hoh Xil region on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In September2011, Zonag Lake burst after the water level had increased for many years. Floods flowed through Kusai and Hedin Noel Lakes into Yanhu Lake; since then, the four small endorheic catchments merged into one larger catchment. This hydrological process caused the rapid shrinkage of Zonag Lake and continuous expansion of Yanhu Lake. In this study,based on satellite images, meteorological data and field investigations, we examined the dynamic changes in the four lakes and analyzed the influencing factors. The results showed that before 2011, the trends in the four lake areas were similar and displayed several stages. The change in the area of Zonag Lake corresponded well to the change in annual precipitation(AP), but the magnitude of the change was less than that of a non-glacier-fed lake. Although increased precipitation was the dominant factor that caused Zonag Lake to expand, increased glacier melting and permafrost thawing due to climate warming also had significant effects. After the 2011 outburst of Zonag Lake, due to the increasing AP and accelerating glacier melting, the increases in water volume of the three lakes were absorbed by Yanhu Lake, and Yanhu Lake expanded considerably. According to the rapid growth rates in water level and lake area, Yanhu Lake is likely to burst in 1-2 years.
Zonag, Kusai, Hedin Noel and Yanhu Lakes are independent inland lakes in the Hoh Xil region on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In September2011, Zonag Lake burst after the water level had increased for many years. Floods flowed through Kusai and Hedin Noel Lakes into Yanhu Lake; since then, the four small endorheic catchments merged into one larger catchment. This hydrological process caused the rapid shrinkage of Zonag Lake and continuous expansion of Yanhu Lake. In this study,based on satellite images, meteorological data and field investigations, we examined the dynamic changes in the four lakes and analyzed the influencing factors. The results showed that before 2011, the trends in the four lake areas were similar and displayed several stages. The change in the area of Zonag Lake corresponded well to the change in annual precipitation(AP), but the magnitude of the change was less than that of a non-glacier-fed lake. Although increased precipitation was the dominant factor that caused Zonag Lake to expand, increased glacier melting and permafrost thawing due to climate warming also had significant effects. After the 2011 outburst of Zonag Lake, due to the increasing AP and accelerating glacier melting, the increases in water volume of the three lakes were absorbed by Yanhu Lake, and Yanhu Lake expanded considerably. According to the rapid growth rates in water level and lake area, Yanhu Lake is likely to burst in 1-2 years.
引文
Zhang GQ,Yao TD,Xie HJ,et al.(2014)Lakes’state and abundance across the Tibetan Plateau.Chinese Science Bulletin 59:3010-3021.https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-014-0258-x
Ma RH,Yang GS,Duan HT,et al.(2011)China’s lakes at present:Number,area and spatial distribution.Science China Earth Sciences 54:283-289.https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-010-4052-6
Liu JS,Wang SY,Yu SM,et al.(2009)Climate warming and growth of high-elevation inland lakes on the Tibetan Plateau.Global Planet Change 67:209-217.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2009.03.010
Yao TD,Pu JC,Lu AX,et al.(2007)Recent glacial retreat and its impact on hydrological processes on the Tibetan Plateau,China,and surrounding regions.Arctic Antarctic and Alpine Research 39:642-650.https://doi.org/10.1657/1523-0430(07-510)[YAO]2.0.CO;2
Yao TD,Thompson Lonnie,Yang Wei,et al.(2012)Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings.Nature Climate Change 2:663-667.https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE1580
W JC,S Y,W QB,et al.(2009)Discussion on the possibility of taking ground ice in permafrost regions as water sources under climate warming.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology 31:351-356.https://doi.org/1000-0240(2009)02-0350-07
IPCC.2014.Climate Change 2014:Impacts,Adaptation,and Vulnerability.Part A:Global and Sectoral Aspects.In Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Zhang XQ,Ren Y,Yin ZY,et al.(2009)Spatial and temporal variation patterns of reference evapotranspiration across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau during 1971-2004.Journal of Geophysical Research 114(D15105).https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD011753,2009
Duan SQ,Fan SX,Cao GC,et al.(2015)The changing features and cause analysis of the lakes in the source regions of the Yellow River from 1976 to 2014.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology37:745-756.https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2015.0084
Tang LY,Duan XF,Kong FJ,et al.(2018)Influences of climate change on area variation of Qinghai Lake on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau since1980s.Scientific Reports 8(1):7331.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-25683-3
Wan W,Xiao PF,Feng XZ(2014)Remote sensing monitoring of lakes changing in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in recent 30 years.Chinese Science Bulletin 10:1021-1035.https://doi.org/701-714.10.1007/s11434-014-0128-6
Yan LJ,Zheng MP.(2015)The response of lake variations to climate change in the past forty years:A case study of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau and adjacent areas,China.Quaternary International 371:31-48.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2014.12.057
Zhang GQ,Yao TD,Piao SL,et al.(2017a)Extensive and drastically different alpine lake changes on Asia’s high plateaus during the past four decades.Geophysical Research Letters 44:252-260.https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072033
Yang K,Yao FF,Wang JD,et al(2017)Recent dynamics of alpine lakes on the endorheic Changtang Plateau from multi-mission satellite data.Journal of Hydrology 552:633-645.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.07.024
Lei YB,Yao TD,Bird BW,et al.(2013)Coherent lake growth on the central Tibetan Plateau since the 1970s:Characterization and attribution.Journal of Hydrology 483:61-67.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.01.003
Lei YB,Yang K,Wang B,et al.(2014)Response of inland lake dynamics over the Tibetan Plateau to climate change.Climate Change 125:281-290.https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1175-3
Zhu LP,Xie MP,Wu YH,et al(2010)Quantitative analysis of lake area variations and the influence factors from 1971-2004 in the Nam Co basin of the Tibetan Plateau.Chinese Science Bulletin 55:1294-1303.https://doi.org/doi:10.1007/s11434-010-0015-8
Song CQ,Huang B,Richards K,et al.(2014)Accelerated lake expansion on the Tibetan Plateau in the 2000s:Induced by glacial melting or other processes?.Water Resources Research 50(4):3170-3186.https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR014724
Zhang GQ,Yao TD,Shum CK,et al.(2017b)Lake volume and groundwater storage variations in Tibetan Plateaus endorheic basin.Geophysical Research Letters 44:5550-5560.https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073773
Yang K,Lu H,Yue SY,et al.(2018)Quantifying recent precipitation change and predicting lake expansion in the Inner Tibetan Plateau.Climatic Change 147:1-15.https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2127-5
Yao FF,Wang JD,Yang KH,et al.(2018)Lake storage variation on the endorheic Tibetan Plateau and its attribution to climate change since the new millennium.Environmental Research Letters 13:064011.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab5d3
Yao XJ,Liu SY,Sun MP,et al.(2012)Changes of Kusai Lake in Hoh Xil Region and Causes of Its Water Over flowing.Acta Geogrophica Sinica 67:689-698.https://doi.org/0.11821/xb201205011
Liu BK,Li L,Du Y’E,et al.(2016)Causes of the outburst of Zonag Lake in Hoh Xil,Tibetan Plateau and its impact on surrounding environment.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology 38:1-10.https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2016.0033
Jin HJ,Zhao L,Wang SL,et al.(2006)Thermal regimes and degradation modes of permafrost along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway.Science in China(Series D)49(11):1170-1183.https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-006-2003-z
Wu QB,Dong XF,Liu YZ,et al.(2007)Responses of permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,China,to climate change and engineering construction.Arctic Antarctic and Alpine Research39(4):682-687.https://doi.org/10.1657/1523-0430(07-508)[WU]2.0.CO;2
Zou DF,Zhao L,Sheng Y,et al.(2017)A new map of the permafrost distribution on the Tibetan Plateau.The Cryosphere 11:2527-2542.https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2527-2017
Hu DS(1992)Investigation and study on lake resources in Kekexili region.Arid Land Geography 15:50-58.
Hu DS(1994)Preliminary probe into the genesis of the Cuodarima meteoritic crater lake in Hoh Xil Region.Journal of Salt Lake Science 2(1):31-37.
Shi YF,Sheng YP,Li DL,et al.(2003)Discussion on the present climate change from warm dry to warm wet in Northwest China.Quaternary Sciences 23(2):154-164.https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:1001-7410.2003.02.005
Shi YF,Sheng YP,Kang ES,et al.(2007)Recent and future climate change in northwest China.Climatic Change,80(3-4):379-393.https://doi.org/DOI 10.1007/s10584-006-9121-7
Wu SH,Yin YH,Zhen D,et al.(2005)Trend of climate change in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in recent 30 years.Acta Geogrophica Sinica60:3-11.
Wang JD,Song CQ,Reager JT,et al.(2018)Recent global decline in endorheic basin water storages.Nature Geoscience 11(12):926-932.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0265-7
Qin YH,Wu TH,Zhao L,et al.Numerical modeling of the active layer thickness and permafrost thermal state across QinghaiTibetan Plateau.Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmosphere,2017.https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD026858
Meng K,Shi XH,Wang EQ,et al.(2012)High-altitude salt lake elevation changes and glacial ablation in Central Tibet,2000-2010.Chinese Science Bulletin 57:525-534.https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-011-4849-5
Luo J,Niu FJ,Lin ZJ,et al.(2012)Permafros features around a representative thermokarst Lake in Beiluhe on the Tibetan Plateau.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology 34:1110-1117.https://doi.org/1000-0240(2012)05-1110-08
Yang YZ,Wu QB,Yun HB,et al.(2016)Evaluation of the hydrological contributions of permafrost to the thermokarst lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau using stable isotopes.Global and Planetary Change 140:1-8.
Yao XJ,Sun MP,Gong P,et al.(2016).Overflow probability of the Salt Lake in Hoh Xil Region.Acta Geographica Sinica,28(5):647-655.https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb201609005
Liu WH,Xie CW,Wang W,et al.(2019)Analysis on expansion trend and outburst risk of the Yanhu Lake in Hoh Xil region,QinghaiTibet Plateau.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology 41(1):1-12.https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2019.0306
Ma RH,Yang GS,Duan HT,et al.(2011)China’s lakes at present:Number,area and spatial distribution.Science China Earth Sciences 54:283-289.https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-010-4052-6
Liu JS,Wang SY,Yu SM,et al.(2009)Climate warming and growth of high-elevation inland lakes on the Tibetan Plateau.Global Planet Change 67:209-217.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2009.03.010
Yao TD,Pu JC,Lu AX,et al.(2007)Recent glacial retreat and its impact on hydrological processes on the Tibetan Plateau,China,and surrounding regions.Arctic Antarctic and Alpine Research 39:642-650.https://doi.org/10.1657/1523-0430(07-510)[YAO]2.0.CO;2
Yao TD,Thompson Lonnie,Yang Wei,et al.(2012)Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings.Nature Climate Change 2:663-667.https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE1580
W JC,S Y,W QB,et al.(2009)Discussion on the possibility of taking ground ice in permafrost regions as water sources under climate warming.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology 31:351-356.https://doi.org/1000-0240(2009)02-0350-07
IPCC.2014.Climate Change 2014:Impacts,Adaptation,and Vulnerability.Part A:Global and Sectoral Aspects.In Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Zhang XQ,Ren Y,Yin ZY,et al.(2009)Spatial and temporal variation patterns of reference evapotranspiration across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau during 1971-2004.Journal of Geophysical Research 114(D15105).https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD011753,2009
Duan SQ,Fan SX,Cao GC,et al.(2015)The changing features and cause analysis of the lakes in the source regions of the Yellow River from 1976 to 2014.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology37:745-756.https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2015.0084
Tang LY,Duan XF,Kong FJ,et al.(2018)Influences of climate change on area variation of Qinghai Lake on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau since1980s.Scientific Reports 8(1):7331.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-25683-3
Wan W,Xiao PF,Feng XZ(2014)Remote sensing monitoring of lakes changing in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in recent 30 years.Chinese Science Bulletin 10:1021-1035.https://doi.org/701-714.10.1007/s11434-014-0128-6
Yan LJ,Zheng MP.(2015)The response of lake variations to climate change in the past forty years:A case study of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau and adjacent areas,China.Quaternary International 371:31-48.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2014.12.057
Zhang GQ,Yao TD,Piao SL,et al.(2017a)Extensive and drastically different alpine lake changes on Asia’s high plateaus during the past four decades.Geophysical Research Letters 44:252-260.https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072033
Yang K,Yao FF,Wang JD,et al(2017)Recent dynamics of alpine lakes on the endorheic Changtang Plateau from multi-mission satellite data.Journal of Hydrology 552:633-645.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.07.024
Lei YB,Yao TD,Bird BW,et al.(2013)Coherent lake growth on the central Tibetan Plateau since the 1970s:Characterization and attribution.Journal of Hydrology 483:61-67.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.01.003
Lei YB,Yang K,Wang B,et al.(2014)Response of inland lake dynamics over the Tibetan Plateau to climate change.Climate Change 125:281-290.https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1175-3
Zhu LP,Xie MP,Wu YH,et al(2010)Quantitative analysis of lake area variations and the influence factors from 1971-2004 in the Nam Co basin of the Tibetan Plateau.Chinese Science Bulletin 55:1294-1303.https://doi.org/doi:10.1007/s11434-010-0015-8
Song CQ,Huang B,Richards K,et al.(2014)Accelerated lake expansion on the Tibetan Plateau in the 2000s:Induced by glacial melting or other processes?.Water Resources Research 50(4):3170-3186.https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR014724
Zhang GQ,Yao TD,Shum CK,et al.(2017b)Lake volume and groundwater storage variations in Tibetan Plateaus endorheic basin.Geophysical Research Letters 44:5550-5560.https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073773
Yang K,Lu H,Yue SY,et al.(2018)Quantifying recent precipitation change and predicting lake expansion in the Inner Tibetan Plateau.Climatic Change 147:1-15.https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2127-5
Yao FF,Wang JD,Yang KH,et al.(2018)Lake storage variation on the endorheic Tibetan Plateau and its attribution to climate change since the new millennium.Environmental Research Letters 13:064011.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab5d3
Yao XJ,Liu SY,Sun MP,et al.(2012)Changes of Kusai Lake in Hoh Xil Region and Causes of Its Water Over flowing.Acta Geogrophica Sinica 67:689-698.https://doi.org/0.11821/xb201205011
Liu BK,Li L,Du Y’E,et al.(2016)Causes of the outburst of Zonag Lake in Hoh Xil,Tibetan Plateau and its impact on surrounding environment.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology 38:1-10.https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2016.0033
Jin HJ,Zhao L,Wang SL,et al.(2006)Thermal regimes and degradation modes of permafrost along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway.Science in China(Series D)49(11):1170-1183.https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-006-2003-z
Wu QB,Dong XF,Liu YZ,et al.(2007)Responses of permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,China,to climate change and engineering construction.Arctic Antarctic and Alpine Research39(4):682-687.https://doi.org/10.1657/1523-0430(07-508)[WU]2.0.CO;2
Zou DF,Zhao L,Sheng Y,et al.(2017)A new map of the permafrost distribution on the Tibetan Plateau.The Cryosphere 11:2527-2542.https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2527-2017
Hu DS(1992)Investigation and study on lake resources in Kekexili region.Arid Land Geography 15:50-58.
Hu DS(1994)Preliminary probe into the genesis of the Cuodarima meteoritic crater lake in Hoh Xil Region.Journal of Salt Lake Science 2(1):31-37.
Shi YF,Sheng YP,Li DL,et al.(2003)Discussion on the present climate change from warm dry to warm wet in Northwest China.Quaternary Sciences 23(2):154-164.https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:1001-7410.2003.02.005
Shi YF,Sheng YP,Kang ES,et al.(2007)Recent and future climate change in northwest China.Climatic Change,80(3-4):379-393.https://doi.org/DOI 10.1007/s10584-006-9121-7
Wu SH,Yin YH,Zhen D,et al.(2005)Trend of climate change in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in recent 30 years.Acta Geogrophica Sinica60:3-11.
Wang JD,Song CQ,Reager JT,et al.(2018)Recent global decline in endorheic basin water storages.Nature Geoscience 11(12):926-932.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0265-7
Qin YH,Wu TH,Zhao L,et al.Numerical modeling of the active layer thickness and permafrost thermal state across QinghaiTibetan Plateau.Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmosphere,2017.https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD026858
Meng K,Shi XH,Wang EQ,et al.(2012)High-altitude salt lake elevation changes and glacial ablation in Central Tibet,2000-2010.Chinese Science Bulletin 57:525-534.https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-011-4849-5
Luo J,Niu FJ,Lin ZJ,et al.(2012)Permafros features around a representative thermokarst Lake in Beiluhe on the Tibetan Plateau.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology 34:1110-1117.https://doi.org/1000-0240(2012)05-1110-08
Yang YZ,Wu QB,Yun HB,et al.(2016)Evaluation of the hydrological contributions of permafrost to the thermokarst lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau using stable isotopes.Global and Planetary Change 140:1-8.
Yao XJ,Sun MP,Gong P,et al.(2016).Overflow probability of the Salt Lake in Hoh Xil Region.Acta Geographica Sinica,28(5):647-655.https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb201609005
Liu WH,Xie CW,Wang W,et al.(2019)Analysis on expansion trend and outburst risk of the Yanhu Lake in Hoh Xil region,QinghaiTibet Plateau.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology 41(1):1-12.https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2019.0306
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