京津冀地区的地震活动性研究
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摘要
京津冀地区位于华北地震区北部,区内受多组北北东向、北西西向断裂带的影响,构造活动强烈,地震活动水平较高.该区是我国城市密集、人口稠密、经济较发达地带,一旦发生中强地震,会严重影响着区域经济的发展和社会稳定,因此该区的地震活动性愈加值得关注和研究.本文收集了京津冀地区历史破坏性地震和1970年以来中小地震,分析了区域最小完整性震级时间、空间分布特征,基于古登堡-里克特G-R关系的震级-频度分布原理和泊松分布原理,统计分析了京津冀地区的地震活动性参数:a值、b值和V_4值,并定量地分析京津冀地区的地震时、空分布特征,探讨了京津冀地区的地震活动规律性、地震分布特征以及未来地震活动趋势.本文的研究结果可供京津冀地区地震活动性分析和地震危险性分析时参考.
Beijing-Tianjin-HeBei region is located in the northern part of the north China seismic zone, where the tectonic and seismicity activities are strong enough, because of the earthquake controlled by a series of the NNE and NWW faults. The region is the dense cities, densely populated; economy is relatively developed area of china. If a moderate-strong earthquake occurs in the area, it will cause a disaster and tremendously influence on the society and economy of the area, so, it is necessary to study and attention the seismicity in this region. In this paper, we collected the historical destructive earthquakes and moderate and small earthquakes since 1970 of the Beijing-Tianjin-HeBei region, analyses the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the minimum magnitude of completeness. Based on the magnitude-frequency distribution principle of the G-R relationship and Poisson distribution principle, this paper make a statistical analysis on the seismicity parameters a value, b value and the V_4 value of research region, quantitative analyses the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of earthquake in the Beijing-Tianjin-HeBei region. This paper discusses the regularity, distribution characteristics of the earthquake and future trend of seismic activity in the Beijing-Tianjin-HeBei region. The research results of this article can be used as a reference for the seismic activity and seismic risk analysis in the Beijing-Tianjin-HeBei region.
Beijing-Tianjin-HeBei region is located in the northern part of the north China seismic zone, where the tectonic and seismicity activities are strong enough, because of the earthquake controlled by a series of the NNE and NWW faults. The region is the dense cities, densely populated; economy is relatively developed area of china. If a moderate-strong earthquake occurs in the area, it will cause a disaster and tremendously influence on the society and economy of the area, so, it is necessary to study and attention the seismicity in this region. In this paper, we collected the historical destructive earthquakes and moderate and small earthquakes since 1970 of the Beijing-Tianjin-HeBei region, analyses the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the minimum magnitude of completeness. Based on the magnitude-frequency distribution principle of the G-R relationship and Poisson distribution principle, this paper make a statistical analysis on the seismicity parameters a value, b value and the V_4 value of research region, quantitative analyses the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of earthquake in the Beijing-Tianjin-HeBei region. This paper discusses the regularity, distribution characteristics of the earthquake and future trend of seismic activity in the Beijing-Tianjin-HeBei region. The research results of this article can be used as a reference for the seismic activity and seismic risk analysis in the Beijing-Tianjin-HeBei region.
引文
Chen L,Liu J,Chen O,et al.1998.Afiershock deletion in seismicity analysis [J].Chinese Journal Of Geophysics (in Chinese),41(sup1):244-252.
Console R,Gasparini C,Simoni B De,et al.1979.Preambolo al Catalogo Sismico Nazionale (CSN).I criteri di informazione del CSN [J].Annals of Geophysics,32:37-77.
Du J J,Ma Y S,Tan C X,et al.2008.The Evaluation of regional crustal stability in Beijing and Tianjin area [J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica (in Chinese),29(4):502-509.
Gutenberg B,Richter C F.1956.Earthquake magnitude,intensity,energy and acceleration [J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,46:105-145.
Huang W Q,Shi Z L,Cao X F.1989.Factors influencing the estimation of b value and the selection of b Value in hazard analysis [J].Acta seismologica sinica (in Chinese),11(4):351-361.
Lei J C,Gao M T,Lü H S,et al.2010.Effects of seismic belt division scheme on seismicity parameters [J].Acta seismologica sinica (in Chinese),32(4):457- 465.
Liu D W,Shen X Q,Li M L,et al.2004.Research on the earthquake activity characters and the risk in North china seism region [J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation And Research (in Chinese),25(3):8-13.
Liu K,Qu G S,Fang L H,et al.2015.Relationship between Tectonics and Small to Moderate Earthquakes in Guye and Luanxian area,Hebei Province [J].Earthquake (in Chinese),35(2):111-120.
Liu R F,Gao J C,Chen Y T,et al.2008..Construction and development of digital seismograph networks in China [J].Acta Seismologica Sinica (in Chinese),30(5):533-539.
MENG Xian-gang,ZHAN Wei,ZHU Wen-wu,et al.2017.Research on crustal deformation movement and seismic activity of the region of Shanxi,Hebei and Inner Mongolia[J].Progress in Geophysics ( in Chinese),32( 5):1907-1914,doi:10.6038/pg20170506.
Pan H,Li J C.2006.Study on Uncertainties of Seismicity Parameters b and V4 in Seismic Statistical Zones [J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention (in Chinese),1(3):218-224.
Richter C F.1958.Elementary seismology [M].San Francisco
The earthquake disaster prevention department of the state seismological bureau.1999.The new catalogue of chinese historical strong earthquakes from 1912 to 1990 AD [M].BeiJing:China Science and Technology Press (in Chinese).
The earthquake disaster prevention department of the state seismological bureau.1995.The new catalogue of chinese historical strong earthquakes from the 23rd century B.C.to 1911 AD [M].BeiJing:Seismological Press (in Chinese).
Wang F X.1999.The Beijing Seismic Telemetry Network(BSTN)in the turn of century [J].Seicmological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research (in Chinese),20(6):74-79.
Wang J,Wu X ,Gao A J,et al.2010.Probing an approach to amend the parameters of historical earthquakes:An example of the A.D.294 Yanqing earthquake in Beijing [J].Acta Seismologica Sinica (in Chinese),32(1):108-117.
Wiemer S,Wyss M.1997.Mapping the frequency- magnitude distribution in asperities:An improved technique to calculate recurrence times[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,102(B7):15115-15128.
Wiemer S,Wyss M,2000.Minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs:Examples from Alaska,the Western United States,and Japan [J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,90(4):859-869.
Wu M J,Wu A X,Long F,et al.2013.Temporal-spatial Distribution Characteristics of Minimum Magnitude of Completeness in the Capital Region of China [J].Earthquake (in Chinese),33(3):98-106.
Wu Z Y,Bo J S,Liu Z P,et al.2005.Statistical analysis on b Value and earthquake yearly average occurrence ratio in north east seismic zone [J].Seismological research of northeast china (in Chinese),21(3):27-32.
Yan J Q,Han W,Gao M T.1996.Uncertainty of Seismicity Parameters and Its Affects to the Seismic Zoning [J].Earthquake research in china (in Chinese),12(Sup):71-77.
Zhang W D,Li M L,Wang J X,et al.2006.Research on the earthquake risk and strong earthquake prediction for the next 50 years in north china area [J].Seismological research of northeast china (in Chinese),22(4):6-13.
ZHAO Yong-Hong,XU An-dong,ZHANG Qiong.2018.Earthquake prediction Ⅷ:seismic activity method[J].Progress in Geophysics ( in Chinese),33( 5):1871-1878,doi:10.6038/pg2018BB0344.
ZHENG Que,LIU Cai,TIAN You,et al.2018.Review and further understanding of frequency-magnitude distribution in seismicity[J].Progress in Geophysics ( in Chinese),33( 5):1879-1889,doi:10.6038/pg2018BB0381.
Zhou R,Lin B H.1992.By using the Extreme value theory analysis in the seismic activity in the future of the Beijing-Tianjin-Tang region and seven main areas [J].Acta Seismologica Sinica (in Chinese),14(Sup)710-715.
陈凌,刘杰,陈颙,等.1998.地震活动性分析中余震的删除[J].地球物理学报,41(增刊1):244-252.
杜建军,马寅生,谭成轩,等.2008.京津地区区域地壳稳定性评价[J].地球学报,29(4):502-509.
国家地震局震害防御司编.1995.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪-公元1911年)[M].北京:地震出版社.
黄玮琼,时振粱,曹学锋.1989.b值统计中的影响因素及危险性分析中b值的选取a[J].地震学报,11(4):351-361.
雷建成,高孟潭,吕红山,等.2010.地震带划分方案对地震活动性参数的影响[J].地震学报,32(4):457- 465.
刘东旺,沈小七,李敏莉,等.2004.华北地震区地震活动特征及其危险性研究[J].地震地磁观测与研究,35(3):8-13.
刘亢,曲国胜,房立华,等.2015.唐山古冶、滦县地区中小地震活动与构造关系研究[J].地震,35(2):111-120.
刘瑞丰,高景春,陈运泰,等.2008.中国数字地震台网的建设与发展[J].地震学报,30(5):533-539.
孟宪纲,占伟,朱文武,等.2017.晋冀蒙交界地区地壳形变运动和地震活动性研究[J].地球物理学进展,32 ( 5 ):1907-1914,doi:10.6038/pg20170506.
潘华,李金臣.2006.地震统计区地震活动性参数b值及V4不确定性研究[J].震灾防御技术,1(3):218-224.
王凤霞.1999.世纪之交的北京遥测地震台网[J].地震地磁观测与研究,20(6):74-79.
王健,吴宣,高阿甲,等.2010.历史地震参数校订方法探讨——以北京延庆公元294年地震为例[J].地震学报,32(1):108-117.
武敏捷,武安绪,龙锋,等.2013.首都圈地震活动完整性震级时空分布特征研究[J].地震,33(3):98-106.
吴兆营,薄景山,刘志平,等.2005.东北地震区b值和地震年平均发生率的统计分析[J].东北地震研究,21(3):27-32.
鄢家全,韩炜,高孟潭.1996.地震活动性参数的不确定性及其对区划结果的影响[J].中国地震,12(增刊):71-77.
张卫东,李茂林,王九洋,等.2006.华北地区未来50年地震危险性与强震预测研究[J].东北地震研究,22(4):6-13.
赵永红,徐安东,张琼.2018.地震预测方法Ⅷ:地震活动性[J].地球物理学进展,33( 5):1871-1878,doi:10.6038/pg2018BB0344.
郑确,刘财,田有,等.2018.地震活动性中震级-频度关系研究进展与再认识.地球物理学进展,33( 5):1879-1889,doi:10.6038/pg2018BB0381.
中国地震局震害防御司编.1999.中国近代地震目录(公元1912年-1990年 MS≥4.7)[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社.
周冉,林邦慧.1992.用极值理论对京—津—唐地区及7个主要地震带未来地震活动的分析[J].地震学报,14(增刊):710-715.
(1)中国地震局地壳应力研究所.2009.1990年后中国及邻区地震目录编制工作报告[R].北京.
(2)中国地震局地壳应力研究所.2015.河北长河核电厂工程可研阶段地震安全性评价报告[R].北京.
(3)潘华.2011.地震活动性参数确定专题报告[R].北京.
Console R,Gasparini C,Simoni B De,et al.1979.Preambolo al Catalogo Sismico Nazionale (CSN).I criteri di informazione del CSN [J].Annals of Geophysics,32:37-77.
Du J J,Ma Y S,Tan C X,et al.2008.The Evaluation of regional crustal stability in Beijing and Tianjin area [J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica (in Chinese),29(4):502-509.
Gutenberg B,Richter C F.1956.Earthquake magnitude,intensity,energy and acceleration [J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,46:105-145.
Huang W Q,Shi Z L,Cao X F.1989.Factors influencing the estimation of b value and the selection of b Value in hazard analysis [J].Acta seismologica sinica (in Chinese),11(4):351-361.
Lei J C,Gao M T,Lü H S,et al.2010.Effects of seismic belt division scheme on seismicity parameters [J].Acta seismologica sinica (in Chinese),32(4):457- 465.
Liu D W,Shen X Q,Li M L,et al.2004.Research on the earthquake activity characters and the risk in North china seism region [J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation And Research (in Chinese),25(3):8-13.
Liu K,Qu G S,Fang L H,et al.2015.Relationship between Tectonics and Small to Moderate Earthquakes in Guye and Luanxian area,Hebei Province [J].Earthquake (in Chinese),35(2):111-120.
Liu R F,Gao J C,Chen Y T,et al.2008..Construction and development of digital seismograph networks in China [J].Acta Seismologica Sinica (in Chinese),30(5):533-539.
MENG Xian-gang,ZHAN Wei,ZHU Wen-wu,et al.2017.Research on crustal deformation movement and seismic activity of the region of Shanxi,Hebei and Inner Mongolia[J].Progress in Geophysics ( in Chinese),32( 5):1907-1914,doi:10.6038/pg20170506.
Pan H,Li J C.2006.Study on Uncertainties of Seismicity Parameters b and V4 in Seismic Statistical Zones [J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention (in Chinese),1(3):218-224.
Richter C F.1958.Elementary seismology [M].San Francisco
The earthquake disaster prevention department of the state seismological bureau.1999.The new catalogue of chinese historical strong earthquakes from 1912 to 1990 AD [M].BeiJing:China Science and Technology Press (in Chinese).
The earthquake disaster prevention department of the state seismological bureau.1995.The new catalogue of chinese historical strong earthquakes from the 23rd century B.C.to 1911 AD [M].BeiJing:Seismological Press (in Chinese).
Wang F X.1999.The Beijing Seismic Telemetry Network(BSTN)in the turn of century [J].Seicmological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research (in Chinese),20(6):74-79.
Wang J,Wu X ,Gao A J,et al.2010.Probing an approach to amend the parameters of historical earthquakes:An example of the A.D.294 Yanqing earthquake in Beijing [J].Acta Seismologica Sinica (in Chinese),32(1):108-117.
Wiemer S,Wyss M.1997.Mapping the frequency- magnitude distribution in asperities:An improved technique to calculate recurrence times[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,102(B7):15115-15128.
Wiemer S,Wyss M,2000.Minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs:Examples from Alaska,the Western United States,and Japan [J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,90(4):859-869.
Wu M J,Wu A X,Long F,et al.2013.Temporal-spatial Distribution Characteristics of Minimum Magnitude of Completeness in the Capital Region of China [J].Earthquake (in Chinese),33(3):98-106.
Wu Z Y,Bo J S,Liu Z P,et al.2005.Statistical analysis on b Value and earthquake yearly average occurrence ratio in north east seismic zone [J].Seismological research of northeast china (in Chinese),21(3):27-32.
Yan J Q,Han W,Gao M T.1996.Uncertainty of Seismicity Parameters and Its Affects to the Seismic Zoning [J].Earthquake research in china (in Chinese),12(Sup):71-77.
Zhang W D,Li M L,Wang J X,et al.2006.Research on the earthquake risk and strong earthquake prediction for the next 50 years in north china area [J].Seismological research of northeast china (in Chinese),22(4):6-13.
ZHAO Yong-Hong,XU An-dong,ZHANG Qiong.2018.Earthquake prediction Ⅷ:seismic activity method[J].Progress in Geophysics ( in Chinese),33( 5):1871-1878,doi:10.6038/pg2018BB0344.
ZHENG Que,LIU Cai,TIAN You,et al.2018.Review and further understanding of frequency-magnitude distribution in seismicity[J].Progress in Geophysics ( in Chinese),33( 5):1879-1889,doi:10.6038/pg2018BB0381.
Zhou R,Lin B H.1992.By using the Extreme value theory analysis in the seismic activity in the future of the Beijing-Tianjin-Tang region and seven main areas [J].Acta Seismologica Sinica (in Chinese),14(Sup)710-715.
陈凌,刘杰,陈颙,等.1998.地震活动性分析中余震的删除[J].地球物理学报,41(增刊1):244-252.
杜建军,马寅生,谭成轩,等.2008.京津地区区域地壳稳定性评价[J].地球学报,29(4):502-509.
国家地震局震害防御司编.1995.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪-公元1911年)[M].北京:地震出版社.
黄玮琼,时振粱,曹学锋.1989.b值统计中的影响因素及危险性分析中b值的选取a[J].地震学报,11(4):351-361.
雷建成,高孟潭,吕红山,等.2010.地震带划分方案对地震活动性参数的影响[J].地震学报,32(4):457- 465.
刘东旺,沈小七,李敏莉,等.2004.华北地震区地震活动特征及其危险性研究[J].地震地磁观测与研究,35(3):8-13.
刘亢,曲国胜,房立华,等.2015.唐山古冶、滦县地区中小地震活动与构造关系研究[J].地震,35(2):111-120.
刘瑞丰,高景春,陈运泰,等.2008.中国数字地震台网的建设与发展[J].地震学报,30(5):533-539.
孟宪纲,占伟,朱文武,等.2017.晋冀蒙交界地区地壳形变运动和地震活动性研究[J].地球物理学进展,32 ( 5 ):1907-1914,doi:10.6038/pg20170506.
潘华,李金臣.2006.地震统计区地震活动性参数b值及V4不确定性研究[J].震灾防御技术,1(3):218-224.
王凤霞.1999.世纪之交的北京遥测地震台网[J].地震地磁观测与研究,20(6):74-79.
王健,吴宣,高阿甲,等.2010.历史地震参数校订方法探讨——以北京延庆公元294年地震为例[J].地震学报,32(1):108-117.
武敏捷,武安绪,龙锋,等.2013.首都圈地震活动完整性震级时空分布特征研究[J].地震,33(3):98-106.
吴兆营,薄景山,刘志平,等.2005.东北地震区b值和地震年平均发生率的统计分析[J].东北地震研究,21(3):27-32.
鄢家全,韩炜,高孟潭.1996.地震活动性参数的不确定性及其对区划结果的影响[J].中国地震,12(增刊):71-77.
张卫东,李茂林,王九洋,等.2006.华北地区未来50年地震危险性与强震预测研究[J].东北地震研究,22(4):6-13.
赵永红,徐安东,张琼.2018.地震预测方法Ⅷ:地震活动性[J].地球物理学进展,33( 5):1871-1878,doi:10.6038/pg2018BB0344.
郑确,刘财,田有,等.2018.地震活动性中震级-频度关系研究进展与再认识.地球物理学进展,33( 5):1879-1889,doi:10.6038/pg2018BB0381.
中国地震局震害防御司编.1999.中国近代地震目录(公元1912年-1990年 MS≥4.7)[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社.
周冉,林邦慧.1992.用极值理论对京—津—唐地区及7个主要地震带未来地震活动的分析[J].地震学报,14(增刊):710-715.
(1)中国地震局地壳应力研究所.2009.1990年后中国及邻区地震目录编制工作报告[R].北京.
(2)中国地震局地壳应力研究所.2015.河北长河核电厂工程可研阶段地震安全性评价报告[R].北京.
(3)潘华.2011.地震活动性参数确定专题报告[R].北京.
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