长江经济带经济增长对工业污染的影响分析——基于地理距离矩阵的空间杜宾模型
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摘要
基于2000—2015年长江经济带11个省份经济增长和工业污染的省际面板数据,运用环境库兹涅茨(Kuznets)方程建立经济增长与工业污染之间的空间计量模型,分析经济增长对工业"三废"污染的影响效应。研究结果表明:区域人口聚集与环境污染之间存在显著的空间效应;考虑空间因素后,经济增长对"三废"影响的差异性更加显著。控制其他解释变量后,长江经济带经济增长对工业废气污染的省际溢出效应和总效应都呈现类"N"型关系,与工业废水污染存在倒"N"型关系,与工业固体废弃物产生量呈现单调递增线性关系。最后,为长江经济带经济与环境的协调发展提供相关政策建议参考。
In order to analyze the impact of economic growth on industrial "three wastes" pollution, based on the interprovincial panel data of economic growth and industrial pollution in the eleven provinces along the Yangtze River economic belt from 2000 to 2015, this research uses the environmental Kuznets equation to establish a spatial measurement model between economic growth this research uses pollution. The results show that the obvious spatial effect exists between regional population concentration and environmental pollution. The difference of economic growth to the "three wastes"is more significant after considering the spatial factors. After controlling other explanatory variables, the relationship between the economic growth of the Yangtze River economic belt and the inter-provincial spillover effect and total effect of industrial waste gas emissions is "N" type, the relationship with industrial wastewater discharge is inverted "N" type, and monotonically increasing linear relationship with industrial solid waste production. Finally, we provide some relevant policy recommendations for the economy and environment coordinated development of the Yangtze River economic belt.
In order to analyze the impact of economic growth on industrial "three wastes" pollution, based on the interprovincial panel data of economic growth and industrial pollution in the eleven provinces along the Yangtze River economic belt from 2000 to 2015, this research uses the environmental Kuznets equation to establish a spatial measurement model between economic growth this research uses pollution. The results show that the obvious spatial effect exists between regional population concentration and environmental pollution. The difference of economic growth to the "three wastes"is more significant after considering the spatial factors. After controlling other explanatory variables, the relationship between the economic growth of the Yangtze River economic belt and the inter-provincial spillover effect and total effect of industrial waste gas emissions is "N" type, the relationship with industrial wastewater discharge is inverted "N" type, and monotonically increasing linear relationship with industrial solid waste production. Finally, we provide some relevant policy recommendations for the economy and environment coordinated development of the Yangtze River economic belt.
引文
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[12]张英奎,王菲菲,李宪赢.江苏省经济增长与工业环境污染的关系研究--基于向量自回归(VAR)模型分析[J].环境保护,2017(18):46-52.
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[15]朱平辉,袁加军,曾五一.中国工业环境库兹涅茨曲线分析--基于空间面板模型的经验研究[J].中国工业经济,2010(6):65-74.
[16]杨海生,贾佳,周永章,等.贸易、外商直接投资、经济增长与环境污染[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2005(3):99-103.
[17]张贤,周勇.外商直接投资对我国能源强度的空间效应分析[J]数量经济技术经济研究,2007(1):101-108.
[18]王德文,何宇鹏.城乡差距的本质、多面性与政策含义[J].中国农村观察,2005(3):25-37.
[19]Nunn N.Relationship-specificity,incomplete contracts and the pattern of trade[J].The Quaterly Jouranl of Economics,2007122(2):569-600.
[20]冯颖,李晓宁,屈国俊,等.中国水环境污染与经济增长关系研究[J].西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版),2017(6):66-74.
[21]张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952-2000[J].经济研究,2004(10):35-44.
[2]Grossman G M,Krueger A B.Environmental growth and the environment[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995,110(2):353-337.
[3]Shafik N,Bandyopadhyay S.Economic growth and environmental quality:Time series and cross-country evidence[EB/OL].(1992-06-30).http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/833431468739515725/Economic-growth-andenvironmental-quality-time-series-and-cross-country-evidence.
[4]Panayotou T.Empirical tests and policy analysis of environmental degradation at different stages of economic development[R].Geneva:International Labour Office,1993.
[5]Kaufmann K R,Davidsdottira B,Garmhama S,et al.The determinants of atmospheric SO2 concentrations:Reconsidering2001-2013[J].Ecological Economics,1998,25(2):209-220.
[6]MeyerAL,Van Koonten G C,Wang S.Institutional,social and economic roots of deforestation:Further evidence of an environmental Kuznets relation?[EB/OL].(2003-02-05).http://xueshu.baidu.com/usercenter/paper/show?paperid=14c4f6211ba f81bf78bf3a4c24cbbcf0&site=xueshu_se.
[7]Friedl B,Getzner M.Determinants of CO2 emissions in a small open economy[J].Ecological Economics,2003,45(1):133-148.
[8]Kijima M,Nishide K,Ohyama A.EKC-type transitions and environmental policy under pollutant uncertainty and cost irreversibility[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,2011,35(5):746-763.
[9]吴玉鸣,田斌.省域环境库兹涅茨曲线的扩展及其决定因素--空间计量经济学模型实证[J].地理研究,2012(4):627-640.
[10]付云鹏,马树才,宋琪.人口规模、结构对环境的影响效应--基于中国省际面板数据的实证研究[J].生态经济,2015(3):14-18.
[11]顾剑华,车夏辉,蔡翔,等.经济增长与环境污染退耦水平空间统计分析以丝绸之路经济带9省份为例[J].生态经济,2017(12):145-149.
[12]张英奎,王菲菲,李宪赢.江苏省经济增长与工业环境污染的关系研究--基于向量自回归(VAR)模型分析[J].环境保护,2017(18):46-52.
[13]Antweiler W,Copeland B R,Taylor M S.Is free trade good for the environment?[J].American Economic Review,2001,91(4):877-908.
[14]Maddison D.Environmental Kuznets curves:A spatial econometric approach[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2006,51(2):218-230.
[15]朱平辉,袁加军,曾五一.中国工业环境库兹涅茨曲线分析--基于空间面板模型的经验研究[J].中国工业经济,2010(6):65-74.
[16]杨海生,贾佳,周永章,等.贸易、外商直接投资、经济增长与环境污染[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2005(3):99-103.
[17]张贤,周勇.外商直接投资对我国能源强度的空间效应分析[J]数量经济技术经济研究,2007(1):101-108.
[18]王德文,何宇鹏.城乡差距的本质、多面性与政策含义[J].中国农村观察,2005(3):25-37.
[19]Nunn N.Relationship-specificity,incomplete contracts and the pattern of trade[J].The Quaterly Jouranl of Economics,2007122(2):569-600.
[20]冯颖,李晓宁,屈国俊,等.中国水环境污染与经济增长关系研究[J].西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版),2017(6):66-74.
[21]张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952-2000[J].经济研究,2004(10):35-44.
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