淮南市2001-2015年可持续发展研究——基于改进的生态足迹模型
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摘要
近年来,生态足迹模型在可持续发展评价中得到了广泛应用。以淮南市为研究对象,运用区域性的均衡因子和产量因子,对淮南市2001-2015年的生态足迹(EF)、生态承载力(EC)、万元GDP生态足迹(GE)、生态赤字(ED)、生态可持续发展指数(ESI)进行了时间序列的测度和分析。结果表明:①生态足迹呈显著增加趋势,达到7.10 hm2/人,可利用的生态承载力呈缓慢增加趋势,增加到0.11 hm2/人;②随着经济的增长,万元GDP生态足迹呈下降趋势,虽然其资源利用率得到一定提高,但仍未达到安徽省的平均水平;③生态赤字从2001年至2014年在波动中增至最大值7.43 hm2/人,2015年末降为6.99 hm2/人,说明该区域资源供需矛盾仍十分尖锐;④生态可持续发展指数一直小于0.20,长期处于严重不可持续发展状态。最后提出了一些应对措施,研究结果可以为淮南市的生态文明实践、产业结构调整、可持续发展等提供决策依据。
Recently,the ecological footprint model has widely been used to assess regional sustainable development.Based on the Statistical Yearbook of Huainan city,this paper applies the improved ecological footprint model to the evaluate and study the sequence of the ecological footprint(EF),ecological bearing capacity(EC),ecological footprint of GDP(GE),ecological deficit(ED),and ecological sustainability index(ESI) of Huainan city from 2001 to 2015. The results show that:①The EF has significantly increased to 7.10 hm2/person,while the available EC slowly increases to0.11 hm2/person. ②With the growth of the economy,GE continues to decline. However,the resource use efficiency has been improved,it still hasn't reached the average level of Anhui province. ③The ecological deficit from 2001 to2014 shows the fluctuating growth to a maximum of 7.43 hm2/person,and at the end of 2015 to 6.99 hm2/person. It means that the study area has a very sharp contradiction between supply and demand.④The ecological sustainable development index has been below 0.20,which indicates the area has been in the serious and unsustainable development status for a long time. Finally,a series of measures are proposed. The results of this study provide scientific basis for the construction of ecological civilization,the transformation of consumption pattern and sustainable development of Huainan city.
Recently,the ecological footprint model has widely been used to assess regional sustainable development.Based on the Statistical Yearbook of Huainan city,this paper applies the improved ecological footprint model to the evaluate and study the sequence of the ecological footprint(EF),ecological bearing capacity(EC),ecological footprint of GDP(GE),ecological deficit(ED),and ecological sustainability index(ESI) of Huainan city from 2001 to 2015. The results show that:①The EF has significantly increased to 7.10 hm2/person,while the available EC slowly increases to0.11 hm2/person. ②With the growth of the economy,GE continues to decline. However,the resource use efficiency has been improved,it still hasn't reached the average level of Anhui province. ③The ecological deficit from 2001 to2014 shows the fluctuating growth to a maximum of 7.43 hm2/person,and at the end of 2015 to 6.99 hm2/person. It means that the study area has a very sharp contradiction between supply and demand.④The ecological sustainable development index has been below 0.20,which indicates the area has been in the serious and unsustainable development status for a long time. Finally,a series of measures are proposed. The results of this study provide scientific basis for the construction of ecological civilization,the transformation of consumption pattern and sustainable development of Huainan city.
引文
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[19]高静,苏维词,许均.快速城镇化背景下的安徽省生态足迹动态变化研究[J].山东农业科学,2015,47(12):75-79.
[20]何成,胡厚国,叶小群,煤矿城市产业发展对其空间结构演进影响-以淮南市为例[D].合肥:安徽建筑工业学院,2012.
[21]中国城市规划设计研究院环境与景观设计研究所.淮南市城市总体规划(2010-2020)[EB/OL].(2018-01-01)[2018-12-07].http://www.huainan.gov.cn/4971284/72365221.html.
[22]Wackernagel M,OnistoL,BelloP,etal.National natural capital accounting with the ecological footprint concept[J].Ecological Economics,1999(29):375-390.
[23]Madelyn Marrero,Manuel Puerto,etal.Assessing the economic impact and ecological footprint of construction and demolition waste during the urbanization of rural land.Resources[J].Conservation and Recycling,2017(117):160-174.
[24]Lanouar Charfeddine,Zouhair Mrabet.The impact of economic development and social-political factors on ecological footprint:A panel data analysis for15 MENA countries[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2017(76):138-154.
[25]Malin Song,Shuhong Wang,etal.To reduce energy consumption and to maintain rapid economic growth:Analysis of the condition in China based on expended IPAT model[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2011,15(9):5219-5134.
[26]杜加强,舒俭民,张林波.基于净初级生产力的生态足迹模型及其与传统模型的对比分析[J].生态环境学报,2010,19(1):191-196.
[27]淮南市人民政府.淮南市矿产资源总体规划(2008-2015年)[EB/OL].(2013-2-16)[2018-12-07]http://gtj.huainan.gov.cn/14937307/16242451.html.
[28]Ozturk I,Acaravci A.CO2 emissions,energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey[J].Renew Sustain Energy Rev,2010(14):3220-3225.
[2]William E Rees.Revisiting carrying capacity:Areabased indicators of sustainability[J].Population and Environment,1996,17(3):195-215.
[3]Mathis Wackernagel.Methodological advancements in footprint analysis[J].Ecological Economics,2009(68):1925-1927.
[4]张云兰,李声明.广西生态足迹与承载力动态分析[J],南方农业学报,2016,47(9):1622-1628.
[5]杨永奎,王定勇.重庆市直辖以来生态足迹的动态测度与分析[J].生态学报,2007,27(6):2382-2390.
[6]王书玉,卞新民.基于生态足迹理论的县域生态经济系统评价[D].南京:南京农业大学,2006.
[7]薛建春.基于EMD的平朔矿区生态足迹变化及动力学预测分析[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(06):267-270.
[8]梁勇,成升魁,闵庆文.生态足迹方法及其在城市交通环境影响评价中的应用[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2004,28(6):821-824.
[9]王书玉,卞新民.生态足迹理论方法的改进及应用[J],应用生态学报,2007,18(09):1977-1981.
[10]张志强,徐中民,程国栋.生态足迹的概念及计算模型[J],生态经济,2000(10):8-10.
[11]陈涛,徐瑶.基于GIS和生态足迹模型的中国可持续发展状况评价[J].GIS技术,2006(03):73-76.
[12]刘某承,李文华,谢高地.基于净初级生产力的中国生态足迹产量因子测算[J].生态学杂志,2010,29(03):592-597.
[13]世界自然基金会.地球生命力报告-中国2015[DB/OL].(2017-10-16)[2018-12-07]http://www.wwfchina.org/content/press/publicat-ion/2015/.
[14]刘某承,李文华,基于净初级生产力的中国生态足迹均衡因子测算[J].自然资源学报,2009.24(09):1550-1559.
[15]刘某承,李文华,基于净初级生产力的中国各地生态足迹均衡因子测算[J].生态与农村环境学报,2010.26(05):401-406.
[16]刘淼,胡远满,李月辉,等.生态足迹方法及研究进展[J],.生态学杂志,2006.25(03):334-339.
[17]Yale University Center for Environmental Law and Policy.Columbia University Center for international earth science information network[R].2005 Environmental Sustainability Index:Benchmarking National Environmental Stewarship.World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2005,Switzerland Davice,2005.
[18]刘钦普,林振山,冯年华.生态足迹改进模型及在江苏省耕地利用评价中的应用[J].生态学杂志,2007.26(10):1685-1689.
[19]高静,苏维词,许均.快速城镇化背景下的安徽省生态足迹动态变化研究[J].山东农业科学,2015,47(12):75-79.
[20]何成,胡厚国,叶小群,煤矿城市产业发展对其空间结构演进影响-以淮南市为例[D].合肥:安徽建筑工业学院,2012.
[21]中国城市规划设计研究院环境与景观设计研究所.淮南市城市总体规划(2010-2020)[EB/OL].(2018-01-01)[2018-12-07].http://www.huainan.gov.cn/4971284/72365221.html.
[22]Wackernagel M,OnistoL,BelloP,etal.National natural capital accounting with the ecological footprint concept[J].Ecological Economics,1999(29):375-390.
[23]Madelyn Marrero,Manuel Puerto,etal.Assessing the economic impact and ecological footprint of construction and demolition waste during the urbanization of rural land.Resources[J].Conservation and Recycling,2017(117):160-174.
[24]Lanouar Charfeddine,Zouhair Mrabet.The impact of economic development and social-political factors on ecological footprint:A panel data analysis for15 MENA countries[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2017(76):138-154.
[25]Malin Song,Shuhong Wang,etal.To reduce energy consumption and to maintain rapid economic growth:Analysis of the condition in China based on expended IPAT model[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2011,15(9):5219-5134.
[26]杜加强,舒俭民,张林波.基于净初级生产力的生态足迹模型及其与传统模型的对比分析[J].生态环境学报,2010,19(1):191-196.
[27]淮南市人民政府.淮南市矿产资源总体规划(2008-2015年)[EB/OL].(2013-2-16)[2018-12-07]http://gtj.huainan.gov.cn/14937307/16242451.html.
[28]Ozturk I,Acaravci A.CO2 emissions,energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey[J].Renew Sustain Energy Rev,2010(14):3220-3225.
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