经济全球化能够有效抑制“一带一路”沿线国家的生态足迹吗?——来自动态门槛面板模型的经验证据
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摘要
基于1993-2013年"一带一路"沿线55个国家的平行面板数据,运用Hansen动态面板门槛模型,以经济发展水平(人均GDP)为门槛变量,检验经济全球化与生态足迹之间的关系。研究结果表明:在不同的经济门槛范围内,经济全球化对生态足迹存在不同的影响。当经济发展水平小于等于3905美元时,经济全球化水平的提高能够显著降低生态足迹;当经济发展水平超过第一门槛值3905美元时,经济全球化水平对生态足迹的影响从显著抑制转变为促进作用,但是不显著;而当经济发展水平跨越第二门槛值8778美元时,经济全球化水平的提高能够显著刺激生态足迹的提高。当前"一带一路"沿线国家主要集中在第一门槛区间和第三门槛区间,经济全球化对生态足迹的影响出现两极分化态势,其中在第三门槛区间的国家在参与全球化的过程中应对资源的可持续利用引起充分重视,这关系到全球化的可持续发展和"一带一路"建设的顺利推进。
Using the panel threshold model proposed by Hansen, this paper empirically studies the nonlinear relationship between economic globalization and ecological footprint based on panel data of 55 countries along "The Belt and Road" from 1993 to 2013, with economic development level(per capita GDP) as the threshold variable. The results show that there are distinctive relations between economic globalization and ecological footprint divided by thresholds rather than a single linear relationship. In different ranges of thresholds, the influences of economic globalization on ecological footprint are different. When the economic development level is less than per capita $ 3905, the improvement of economic globalization can effectively reduce the ecological footprint; when the economic development level exceeds the first threshold of per capita $ 3905, its improvement has positive effect on the ecological footprint, but the coefficient is not significant; when it exceeds the second threshold of per capita $ 8778, its improvement will increase the ecological footprint significantly. Currently,countries along "The Belt and Road" are mainly concentrated in the first and third threshold interval, and the influence of economic globalization on the ecological footprint has a polarization trend. Attention should be given to the countries in the third threshold interval in the process of globalization, which is closely related to many aspects in sustainable development of globalization and "The Belt and Road Initiative".
Using the panel threshold model proposed by Hansen, this paper empirically studies the nonlinear relationship between economic globalization and ecological footprint based on panel data of 55 countries along "The Belt and Road" from 1993 to 2013, with economic development level(per capita GDP) as the threshold variable. The results show that there are distinctive relations between economic globalization and ecological footprint divided by thresholds rather than a single linear relationship. In different ranges of thresholds, the influences of economic globalization on ecological footprint are different. When the economic development level is less than per capita $ 3905, the improvement of economic globalization can effectively reduce the ecological footprint; when the economic development level exceeds the first threshold of per capita $ 3905, its improvement has positive effect on the ecological footprint, but the coefficient is not significant; when it exceeds the second threshold of per capita $ 8778, its improvement will increase the ecological footprint significantly. Currently,countries along "The Belt and Road" are mainly concentrated in the first and third threshold interval, and the influence of economic globalization on the ecological footprint has a polarization trend. Attention should be given to the countries in the third threshold interval in the process of globalization, which is closely related to many aspects in sustainable development of globalization and "The Belt and Road Initiative".
引文
[1]田颖聪.“一带一路”沿线国家生态环境保护.经济研究参考,2017,(15):104-120.[TIAN Y C.Ecological environment protection of countries along the Belt and Road.Review of Economic Research,2017,(15):104-120.]
[2]WACKERNAGEL M,REES W E,TESTEMALE P.Our Ecological Footprint:Reducing Human Impact on the Earth.Gabriola Island:New Society Publisher,1996.
[3]WACKERNAGEL M,SCHULZ N B,DEUMLING D,et al.Tracking the ecological overshoot of the human economy.PANS,2002,99(14):9266-9271.
[4]樊胜岳,麻亮亮.中国大陆足迹家族的环境库兹涅茨曲线分析.自然资源学报,2016,31(9):1452-1462.[FAN S Y,MA L L.Environmental Kuznets Curve analysis of the footprints family in mainland China.Journal of Natural Resources,2016,31(9):1452-1462.]
[5]OZTURK I,ALMULALI U,SABOORI B.Investigating the environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis:The role of tourism and ecological footprint.Environmental Science&Pollution Research,2016,23(2):1916-1928.
[6]王德录,高标.区域生态足迹与经济增长演进关系及其社会经济动因.水土保持研究,2016,23(5):278-284.[WANGD L,GAO B.Evolution relationship between regional ecological footprint and economic growth and its socioeconomic driving factor.Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(5):278-284.]
[7]TIAN Y,RUTH M,ZHU D.Using the IPAT identity and decoupling analysis to estimate water footprint variations for five major food crops in China from 1978 to 2010.Environment Development&Sustainability,2017,19:1-21.
[8]RICE J.Ecological unequal exchange:International trade and uneven utilization of environmental space in the world system.Social Forces,2007,85(3):1369-1392.
[9]吴德存,刘金平,杨贺.中国省域生态足迹空间效应及社会经济因素研究:基于空间杜宾面板STIRPAT模型.经济问题探索,2017,(3):162-169.[WU D C,LIU J P,YANG H.Chinese provincial special effect of ecological footprint and the social and economic factors:Based on the spatial durbin panel STIRPAT model.Inquiry into Economic Issues,2017,(3):162-169.]
[10]刘建兴,顾晓薇,李广军,等.中国经济发展与生态足迹的关系研究.资源科学,2005,27(5):33-39.[LIU J X,GU XW,LI G J,et al.Economic development and ecological footprint in China.Resources Science,2005,27(5):33-39.]
[11]国务院发展研究中心课题组.进出口贸易与我国经济增长.经济日报,2004-07-20.[The State Council Development Research Center Team.Import and export trade and economic growth in China.The Economic Journal,2004-07-20.]
[12]WACKERNAGEL,MATHIS.Our Ecological Footprint:Reducing Human Impact on the Earth.New York:New Society Publishers,1996.
[13]吴巧生.理解中国工业化与能源消费:基于计量经济模型的实证检验.中国地质大学学报:社会科学版,2010,10(4):49-54.[WU Q S.Understanding the relationship between industrialization and energy consumption in China:Empirical tests of econometric models.Journal of China University of Geosciences:Social Sciences Edition,2010,10(4):49-54.]
[14]冯银,成金华,申俊.中国省域能源生态足迹空间效应研究.中国地质大学学报:社会科学版,2017,17(3):85-96.[FENG Y,CHENG J H,SHEN J.Spatial effect of provincial energy ecological footprint in China.Journal of China University of Geosciences:Social Sciences Edition,2017,17(3):85-96.]
[15]OGUNYOMI O O,DAISI O R,OLUWASHIKEMI R A.Economic globalization,income inequality and economic growth in Nigeria:A static data analysis(1986-2010).ABC Journal of Advanced Research,2013,2:55-68.
[16]BUKHARI M,MUNIR K.Impact of globalization on income inequality in selected Asian countries.Mpra Paper,2016.
(1)此处需要说明的是,模型构建时为了方便说明模型的结构,假设有两个有效门槛值,实际要根据模型估计结果确定门槛值。
(2)此处分析的是“一带一路”沿线国家的经济发展水平所处的门槛区间,因此数据选取期间选择截止到可获取的最近时间即2015年,这种处理方法更符合现实情况。
[2]WACKERNAGEL M,REES W E,TESTEMALE P.Our Ecological Footprint:Reducing Human Impact on the Earth.Gabriola Island:New Society Publisher,1996.
[3]WACKERNAGEL M,SCHULZ N B,DEUMLING D,et al.Tracking the ecological overshoot of the human economy.PANS,2002,99(14):9266-9271.
[4]樊胜岳,麻亮亮.中国大陆足迹家族的环境库兹涅茨曲线分析.自然资源学报,2016,31(9):1452-1462.[FAN S Y,MA L L.Environmental Kuznets Curve analysis of the footprints family in mainland China.Journal of Natural Resources,2016,31(9):1452-1462.]
[5]OZTURK I,ALMULALI U,SABOORI B.Investigating the environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis:The role of tourism and ecological footprint.Environmental Science&Pollution Research,2016,23(2):1916-1928.
[6]王德录,高标.区域生态足迹与经济增长演进关系及其社会经济动因.水土保持研究,2016,23(5):278-284.[WANGD L,GAO B.Evolution relationship between regional ecological footprint and economic growth and its socioeconomic driving factor.Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(5):278-284.]
[7]TIAN Y,RUTH M,ZHU D.Using the IPAT identity and decoupling analysis to estimate water footprint variations for five major food crops in China from 1978 to 2010.Environment Development&Sustainability,2017,19:1-21.
[8]RICE J.Ecological unequal exchange:International trade and uneven utilization of environmental space in the world system.Social Forces,2007,85(3):1369-1392.
[9]吴德存,刘金平,杨贺.中国省域生态足迹空间效应及社会经济因素研究:基于空间杜宾面板STIRPAT模型.经济问题探索,2017,(3):162-169.[WU D C,LIU J P,YANG H.Chinese provincial special effect of ecological footprint and the social and economic factors:Based on the spatial durbin panel STIRPAT model.Inquiry into Economic Issues,2017,(3):162-169.]
[10]刘建兴,顾晓薇,李广军,等.中国经济发展与生态足迹的关系研究.资源科学,2005,27(5):33-39.[LIU J X,GU XW,LI G J,et al.Economic development and ecological footprint in China.Resources Science,2005,27(5):33-39.]
[11]国务院发展研究中心课题组.进出口贸易与我国经济增长.经济日报,2004-07-20.[The State Council Development Research Center Team.Import and export trade and economic growth in China.The Economic Journal,2004-07-20.]
[12]WACKERNAGEL,MATHIS.Our Ecological Footprint:Reducing Human Impact on the Earth.New York:New Society Publishers,1996.
[13]吴巧生.理解中国工业化与能源消费:基于计量经济模型的实证检验.中国地质大学学报:社会科学版,2010,10(4):49-54.[WU Q S.Understanding the relationship between industrialization and energy consumption in China:Empirical tests of econometric models.Journal of China University of Geosciences:Social Sciences Edition,2010,10(4):49-54.]
[14]冯银,成金华,申俊.中国省域能源生态足迹空间效应研究.中国地质大学学报:社会科学版,2017,17(3):85-96.[FENG Y,CHENG J H,SHEN J.Spatial effect of provincial energy ecological footprint in China.Journal of China University of Geosciences:Social Sciences Edition,2017,17(3):85-96.]
[15]OGUNYOMI O O,DAISI O R,OLUWASHIKEMI R A.Economic globalization,income inequality and economic growth in Nigeria:A static data analysis(1986-2010).ABC Journal of Advanced Research,2013,2:55-68.
[16]BUKHARI M,MUNIR K.Impact of globalization on income inequality in selected Asian countries.Mpra Paper,2016.
(1)此处需要说明的是,模型构建时为了方便说明模型的结构,假设有两个有效门槛值,实际要根据模型估计结果确定门槛值。
(2)此处分析的是“一带一路”沿线国家的经济发展水平所处的门槛区间,因此数据选取期间选择截止到可获取的最近时间即2015年,这种处理方法更符合现实情况。
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