基于改进SPA-Markov的压煤山丘区生态演变及评价——以长河流域为例
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摘要
采煤活动强烈干扰流域土地利用,进而对流域生态系统产生严重影响。在综合国内外流域生态演变实例研究的基础上,筛选了采煤生态影响的关键因子,构建适合于压煤山丘区小流域生态影响指标参数,结合时间序列从小流域尺度研究了压煤山丘区采煤影响下的土地利用变化规律,在此基础上,构建了小流域采煤生态影响评价综合影响指数,利用改进的集对分析(SPA)法对长河流域的生态等级进行评判,同时引入马尔可夫链(Markov)对2020年流域生态演变状况进行预测。研究结果表明,(1)长河流域采煤对耕地演变的驱动指数最大,其次是建设用地、草地、林地和水域,流域综合土地利用变化采煤驱动指数由2005-2010年的4.76升高至2010-2015年的5.04,采煤对流域土地利用变化的驱动力逐步增强。(2)2005-2010年期间,流域生态稳定性整体呈下降趋势,2010-2020年间又逐步改善并趋于稳定,长河流域采煤生态影响等级由2005年的Ⅲ级到2015年的Ⅱ级,2020年的Ⅱ级,总体上长河流域生态稳定性呈波动上升的趋势。(3)从分项指标上,长河流域2005-2015年植被覆盖指数、水体密度指数逐渐降低,土地退化指数和生物丰度指数升高,采煤塌陷损毁指数和矿区干扰指数升高,导致生态响应指数动态波动,采煤导致的植被覆盖减少、水体密度降低等负面效应还应引起重视。该文可为小流域生态演变规律研究在方法上提供一种借鉴,为北方村庄压煤山丘区土地综合整治提供参考依据。
Mining activities strongly influence land use in the watershed, and then have a serious impact on the watershed ecosystem.This paper summarizes and reviews the domestic and foreign relevant research on the evolution of the watershed, selects the key factors of the ecological impact of coal mining, constructs the ecological impact assessment index for small watershed in the coal hilly area, and follows the time series to focus on the rules of land use of coal mining on small watershed scale. On this basis, an eco-impact index is constructed. And then, this paper uses the improved Set Pair Analysis method to evaluate the ecological level of Changhe watershed, and introduces the Markov chain theory to forecast the ecological evolution of the watershed in 2020. The results show that:(1) The coal mining on the basin scale of cultivated land change is the strongest driving force, followed by the land use change of the construction land, grassland, forest land and water. The comprehensive land use change of the coal mining driving index increased from 4.76 in 2005-2010 to 5.04 in 2010-2015, and the driving force of coal mining to the land use change was gradually increasing;(2) During the period of 2005-2010, the ecology and environment of the Changhe watershed was decreasing;the ecological conditions in 2010-2015 gradually improved and stabilized. There was an overall improvement from Ⅲ to Ⅱ in the ecological impact level of Changhe watershed from 2005, 2015, and 2020;(3) From the sub-index, the vegetation coverage index and the water body density index decreased gradually in the river basin from 2005 to 2015, the land degradation index and the biological abundance index increased, coal mining subsidence damage index and mining disturbance index increased, leading to the ecological impact index dynamic fluctuations. Coal mining caused a decrease of vegetation, water density and other negative effects should also be taken seriously. This paper provides references for the study of ecological evolution of small watersheds, and for the comprehensive land remediation in the northern hilly villages of the Changhe watershed.
Mining activities strongly influence land use in the watershed, and then have a serious impact on the watershed ecosystem.This paper summarizes and reviews the domestic and foreign relevant research on the evolution of the watershed, selects the key factors of the ecological impact of coal mining, constructs the ecological impact assessment index for small watershed in the coal hilly area, and follows the time series to focus on the rules of land use of coal mining on small watershed scale. On this basis, an eco-impact index is constructed. And then, this paper uses the improved Set Pair Analysis method to evaluate the ecological level of Changhe watershed, and introduces the Markov chain theory to forecast the ecological evolution of the watershed in 2020. The results show that:(1) The coal mining on the basin scale of cultivated land change is the strongest driving force, followed by the land use change of the construction land, grassland, forest land and water. The comprehensive land use change of the coal mining driving index increased from 4.76 in 2005-2010 to 5.04 in 2010-2015, and the driving force of coal mining to the land use change was gradually increasing;(2) During the period of 2005-2010, the ecology and environment of the Changhe watershed was decreasing;the ecological conditions in 2010-2015 gradually improved and stabilized. There was an overall improvement from Ⅲ to Ⅱ in the ecological impact level of Changhe watershed from 2005, 2015, and 2020;(3) From the sub-index, the vegetation coverage index and the water body density index decreased gradually in the river basin from 2005 to 2015, the land degradation index and the biological abundance index increased, coal mining subsidence damage index and mining disturbance index increased, leading to the ecological impact index dynamic fluctuations. Coal mining caused a decrease of vegetation, water density and other negative effects should also be taken seriously. This paper provides references for the study of ecological evolution of small watersheds, and for the comprehensive land remediation in the northern hilly villages of the Changhe watershed.
引文
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牛冲槐,张敏,樊燕萍,2006.山西省煤炭开采对生态环境影响评价[J].太原理工大学学报,37(6):649-653.NIU C H,ZHANG M,FAN Y P,2006.Assessment of the impact of coal mining on ecological environment in Shanxi province[J].Journal of Taiyuan University of Technology,37(6):649-653.
璩路路,师学义,刘畅,2016.基于改进SPA法的土地利用规划环境影响跟踪评价[J].水土保持研究,23(4):104-109.QU L L,SHI X Y,LIU C,2016.Environmental impact tracking assessment of land use planning based on improved SPA method[J].Soil and Water Conservation Research,23(4):104-109.
任慧君,李素萃,刘永兵,.2016.生态脆弱区露天煤矿生态修复效应研究[J].煤炭工程,48(2):127-130.REN H J,LI S Z,LIU Y B,2016.Study on the ecological restoration effect of open-pit coal mines in ecologically fragile areas[J].Coal Engineering,48(2):127-130.
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帅红,李景保,2013.基于投影寻踪的洞庭湖生态系统健康评价[J].长江流域资源与环境,22(11):1477-1483.SHUAI H,LI J B,2013.Ecosystem health assessment of Dongting Lake based on projection pursuit[J].Resources and Environment of Yangtze River Basin,22(11):1477-1483.
王贵珍,马素洁,杨思维,等,2017.基于RUE的不同草地类生态评价研究:以河西走廊为例[J].自然资源学报,32(4):582-594.WANG G Z,MA S J,YANG X X,et al.,2017.Study on the ecological evaluation of different grasslands based on RUE:Take Hexi Corridor as an example[J].Journal of Natural Resources,32(4):582-594.
王孟本,2003.“生态环境”概念的起源与内涵[J].生态学报,23(9):1910-1914.WANG M B,2003.Origin and connotation of the concept of“ecological environment”[J].Journal of Ecology,23(9):1910-1914.
张笑然,白中科,曹银贵,等,2016.特大型露天煤矿区生态系统演变及其生态储存估算[J].生态学报,36(16):5038-5048.ZHANG X R,BAI Z K,CAO Y G,et al.,2016.Evolution of ecosystem and estimation of ecological storage in super large open pit coal mining area[J].Journal of Ecology,36(16):5038-5048.
张杨,刘艳芳,顾渐萍,等,2011.武汉市土地利用覆被变化与生态环境效应研究[J].地理科学,31(10):1280-1285.ZHANG Y,LIU Y F,GU J P,et al.,2011.Effects of land use and cover change and ecological environment in Wuhan[J].Geographic Science,31(10):1280-1285.
张志强,王雪梅,2007.国际全球变化研究发展态势文献计量评价[J].地球科学进展,22(7):760-765.ZHANG Z Q,WANG X M,2007.Bibliometric evaluation of the development trend of international global change research[J].Progress in Geosciences,22(7):760-765.
赵克勤,1994.集对分析及其初步应用[J].大自然探索(1):67-72.ZHAO K Q,1994.Set Pair Analysis and Its Preliminary Application[J].Nature Exploration(1):67-72.
钟莉娜,王军,赵文武,等,2017.多流域降雨和土地利用格局对土壤侵蚀影响的比较分析:以陕北黄土丘陵沟壑区为例[J].地理学报,72(3):432-443.ZHONG L N,WANG J,ZHAO W W,et al.,2017.A comparative analysis of the impacts of rainfall and land use patterns on soil erosion in multi-basins:a case study of Loess Hilly and gully areas in northern Shaanxi[J].Journal of Geography,72(3):432-443.
周启刚,张晓媛,王兆林,2014.基于正态云模型的三峡库区土地利用生态风险评价[J].农业工程学报,30(23):289-297.ZHOU Q G,ZHANG X Y,WANG Z L,2014.Ecological risk assessment of land use in Three Gorges Reservoir area based on normal cloud model[J].Journal of Agricultural Engineering,30(23):289-297.
邹志红,王乐娟,2009.湖泊富营养化趋势的灰色马尔柯夫预测[J].环境科学学报,29(2):427-432.ZOU Z H,WANG L J,2009.Grey Markov Prediction of Lake Eutrophication Trend[J].Journal of Environmental Science,29(2):427-432.
CRIST P J,KOHLEY T W,OAKLEAF J,2000.Assessing land-use impacts on biodiversity using an expert systems tool[J].Landscape Ecology,15(1):47-62.
ETIENNE R S,VOS C C,JANSEN M J W,2003.Ecological impact assessment in data-poor systems:a case study on metapopulation persistence[J].Environmental Management,32(6):760-777.
FU B,YU L,LüY,et al.,2011.Assessing the soil erosion control service of ecosystems change in the Loess Plateau of China[J].Ecological Complexity,8(4):284-293.
GONTIER M,2007.Scale issues in the assessment of ecological impacts using a GIS-based habitat model:a case study for the Stockholm region[J].Environmental Impact Assessment Review,27(5):440-459.
JIA Y H,SHAO M A,2014.Dynamics of deep soil moisture in response to vegetational restoration on the Loess Plateau of China[J].Journal of Hydrology,519(PA):523-531.
LI X,PETERSON J,LIU G J,et al.,2001.Assessing regional sustainability:the case of land use and land cover change in the middle Yiluo catchment of the Yellow River basin,China[J].Applied Geography,21(1):87-106.
高春泥,程金花,陈晓冰,2016.基于灰色关联法的北京山区水土保持生态安全评价[J].自然灾害学报,25(2):69-77.GAO C N,CHENG J H,CHEN X B,2016.Evaluation of ecological security of soil and water conservation in Beijing mountainous area based on grey correlation method[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,25(2):69-77.
高奇,师学义,张琛,等,2014.县域农业生态环境质量动态评价及预测[J].农业工程学报,30(5):228-237,293.GAO Q,SHI X Y,ZHANG C,et al.,2014.Dynamic evaluation and prediction of county agricultural ecological environment quality[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,30(5):228-237,293.
蒋云良,徐从富,2006.集对分析理论及其应用研究进展[J].计算机科学,33(1):205-209.JIANG Y L,XU C F,2006.Progress in set pair analysis theory and its application[J].Computer Science,33(1):205-209.
李炳意,2016.黄土高原煤矿区土地生态环境评价与动态分析[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京).LI B Y,2016.Land ecological environment assessment and dynamic analysis in coal mining area of Loess Plateau[D].Beijing:China University of Geosciences(Beijing).
牛冲槐,张敏,樊燕萍,2006.山西省煤炭开采对生态环境影响评价[J].太原理工大学学报,37(6):649-653.NIU C H,ZHANG M,FAN Y P,2006.Assessment of the impact of coal mining on ecological environment in Shanxi province[J].Journal of Taiyuan University of Technology,37(6):649-653.
璩路路,师学义,刘畅,2016.基于改进SPA法的土地利用规划环境影响跟踪评价[J].水土保持研究,23(4):104-109.QU L L,SHI X Y,LIU C,2016.Environmental impact tracking assessment of land use planning based on improved SPA method[J].Soil and Water Conservation Research,23(4):104-109.
任慧君,李素萃,刘永兵,.2016.生态脆弱区露天煤矿生态修复效应研究[J].煤炭工程,48(2):127-130.REN H J,LI S Z,LIU Y B,2016.Study on the ecological restoration effect of open-pit coal mines in ecologically fragile areas[J].Coal Engineering,48(2):127-130.
任宇飞,方创琳,2017京津冀城市群县域尺度生态效率评价及空间格局分析[J].地理科学进展,36(1):87-98.REN Y F,FANG C L,Eco-efficiency evaluation and spatial pattern analysis at county scale of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration in 2017[J].Progress in Geographic Science,36(1):87-98.
帅红,李景保,2013.基于投影寻踪的洞庭湖生态系统健康评价[J].长江流域资源与环境,22(11):1477-1483.SHUAI H,LI J B,2013.Ecosystem health assessment of Dongting Lake based on projection pursuit[J].Resources and Environment of Yangtze River Basin,22(11):1477-1483.
王贵珍,马素洁,杨思维,等,2017.基于RUE的不同草地类生态评价研究:以河西走廊为例[J].自然资源学报,32(4):582-594.WANG G Z,MA S J,YANG X X,et al.,2017.Study on the ecological evaluation of different grasslands based on RUE:Take Hexi Corridor as an example[J].Journal of Natural Resources,32(4):582-594.
王孟本,2003.“生态环境”概念的起源与内涵[J].生态学报,23(9):1910-1914.WANG M B,2003.Origin and connotation of the concept of“ecological environment”[J].Journal of Ecology,23(9):1910-1914.
张笑然,白中科,曹银贵,等,2016.特大型露天煤矿区生态系统演变及其生态储存估算[J].生态学报,36(16):5038-5048.ZHANG X R,BAI Z K,CAO Y G,et al.,2016.Evolution of ecosystem and estimation of ecological storage in super large open pit coal mining area[J].Journal of Ecology,36(16):5038-5048.
张杨,刘艳芳,顾渐萍,等,2011.武汉市土地利用覆被变化与生态环境效应研究[J].地理科学,31(10):1280-1285.ZHANG Y,LIU Y F,GU J P,et al.,2011.Effects of land use and cover change and ecological environment in Wuhan[J].Geographic Science,31(10):1280-1285.
张志强,王雪梅,2007.国际全球变化研究发展态势文献计量评价[J].地球科学进展,22(7):760-765.ZHANG Z Q,WANG X M,2007.Bibliometric evaluation of the development trend of international global change research[J].Progress in Geosciences,22(7):760-765.
赵克勤,1994.集对分析及其初步应用[J].大自然探索(1):67-72.ZHAO K Q,1994.Set Pair Analysis and Its Preliminary Application[J].Nature Exploration(1):67-72.
钟莉娜,王军,赵文武,等,2017.多流域降雨和土地利用格局对土壤侵蚀影响的比较分析:以陕北黄土丘陵沟壑区为例[J].地理学报,72(3):432-443.ZHONG L N,WANG J,ZHAO W W,et al.,2017.A comparative analysis of the impacts of rainfall and land use patterns on soil erosion in multi-basins:a case study of Loess Hilly and gully areas in northern Shaanxi[J].Journal of Geography,72(3):432-443.
周启刚,张晓媛,王兆林,2014.基于正态云模型的三峡库区土地利用生态风险评价[J].农业工程学报,30(23):289-297.ZHOU Q G,ZHANG X Y,WANG Z L,2014.Ecological risk assessment of land use in Three Gorges Reservoir area based on normal cloud model[J].Journal of Agricultural Engineering,30(23):289-297.
邹志红,王乐娟,2009.湖泊富营养化趋势的灰色马尔柯夫预测[J].环境科学学报,29(2):427-432.ZOU Z H,WANG L J,2009.Grey Markov Prediction of Lake Eutrophication Trend[J].Journal of Environmental Science,29(2):427-432.
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