A Study of the Recurrence Probability of Strong Earthquake on Faults in Mainland China
详细信息
- 责任者：Zhu Yuanqing (Shanghai Earthquake Administration ; Shanghai 200062 ; China) ; Xie Chaodi
- 刊名：Earthquake
- 出版年：2013
- 卷期：33(4)
- 关键词：断层 ; faults ; 地震危险性 ; seismic risk ; 中国 ; China
- 页码：p.1-10
- 图表：6 illus., 2 tables, 35 refs.
- 分类号：0500
- issnNo：ISSN1000-3274
- isbnNo：CN11-1893/P
摘要
Based on the physical model of Brownian passage time and earthquake preparation process,the probabilities of strong earthquake recurrence have been calculated for major active faults in mainland China for different time spans,and the seismic risk on each fault is studied.Results show that the earthquake probabilities on the Xianshuihe fault,Altyn Tagh fault,East Kunlun fault and Xiaojiang fault are obviously bigger than other faults in the mainland,these faults are experiencing high-level states of stress accumulation,and may have high seismic risks of strong earthquake recurrences in the future.