The Risk Assessment Model of Strong Earthquake Prediction and Is Application
详细信息
- 责任者：Huang Tenglang (Earthquake Administration of Guangdong Province ; Guangzhou 510070 ; China) ; Huang Yuanmin
- 刊名：South China Journal of Seismology
- 出版年：2013
- 卷期：33(3)
- 关键词：强震 ; strong earthquakes ; 地震预测 ; earthquake prediction
- 页码：p.22-28
- 图表：4 tables, 9 refs.
- 分类号：0500
- issnNo：ISSN1001-8662
- isbnNo：CN44-1266/P
摘要
It is a risk decision to predict strong earhquakes. If the risk is assessed using quantitative and qualitative methods and the scientific basis according to the assessment is provided for the government decision making before announcing, then the possible loss caused by earthquake can be reduced. We sum up the possible losses caused by earthquake prediction from aspects of people evacuation, disaster response and preparedness, stopping production of social enterprises and maintenance of social order. A calculation model is constructed and the losses of predicting the given M6.0 Yangjiang, M5.8 Yingjiang and M7.0 Lijiang earthquakes are calculated in comparison with the real earthquake losses. The results show that the assessment model for loss of prediction could provide reference for government decision making, and the level of economic development of the target area should be considered when the government makes a risk decision according to the earthquake prediction information.