• 责任者：Liu Guo (State Key Laboratory of Geological Hazard Prevention and Geological Environment Protection ; Chengdu University of Technology ; Chengdu 610059 ; China) ; Huang Sheng
• 刊名：Journal of Chengdu University of Technology
• 出版年：2007
• 卷期：34(4)
• 关键词：径流 ; runoff ; 混沌 ; 金沙江 ; Jinsha River
• 页码：p.390-393
• 图表：5 illus., 8 refs.
• issnNo：ISSN1671-9727
• isbnNo：CN51-1634/N

Based on the introduction of the main quantitative indexes of correlation dimension D₂ and Kolmogorov entropy in rebuilding time series imbedding space, this paper discusses the methods of searching for chaos in the monthly runoff time series at the Xiaohuangguayuan and Caijiacun stations in Jinsha River of the Yangtze River upstream. The primary component analysis method is used to validate their chaotic character. The result shows that the forecasting length for this monthly runoff time series would not exceed 7~9 months. This time series chaotic analysis will provide a scientific basis for the runoff forecasting in Jinsha River.