Statistical Test Methods of Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Probabilistic ForecastingⅡ: N-Test and L-Test Method
详细信息
- 责任者：Gao Chaojun (Earthquake Administration of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region ; Xinjiang 830011 ; China) ; Jiang Changsheng
- 刊名：Earthquake
- 出版年：2013
- 卷期：33(1)
- 关键词：地震危险性 ; seismic risk
- 页码：p.47-55
- 图表：illus., 1 table, 19 refs.
- 分类号：0500
- issnNo：ISSN1000-3274
- isbnNo：CN11-1893/P
摘要
In this paper,we introduce the principles and developments of the N-test and L-test methods which have been used to evaluate earthquake probabilistic forecasting models as routine statistical test methods in the CSEP(Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) project.Selecting the middle section of Tianshan region as the study area,we perform evaluation of the Smoothed Seismicity model for intermediate-term and long-term retrospective forecasting with N-test and L-test methods.The results show that N-test and L-test methods are efficient to evaluate the earthquake prediction models and can be used to optimize parameter setting in the earthquake forecasting models.