• 责任者：Liu Yi (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research ; CAS ; Beijing 100101 ; China) ; Wu Shaohong
• 刊名：Geographical Research
• 出版年：2011
• 卷期：30(2)
• 关键词：震灾 ; seismic hazard ; 山西 ; Shanxi Province
• 页码：p.195-208
• 图表：4 illus., 9 tables, 41 refs.
• 分类号：1800
• issnNo：ISSN1000-0585
• isbnNo：CN11-1848/P

///In this paper, the classical disaster risk-assessing model was modified to assess natural disasters risks, especially in quantifying possible loss and risk severe level. Disaster risk was attributed to three main factors: disaster damage force (D), disaster resilience society exposure (E), and disaster-breeding environment (P). Disaster risk is the function of these three factors. Damage force (D) indicates damage rate of a disaster in a certain intensity, which might be obtained from results of disaster events in the past. Exposure (E) includes mainly personnel, property/economic and natural resources. D and E give the quantified vulnerability of a region. Disaster-breeding environment (P) gives the occurrence possibility of environmental conditions, such as geological structure, land surface materials, land cover, and cycling occurrence event etc. P was characterized by a parameter in this paper. Shanxi Province, a high frequent earthquake region, was taken as a case study. This method has improved in two aspects: firstly quantifying possible losses, and secondly avoiding the constraint in disaster prediction to make the calculation possible.