Scientific Practice of the Short-Term Prediction of Wen’an M5.1 Earthquake on July 4, 2006

详细信息   

• 责任者：Shao Yongxin (Earthquake Administration of Tianjin Municipality ; Tianjin 300201 ; China) ; Wang Junguo
• 刊名：Earthquake
• 出版年：2008
• 卷期：28(2)
• 关键词：强震 ; strong shocks ; 地震预测 ; earthquake prediction ; 河北 ; Hebei
• 页码：p.108-114
• 图表：4 illus., 1 table, 2 refs.
• 分类号：0500
• issnNo：ISSN1000-3274
• isbnNo：CN11-1893/P

摘要

This paper looked back the prediction process before Wen’an M_s5.1 earthquake on July 4, 2006 by Earthquake Administration of Tianjin Municipality. Before Wen’an earthquake, there were seismic activity anomalies and 4 anomalies of underground fluid in Tianjin and its adjacent area. According to anomaly of underground fluid, it was considered that the occurrence time would be middle July and based on combination of seismicity and underground fluid anomalies, the magnitude was predicted as around M_L = 4.5. The results have been recorded on the weekly and monthly discussion meeting of Earthquake Administration of Tianjin Municipality before the earthquake. The results indicate that the occurrence time and location is roughly right, the magnitude is slightly deviated.