- 责任者：Wang Qiuliang (Institute of Seismology ; China Earthquake Administration ; Wuhan 430071 ; China) ; Yao Yunsheng
- 刊名：Seismology and Geology
- 出版年：2009
- 卷期：31(2)
- 关键词：水库地震 ; reservoir earthquake ; 诱发地震 ; induced earthquakes ; 长江三峡 ; Yangtze River Valley
- 页码：p.287-294
- 图表：1 illus., 3 tables, 17 refs.
- 分类号：0500
- issnNo：ISSN0253-4967
- isbnNo：CN11-2192/P
Based on field investigation in the reservoir head area of the Yangtze Three Gorges, combining with its seismogeological background and past research achievements,the reservoir head area is divided into 31 predictive units, and together with 8 impact factors, the possibility and magnitude of reservoir induced seismicity (RIS) are predicted using statistical forecasting model. The results show as follows: 1) it is quite possible that ML=3.0～4.5 earthquakes will be triggered along the Jiuwanxi-Lukouzi Fault and Xiannvshan Fault in the reservoir area; 2) according to the analysis of earthquakes at home and abroad, the RIS takes place mainly in carbonatite and igneous rocks, and concentrates in karst developing segment, yet it is little possible that earthquake happens in clastic rock area; and 3) around the Gaoqiao Fault, tectonic reservoir-induced earthquake is quite likely to occur.