Comments on the paper “Two independent real-time precursors of the 7.8 M earthquake in Ecuador based on radioactive and geodetic processes – Powerful tools for an early warning system” by Toulkeridis et al. (2019)
详细信息 来源：Journal of Geodynamics 发布日期：2021年1月29日
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- 标题：Comments on the paper “Two independent real-time precursors of the 7.8 M earthquake in Ecuador based on radioactive and geodetic processes – Powerful tools for an early warning system” by Toulkeridis et al. (2019)
- 关键词：Earthquake precursor,Radiation,GPS,Forecast,Early war
- 作者：Hugo Yepes,Jean-Mathieu Nocquet,Benjamin Bernard,Pablo B. Palacios,Sandro Vaca,Santiago Aguaiza
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COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">In the paper entitled 0; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">“0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">Two independent real-time precursors of the 7.8 M earthquake in Ecuador based on 0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">radioactive and geodetic processes 0; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">– 0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">Powerful tools for an early warning system0; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">”0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">, Toulkeridis et al. (2019) claim 0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">that they found radiation and GPS signal anomalies before the April 160,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 5.08pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">th 0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">2016 Pedernales earthquake (Ecuador) 0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">and that their 0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">fifi0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">ndings can be used to forecast earthquakes in the medium and short term in active continental 0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">margins. Using an extended data set that overlaps Toulkeridis et al. (2019) study period, we 0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">fifi0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">nd: (1) the success 0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">rate of predicting earthquakes using radiation anomalies is 2.5 %; (2) radiation anomalies, including the one 0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">recorded during the hours before the M 7.8 earthquake, temporally correlate with local rainfall; (3) Toulkeridis 0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">et al. (2019) GPS results are physically unrealistic and inconsistent with previously published GPS and InSAR 0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">analysis; (4) there is no anomaly in the GPS time series before the earthquake. Therefore, Toulkeridis et al. 0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">(2019) results are not reliable evidence of precursors to the M 7.8 earthquake in 2016 in Ecuador, and their 0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">proposed method cannot be used to forecast earthquakes.