• 标题：Scenarios for geothermal energy deployment in Europe
• 关键词：Geothermal energy,Power & heat,Climate change,Europe,Energy system,Integrated assessment
• 作者：Francesco Dalla Longa, Larissa P. Nogueira, Jon Limberger,Jan-Diederik van Wees, Bob van der Zwaan

The use of geothermal energy in Europe is expected to grow rapidly over the next decades, since this energy resource is generally abundant, ubiquitous, versatile, low-carbon, and non-intermittent. We have expanded and adapted the integrated assessment model TIAM-ECN to more adequately reflflect geothermal energy potentials and to better represent the various sectors in which geothermal energy could possibly be used. With the updated version of TIAM-ECN, we quantify how large the share of geothermal energy in Europe could grow until 2050, and analyze how this expansion could be stimulated by climate policy and technological progress. We investigate geothermal energy’s two main applications: power and heat production. For the former, we project an increase to around 100e210 TWh/yr in 2050, depending on assumptions regarding climate ambition and cost reductions for enhanced geothermal resource systems. For the latter, with applications in residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural sectors, we anticipate under the same assumptions a rise to about 880e1050 TWh/yr in 2050. We estimate that by the middle of the century geothermal energy plants could contribute approximately 4e7% to European electricity generation. We foresee a European geothermal energy investment market (supply plus demand side) possibly worth about 160e210 billion US$/yr by mid-century.

 © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)