Comments on the paper “Two independent real-time precursors of the 7.8 M earthquake in Ecuador based on radioactive and geodetic processes – Powerful tools for an early warning system” by Toulkeridis et al. (2019)
详细信息 来源：Journal of Geodynamics 发布日期：2021年1月29日
- 标题：Comments on the paper “Two independent real-time precursors of the 7.8 M earthquake in Ecuador based on radioactive and geodetic processes – Powerful tools for an early warning system” by Toulkeridis et al. (2019)
- 关键词：Earthquake precursor,Radiation,GPS,Forecast,Early war
- 作者：Hugo Yepes,Jean-Mathieu Nocquet,Benjamin Bernard,Pablo B. Palacios,Sandro Vaca,Santiago Aguaiza
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style="FONT-FAMILY: AdvOT596495f2; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">In the paper entitled style="FONT-FAMILY: AdvOT596495f2+20; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">“style="FONT-FAMILY: AdvOT596495f2; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">Two independent real-time precursors of the 7.8 M earthquake in Ecuador based on style="FONT-FAMILY: AdvOT596495f2; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">radioactive and geodetic processes style="FONT-FAMILY: AdvOT596495f2+20; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">– style="FONT-FAMILY: AdvOT596495f2; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">Powerful tools for an early warning systemstyle="FONT-FAMILY: AdvOT596495f2+20; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">”style="FONT-FAMILY: AdvOT596495f2; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">, Toulkeridis et al. (2019) claim style="FONT-FAMILY: AdvOT596495f2; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">that they found radiation and GPS signal anomalies before the April 16style="FONT-FAMILY: AdvOT596495f2; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 5.08pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">th style="FONT-FAMILY: AdvOT596495f2; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">2016 Pedernales earthquake (Ecuador) style="FONT-FAMILY: AdvOT596495f2; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">and that their style="FONT-FAMILY: AdvOT596495f2+fb; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">fifistyle="FONT-FAMILY: AdvOT596495f2; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">ndings can be used to forecast earthquakes in the medium and short term in active continental style="FONT-FAMILY: AdvOT596495f2; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">margins. Using an extended data set that overlaps Toulkeridis et al. (2019) study period, we style="FONT-FAMILY: AdvOT596495f2+fb; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">fifistyle="FONT-FAMILY: AdvOT596495f2; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">nd: (1) the success style="FONT-FAMILY: AdvOT596495f2; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">rate of predicting earthquakes using radiation anomalies is 2.5 %; (2) radiation anomalies, including the one style="FONT-FAMILY: AdvOT596495f2; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">recorded during the hours before the M 7.8 earthquake, temporally correlate with local rainfall; (3) Toulkeridis style="FONT-FAMILY: AdvOT596495f2; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">et al. (2019) GPS results are physically unrealistic and inconsistent with previously published GPS and InSAR style="FONT-FAMILY: AdvOT596495f2; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">analysis; (4) there is no anomaly in the GPS time series before the earthquake. Therefore, Toulkeridis et al. style="FONT-FAMILY: AdvOT596495f2; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">(2019) results are not reliable evidence of precursors to the M 7.8 earthquake in 2016 in Ecuador, and their style="FONT-FAMILY: AdvOT596495f2; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">proposed method cannot be used to forecast earthquakes.