libri; FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0000pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">Cold regions contain a large amount of soil organic carbon, and the warming-accelerated loss of this carbon pool could cause important feedback to climatic change. The changes of carbon budgets in cold regions are poorly quantified especially for the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) due to limited field observation data. By considering the soil freeze–thaw process and establishing new plant functional types with localized parameters, we used the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) model to simulate the changes of carbon budget on the QTP during 1980–2016. The model was calibrated and validated using carbon flux data from eddy covariance observations at 16 sites. The results showed that the QTP has assimilated 43.16 Tg C/yr during 1980–2016, with permafrost and non-permafrost regions accounting for approximately 15% and 85% of the carbon sink, respectively. During the past four decades, the gross primary production and ecosystem respiration have increased by 1.74 and 2.04 Tg C/yr 2 , resulting in that the carbon sink on the QTP has weakened during 1980–2016. Moreover, the weakening of carbon sink is more pronounced in the non-permafrost regions. We project that the ecosystems will release 12.30 and 24.40 Tg C by 2080–2100 under the moderate and high shared socio-economic pathways (SSP 370 and SSP 585), respectively. This could largely offset the carbon sink and even shift the carbon sink to carbon source on the QTP.
